2025 Kentucky Derby predictions, odds, date, horses, post positions: Surprising picks by horse racing expert

Imagn Images

The road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby has been unfolding since last September ahead of Saturday’s Kentucky Derby 2025. The Santa Anita Derby, the top West Coast prep race, was won by Journalism. The Arkansas Derby was won by Sandman and Sovereignty won the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Those horses are the top three in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, with Journalism favored at 3-1, followed by Sovereignty at 5-1 and Sandman at 6-1. Other 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders include Burnham Square (12-1), who won the Blue Grass Stakes, and Rodriguez (12-1), the winner of the Wood Memorial. With the Kentucky Derby annually featuring the largest field in North American racing, you’ll want to see what Santa Anita-based racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, considering the success she’s had handicapping this race.

In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.

She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young’s win in the $20 million Saudi Cup, Journalism’s win in the San Felipe Stakes and Sandman’s win in the Arkansas Derby this year. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.

Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is completely fading Sandman, even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top favorites. Sandman’s Arkansas Derby victory at Oaklawn Park came in his first Grade 1 stakes race, so he has limited experience against elite fields like he’ll see on Saturday at the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

Sandman, trained by Mark E. Casse, made his racing debut at Churchill Downs, finishing fifth in June 2024. He has made three starts at Churchill Downs in his career, finishing third, fifth and fifth in those three races. Casse has also never trained a horse that went on to win the Kentucky Derby, so you can see why You isn’t high on Sandman given his low odds. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on Grande, even though he is a 20-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt is flying under the radar because he didn’t have any Kentucky Derby prep race wins. In fact, he’s raced just three times total, winning his first two starts before taking second at the Wood Memorial in April in his first graded-stakes race.

Yu, however, was impressed with that run after Grande overcame a wide start and got within striking distance of the winner, Rodriguez, who is one of the 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites. Yu isn’t sure if Grande is ready to take down the whole Kentucky Derby field due to his lack of experience, but loves him as a horse to include in 2025 Kentucky Derby exotics. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu is high on a double-digit longshot who has been getting over the Churchill Downs surface “perfectly” this week. She is including this horse in her 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2025 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out.