USATSI
March Madness is here. The regular season feels a bit like a long, grueling semester. This is the test for hoop-loving fiends. All those hours you watched during the regular season are supposed to help when the do-or-die matchups are finalized. But we aren’t so far away from our college years to remember what it feels like needing to cram and we’ve got you covered with plenty of Region previews — West, South, East and Midwest — plus the favorites like Cinderellas, tournament sleepers such as Gonzaga (!?!) and even the First Four teams who could make a big run (cough, North Carolina, cough).
Let’s get into the nitty-gritty scouting reports and predictions for every first-round game of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
First Four
No. 16 seed Alabama State vs. No. 16 Saint Francis: The turnover battle should tilt the scales here. Saint Francis has one of the highest turnover rates in the field. Ball-control is king for Alabama State.
The pick: Alabama State
No. 11 San Diego State vs. No. 11 North Carolina: The health of Aztecs big man Magoon Gwath looms large. SDSU’s defense is 10 points per 100 possessions worse without him. He’s expected to play against UNC which is a big deal, but the Tar Heels are rounding into form. They’ve lost to two teams since February: Duke (a 1 seed) and Clemson (a 5 seed). I just do not trust San Diego State’s offense to create high-quality looks consistently. This halfcourt offense ranks outside the top-200 nationally.
The pick: North Carolina
No. 16 American vs. No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s: Razor-slim margins here, but I do like American’s shot-diet a tad more. Nearly an 80% rim and 3 rate against top-250 teams this year. Mount St. Mary’s takes a ton of midrange jumpers and doesn’t make ’em.
The pick: American
No. 11 Texas vs. No. 11 Xavier: I just want to trust the better half-court offenses these days. That’s Xavier. Plus, Dailyn Swain and Marcus Foster are those rangy wings that you need to match up against Tramon Mark and Tre Johnson. Maybe Texas just makes a barrage of tough jumpers, but Xavier has been playing like a top-20 team for a while.
The pick: Xavier
South Region
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 16. Alabama State/St. Francis winner
No high-major team allows fewer 3-pointers per game than Auburn. The Tigers just blanket the perimeter and coax teams to try and finish at the rim over a souped-up frontline of Dylan Cardwell, Johni Broome and Chaney Johnson. Auburn’s two-way rim dominance makes it upset-proof against undermatched frontcourts.
The pick: Auburn
No. 8 Louisville vs. No. 9 Creighton
Creighton’s deep drop coverage with Ryan Kalkbrenner coaxes one of the highest rates of midrange jumpers. That’s a shot analytically-minded Louisville tries not to take. Chucky Hepburn has had a brilliant season, but he is shooting just 30% on off-the-dribble jumpers this year. He is going to be forced to take some tough, contested jumpers. Can he make ’em? Hepburn’s defense on Steven Ashworth will be another massive X-Factor in this game. Louisville just can’t win without a good Hepburn game. Louisville’s rim defense will also be tested in this one. Top-100 teams have shot over 63% at the rim against Louisville when James Scott isn’t on the floor. If Kalkbrenner gets the big fella in foul trouble, Louisville is in hot water.
The pick: Louisville
Louisville’s Chucky Hepburn Michael Hickey / Getty Images
No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 12 UC San Diego: UC San Diego is one of the most popular first-round upsets, but Michigan is going to be a real challenge because it could dominate the shot-volume game with loads of offensive rebounds. UC San Diego has little rim protection which is a problem against Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, so the Tritons will need a herculean shot-making from Tyler McGhie, Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, Hayden Gray and Nordin Kapic to win the math. UC San Diego’s matchup zone defense will try to coax Michigan into taking 3s. That’s probably the best recipe to topple Michigan’s Twin Towers, but I just don’t know how Michigan doesn’t finish this game with double-digit offensive rebounds. That should offset the turnovers that are undoubtedly on tap. UC Irvine’s 7-1 center Bent Leuchten scored 23 points in two of three matchups against UC San Diego. That feels inevitable for Goldin and/or Wolf.
The pick: Michigan
No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 13 Yale: Yale matches up with Texas A&M very well. The Aggies have lost shooters like Chaz Lanier, Will Richard, Tyler Nickel and Tahaad Pettiford all year long, and John Poulakidas is a 6-foot-6, net-shredder who is draining 40% of his triples. He has real next-level interest from NBA evaluators. Yale point guard Bez Mbeng is one of the elite on-ball defenders and should be able to hang with Wade Taylor IV. Yale is also big, starting four guys taller than 6-foot-6, which should help out on the boards against Texas A&M. Yale packs the paint, limits shots at the rim as well as anybody and tries to force jumpers. The Aggies have been a poor shooting team all year. If Yale doesn’t get abused in the extras, it will stay in this one for 40 minutes. Pharrel Payne is the big X-Factor here. The Texas A&M big fella is a handful for mid-major frontcourts.
