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Horse racing has gone six years without a Triple Crown winner, but there’s buzz that Journalism could be the first to pull it off since Justify in 2018. He’ll be among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses starting that quest on Saturday at 6:57 p.m. ET when the 151st Kentucky Derby goes to post at Churchill Downs. Journalism enters the Kentucky Derby 2025 off four straight wins, including three graded-stakes victories. He’s the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, and looking at recent results from horses is a common way to help craft your 2025 Kentucky Derby betting strategy.

However, recent history shows that Kentucky Derby winners don’t always come to Churchill Downs on a hot streak. For example, last year’s winner, Mystik Dan, finished third in the Arkansas Derby before shipping to Churchill Downs. Excluding Authentic’s win in October 2020, here are the most recent winners of May Kentucky Derby’s and where they finished in the lead-up:

• 2024: Mystik Dan (3rd, Arkansas Derby)
• 2023: Mage (2nd, Florida Derby)
• 2022: Rich Strike (3rd, Jeff Ruby Steaks)
• 2021: Mandaloun (6th, Louisiana Derby)
• 2019: Country House (3rd, Arkansas Derby)

If this trend continues, Journalism, Sandman, Rodriguez, Luxor Cafe, Burnham Square, Tiztastic, Admire Daytona, American Promise, and Final Gambit would all be excluded from potential 2025 Kentucky Derby picks.

SportsLine expert Jody Demling is willing to buck the trends in his search for top horses in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Now that post positions have been drawn, he breaks down the lineup and makes $162 worth of Win-Place-Show, Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta bets that you could use on horse racing apps like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET.

Demling is a fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, He has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years! He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including 2023 when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta. He also hit the Preakness in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks could be way up. See Jody’s full Kentucky Derby analysis only at SportsLine.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby surprises

One surprise is that he’s NOT picking Journalism (3-1) to win in his final leaderboard, even though Demling believes is a deserving favorite in the 2025 Run for the Roses. Journalism is 4-for-5 in his career, but those races have all come at Del Mar, Santa Anita or Los Alamitos. He’s never faced fellow Kentucky Derby favorites Sovereignty or Sandman. Demling isn’t willing to play odds of 3-1 on the morning line in what he considers a relatively-open 2025 Kentucky Derby. Furthermore, Demling could see those odds dropping even more before post time, which ultimately led him to another top horse in his 2025 Kentucky Derby bets. 

He’s also fading Sandman for Kentucky Derby betting, even though he’s one of the top favorites at 6-1, Demling told SportsLine: “Has always had a ton of potential; put it together in the Arkansas Derby and will be running in the end; but I am just worried about how he was still swerving down the stretch in his last race. He looks too immature to win the Derby, plus the No. 17 post position has never produced a Derby winner.”

Instead, Demling is all over several double-digit longshots, including a 30-1 choice he’s including in his superfecta! Who is it? Find out here.

Plus, which of Bob Baffert’s horses is his best shot for a seventh official Kentucky Derby victory? Is a horse which qualified outside of the U.S. worth a bet like Forever Young in 2024 (3rd in the Derby)? Which longshot 20-1 closer is worth keeping an eye on? Find out here.

Use promo code “JODY” for 60 percent off your first three months of SportsLine. Join SportsLine today and access Jody’s full analysis of Kentucky Derby 151. 

2025 Kentucky Derby odds, futures, horses, post positions