The pick: Yale
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 North Carolina: Ole Miss has pivoted to going all-in on small ball with four or five shooters on the floor at one time. This roster doesn’t have a trustworthy true 5, so Chris Beard had to change some things. Ole Miss overhelps or traps often in the paint to try and limit shots at the rim. But that has had a ripple effect everywhere else. Ole Miss gives up way too many open 3s, fouls too much and struggles on the glass. Ole Miss has way too many warts right now. I think it loses to whoever wins that play-in game. I went with UNC in the First Four. I am going with UNC in the Round of 64, too.
The pick: North Carolina
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Lipscomb: Iowa State lead guard Keshon Gilbert is out for the NCAA Tournament which is a big blow for a Cyclones’ transition attack that has been one of the most improved units in the country. But Lipscomb has done a nice job of limiting transition possessions all year. This one comes down to the paint. Lipscomb’s rim defense went from a strength with big man Dylan Faulkner to a major weakness after he went down with a broken foot. That’s a problem against Iowa State who will hunt mismatches with Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson. TJ Otzelberger has not lost to a mid-major team in his four years at Iowa State. The hounding pressure can be overwhelming, and Jefferson is built to give Lipscomb star Jacob Ognacevic problems. But Iowa State’s defense does cede some open 3s and this Lipscomb group can shoot the cover off it. They need to make double-digit 3s to make up for the avalanche of shots at the rim Iowa State should generate.
The pick: Iowa State
No. 7 Marquette vs. No. 19 New Mexico: Marquette played St. John’s big man Zuby Ejiofor three times and had zero answers for him every single time. The hard-nosed, physical big man had two double-doubles in the regular season and a 33-point, nine-rebound showing against this Marquette frontline in the Big East Tournament. And now Marquette gets to handle Nelly Junior Joseph who started his career playing for … Rick Pitino. He looks and plays like the Pitino bigs who have tortured Marquette all year. Junior Joseph has a great matchup. Kam Jones-versus-Donovan Dent is popcorn material, but Tru Washington should get the defensive assignment for the Lobos. Washington is a tremendous perimeter defender who will relish the opportunity. You need excellent ball-handlers to prepare for this Marquette pressure, and Dent is the best in the business. He’s a God in pick-and-rolls and his feel is off the charts. There’s a world where Marquette wins the math with its barrage of 3s. It takes way more of them than New Mexico, but the Lobos have the paint-dominance and the point guard to give Marquette problems.
The pick: New Mexico
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Bryant: Bryant is a big, physical team that will have size advantages galore on the perimeter. Rafael Pinzon, a former St. John’s transfer, can absolutely fill it up. But Bryant is extremely reliant on transition offense, and Michigan State is one of the best transition defenses in the country. You do not get runouts against the Spartans. Bryant is no slouch, but I do not know how it can consistently generate good looks against this well-schooled MSU defense. Michigan State can cycle in numerous vicious perimeter defenders like Jaden Akins or Tre Holloman. It has shut down lead guards all year. It should do enough to contain Pinzon.
The pick: Michigan State
East Region
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Norfolk State: Florida is a bad matchup for everybody these days, but especially Norfolk State. The Spartans give up so many unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s. That is not a winning recipe against a Gators’ club that can fill it up and gobble up second-chance opportunities when they miss. Norfolk State coach Robert Jones is a gem, and point guard Brian Moore is a heck of a player, but Florida should dominate. Norfolk State just cannot guard ’em.
The pick: Florida
No. 8 UConn vs. No. 9 Oklahoma: UConn has struggled mightily against lead guards this season. It allows way too many straight-line drives to the front of the rim. That’s a bad combination against Jeremiah Fears who is a paint-touch merchant. Over 45% of Fears’ shots come at the rim. OU needs its slithery freshman to play at an extremely high level. The Sooners also have to rebound. Interior defense, rim protection and rebounding are all correlated and have been hot spots for Porter Moser’s club this season. UConn’s big man duo of Tarris Reed and Samson Johnson can be major difference-makers in this one, and Dan Hurley needs freshman wing Liam McNeeley to snap out of his March funk in a jiffy.
The pick: UConn
No. 5 Memphis vs. No. 12 Colorado State: Burly forwards like Nick Davidson and Tyson Degenhart and monster centers like Nelly Junior Joseph have gashed Colorado State’s slightly undersized front line. Memphis big man Dain Dainja could be in line for a massive payday if Tyrese Hunter is still out with a leg injury. Dainja is the focal point of Memphis’ halfcourt offense while PJ Haggerty dominates all the transition touches. Colorado State doesn’t have a good answer for Dainja, but it should be able to put NBA-bound Nique Clifford onto Haggerty with some success. Also, Colorado State’s scheme does a fantastic job of limiting transition opportunities for opponents. But Dainja is a silky-smooth stud with highly effective drives.
The pick: Memphis
Memphis’ PJ Haggerty Justin Ford / Getty Images
No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 13 Grand Canyon: To beat Maryland, you better have size and rim protection. Grand Canyon has both. The ‘Lopes will rotate Duke Brennan, JaKobe Coles and Lok Wur to battle the brilliant Derik Queen and the underrated JuJu Reese. Top-200 teams are shooting just 50% at the rim against Grand Canyon. That rim protection has to play in this matchup. The whistle will also be paramount. Tyon Grant-Foster wants to draw fouls at will. If that’s happening, Maryland’s depth will be challenged. The top guy on the scouting report has given Maryland fits routinely for the last month or so, but Grant-Foster has been a total enigma. The athleticism and physicality in this game will be off the charts. Grand Canyon has the defensive bite to stay in it, but Maryland’s guards make shots often and you can’t say the same about Grand Canyon. I’ve flip-flopped on this one for 24 hours. Leaning toward the Terps by the skin of their talons.
The pick: Maryland
No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 11 Drake: Drake has one of the highest pick-and-roll usages in the country and it rates in the 91st percentile in ball-screen efficiency, per Synergy. Ben McCollum isn’t afraid to dial it up for star point guard Bennett Stirtz over and over and over again. Missouri’s defense has been a sieve for a hot second. The Tigers have tried numerous pick-and-roll coverages to no avail. Missouri’s hyper-aggressive tendencies have been getting torched lately, leading to a defense that sits outside the top-100 nationally in the last 13 games because of its issues with fouling too much and allowing too many offensive rebounds. Drake is so good at shortening the game and refusing to give up the transition bursts that Missouri thrives on. Drake is going to try to grind this game down and lean on Stirtz to create good looks for himself or others with the shot clock dwindling. When healthy, Missouri is a tough guard because they have sources of offense everywhere. Getting to the rim has to be the priority in this matchup. Top-200 opponents are shooting 65% at the rim against Drake this season on high volume, and the Bulldogs have struggled with the Mark Mitchell-like archetype.
The pick: I’m stumped to be fully honest. Your guess is as good as mine. (Drake)
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 UNC Wilmington: UNC Wilmington is one of the oldest teams in college basketball, and senior point guard Donovan Newby is a dangerous two-level scorer who can heat up from midrange and downtown. Texas Tech needs Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian to get healthy, but this group can score at every single level. UNC Wilmington’s defense leaves a ton to be desired. Top-200 teams shot over 64% at the rim against UNC Wilmington, and the Seahawks lean on drop coverage early and often. Texas Tech has eviscerated drop all year with Elijah Hawkins at the keys.
The pick: Texas Tech
No. 7 Kansas vs. No. 10 Arkansas: Hunter Dickinson is at the epicenter of this matchup. John Calipari has regularly trusted his fleet of big men to handle post-ups one-on-one. If he sticks with the same script, Dickinson has to devour Jonas Aidoo, Zvonimir Ivisic or anyone else in his path. I think this is a game Arkansas really misses Adou Thiero. Explosive forwards like Keyshawn Hall and JT Toppin have cooked Kansas in the last in the last two weeks. Arkansas’ offense is getting a jolt with Boogie Fland working his way back into the max, but if the Hogs cannot score double-digit points in transition, it will not win this game.
The pick: Kansas
No. 2 St. John’s vs. No. 15 Omaha: Omaha’s top-200 opponents had a whopping 37.5 foul rate this season. That’s a horrible sign against a St. John’s squad that has three dudes (RJ Luis, Kadary Richmond and Zuby Ejiofor) who can get to the free-throw line at will. Omaha will need its guards like JJ White and Tony Osburn to make contested treys because star forward Marquel Sutton has a brutal matchup on tap. Sutton has some similarities to Butler star forward Jahmyl Telfort who St. John’s bottled up not once, not twice but three different times this season. If he goes off against this defense, build the statue and tip one back for the garbage can that Omaha is going to incinerate.
The pick: St. John’s
East Region
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 American/Mount St. Mary’s: No team in the tournament creates more unguarded catch-and-shoot 3-pointers than Duke. This is 2023-24 UConn all over again. That doesn’t mean Duke will win the title like UConn because this bracket might be even tougher than last year’s, but do you really need to hear anything else?
The pick: Duke
No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Baylor: Both of these teams have done a poor job of guarding the 3-point stripe all year. I thought Mississippi State’s defensive issues were more fixable than Baylor’s, but the problems persisted nonetheless. Both teams will generate plenty of open 3s. Both teams will chase offensive rebounds. This is as close to a make-or-miss game as any on the board, but the fallout of those scrambles for long rebounds will have a huge say on the winner. Lean Baylor just because they have a few more reliable shooters. Although, Norchad Omier-versus-KeShawn Murphy is a tantalizing frontcourt matchup.
The pick: Baylor
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Liberty: Liberty is one of four teams since 2018 on pace to have a +10% gap at the 3-point stripe. The Flames are shooting 39.5% from downtown. Its opponents are at just 28%. That’s the biggest gap in the country this year. The regression monster is always looming. But Liberty’s undersized frontcourt has struggled mightily with bigs all season. FAU‘s Matas Vokietaitis had 17 points and six rebounds in 22 minutes. Louisiana Tech‘s Daniel Batcho had a 24-point, 12-rebound showing. Oregon big man Nate Bittle is a flat-out monster. He can single-handedly keep Liberty at bay.
The pick: Oregon
No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 13 Akron: Ramping up the number of possessions against a Tommy Lloyd-coached team is usually a recipe for disaster, but John Groce and the boys are going to try it. Akron will have at least four shooters on the floor at all times, and they’ll have to win the 3-point math in a big way. Akron takes and makes a ton of treys which could open the door for an upset against an Arizona squad that has only hit double-digit 3-pointers six times this season. Arizona’s raw size will give undersized Akron some problems, but the Zips are tough and scrappy on the boards. Akron has to shoot the lights out to stay in this. That’s easier said than done against this Arizona perimeter defense that is ready to rock ‘n roll.
The pick: Arizona
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 VCU: VCU’s insane pressure defense gives me a ton of Houston vibes. BYU got depantsed by Houston twice this season, including in last week’s Big 12 Tournament semifinals. VCU has all the pieces that I want for this matchup. They can really protect the rim. Opponents are shooting just 48% at the rim this season. They limit the drive-and-kick 3s that BYU feasts on. They have big, veteran guards like Max Shulga, Joe Bamisile and Zeb Jackson with a rangy wing like Jack Clark to eat up space and shrink the floor. Phillip Russell may be the biggest X-Factor. He has to make the tough 2s that BYU forces you to take. Russell is shooting over 60% on pull-up, two-point jumpers this season. That’s, uh, very good.
The pick: VCU
No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Montana: A healthy Max Klesmit just makes everything look a little smoother for Wisconsin. Montana’s defense was shredded by each of the three tournament teams it faced in non-conference play: Oregon, Tennessee and Utah State. Montana’s defense allowed 120.3 points per 100 possessions to top-200 teams this season. Woof.
Junior guard Malik Moore is an outstanding shot-maker and Money Williams has major juice as a scorer, but Wisconsin’s strong guards should get wherever they want.
The pick: Wisconsin
Wisconsin guard John Tonje at the Big Ten tournament Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire
While you’re here, Money Williams tragically lost his mom and dad in less than a year. A GoFundMe was set up to support Williams and his four siblings.
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt: Saint Mary’s will have 10 days to stew on one of its worst offensive showings of the season. The Gaels uncharacteristically missed all 16 3-pointers in the WCC Championship game against Gonzaga while also turning it over 18 times. And somehow only lost by seven. A big bounce-back is in order against a Vanderbilt defense that has been blitzed for two straight months. Vanderbilt’s defense ranks outside the top-100 nationally in the last two months combined, and it’s going to lose the shot-volume game in this one by a wide margin. Saint Mary’s is just way too good on the glass and should value the basketball way better after the Randy Bennett tongue-lashing.
The pick: Saint Mary’s
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 15 Robert Morris: The season-opener was ages ago, but West Virginia held Robert Morris to just 0.83 points per possession using the exact same defensive formula that Alabama likes to use. Alabama wants to limit as many of the catch-and-shoot 3s as possible. That bottled up Robert Morris pretty well. Forward Alvaro Folgueiras is going to have to be special in his one-on-one matchups against an Alabama frontline that could be without Grant Nelson. But no Nelson probably means more Mo Dioubate which has been a good thing for Alabama this year. The Crimson Tide have a +16.8 net rating with Dioubate on the floor.
The pick: Alabama
Midwest Region
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 SIUE: A team rated outside the top-200 on KenPom has not scored more than 50 points against Houston since Jan. 5, 2022.
The pick: Houston
No. 8 Gonzaga vs. No. 9 Georgia: It’s hard to mask an iffy halfcourt offense in March. Gonzaga has the second-best halfcourt offense in this field, behind only Duke. Conversely, Georgia is 147th nationally in halfcourt offensive efficiency. Georgia has to make that gap up in the margins, and there’s a real path here. Georgia has to dominate the offensive glass like Saint Mary’s did in its two regular-season wins against the Zags. Because if you turn it over, Gonzaga will score in transition without blinking. And if you take bad shots and can’t corral those long rebounds, that’s another bucket for the Zags who make you pay for everything.
The pick: Gonzaga
No. 5 Clemson vs. No. 12 McNeese: Some weird stuff is going on with Clemson lately. Chauncey Wiggins hasn’t made multiple 3s in a game since January. Jaeden Zackery has only made multiple 3s twice since late January. Viktor Lakhin and Ian Schieffelin can shoot but that’s not their biggest appeal. Top-200 opponents are shooting just 50% at the rim against McNeese. McNeese coach Will Wade will use creative pick-and-roll coverages to load up the paint and force Clemson to beat ’em with jumpers. Can Clemson make enough? Defensively, Clemson should give McNeese plenty of problems with its mix of vets and terrific positional size, but this looks and smells like a 58-55 game with less than three minutes to go.
The pick: Clemson
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 High Point: I do not think High Point matches up well with Purdue at all. It isn’t a super-aggressive defense that has given Purdue problems this year. Braden Smith has blowtorched drop coverage, and 7-foot High Point center Juslin Bodo Bodo is going to have to play his best game of the season against Trey Kaufman-Renn. High Point’s offense can definitely go, but the Huss Bus does not have that mismatch-hunting wing that has also given Purdue fits often.
The pick: Purdue
Purdue guard Braden Smith Michael Hickey / Getty Images
No. 6 Illinois vs. No. 11 Xavier: Illinois wants to just live at the rim. Xavier does not have much rim protection already, and if Zach Freemantle is dragged away from the rim, it has almost none. As long as Illinois doesn’t shoot 18% from 3-point range, the Illini would be in position to win both the shot-chart game and the shot-volume game. That matters in March.
The pick: Illinois
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Troy: Troy can unquestionably guard Kentucky. Myles Rigsby, a 6-6 sophomore wing, is an outstanding defender who should take the Otega Oweh assignment and be up to the challenge. Troy’s guards are rangy and athletic. Troy also has pick-and-pop bigs galore who you have to respect. The Trojans can hurt Kentucky on the offensive glass and by forcing turnovers, but this group has struggled to make jumpers all year long, and Mark Pope is smart. He will not let Troy get anything at the rim in half-court scenarios. Kentucky doesn’t need Lamont Butler to be awesome, but it does need him on the floor. Kentucky’s turnover rate spikes when its point guard sits (to no surprise).
The pick: Kentucky, but it’s close
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 Utah State: Utah State’s funky zone defense has gotten shredded in the last 12 games. Utah State’s defense ranks outside the top-200 nationally since February 1, per Bart Torvik. UCLA’s offense can be a tad spotty at times, but it has smooth forwards like Tyler Bilodeau and Eric Dailey Jr. that can give zone defenses major problems. New Mexico is one of the elite ball-pressure defenses in the Mountain West. The Lobos beat Utah State twice. That’s the type of perimeter pressure that UCLA is going to bring to the table. Utah State is going to hit close to 12 treys to stay attached.
The pick: UCLA
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Wofford: Tennessee is one of the elite 3-point defenses in the country for a reason. It forces you to take a ton of contested 3s off the bounce. Wofford rarely takes off-the-dribble 3s. Those catch-and-shoot 3s that the Terriers lean on will not be available against this lockdown, Vols defense.
The pick: Tennessee
