USATSI
The 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket undoubtedly has a chance to go down as one of the stronger fields in recent history. After 2024 featured bid-stealers galore, this iteration of conference tournament week was rather chalky. The mid-major teams who made it are phenomenal. This is the crème de la crème.
Oh, and there are storylines galore to add to the joy. Rick Pitino, John Calipari and Bill Self all jammed into one quartet? Yes, please. A potential Cooper Flagg-versus-VJ Edgecombe matchup in the Round of 32? Yes, please. Florida, who is playing the best basketball in the country right now, being forced to potentially play the two-time defending champions in the Round of 32? Yes, please.
Check ball. An all-time tournament is right around the corner. Let’s dive into some winners and losers from Sunday’s field of 68 reveal. Let’s start with the No. 1 overall seed.
Auburn Tigers: Winner
Why: Tigers match up beautifully vs. first few opponents
Analytically, Auburn was handed the toughest draws of any of the No. 1 seeds, but styles make fights and the Tigers’ version of math-ball is set up to make a real run in the South Region. Assuming Auburn can take care of business against Alabama State or Saint Francis, Bruce Pearl’s club will get a shot at Louisville or Creighton.
Both of those clubs rank in the top-20 in 3-point rate. They need 3s to win. Auburn is one of the elite 3-point defenses in the sport. Pearl has this team blanketing the 3-point stripe left and right: No high-major team allowed less treys than the Tigers. Plus, there are offensive questions galore for numerous top teams in this region.
Since Feb. 1, there is just one other top-20 offense in this region: No. 6 seed Ole Miss. Fourth-seeded Texas A&M is 45th. Fifth-seeded Michigan is 102nd. Second-seeded Michigan State is 57th. No. 3 seed Iowa State is 40th, and starting guard Keshon Gilbert is sidelined for the not-so-distant future. That’s the batch of top contenders that has to outlast an Auburn team that built one of the highest-rated offenses of the modern era.
Good luck and best wishes.
Maryland Terrapins: Loser
Why: That Round 1 draw is no joke, then it gets tougher
Maryland has been one of my favorite darkhorse, Final Four picks for awhile, but this draw for the 4-seed Terps is brutal.
First up is a date with 13-seed Grand Canyon who is just teeming with high-major players. Maryland is the more talented team but it’s not a major advantage. Plus, top-200 teams are shooting just 50% at the rim against Grand Canyon, who has a wealth of athletes and size. Woof. The top guy on the scouting report has given Maryland fits for the last month or so, and Grand Canyon star Tyon Grant-Foster is a big-time player capable of going for a 30-piece whenever he wants. He’s one of the best foul-drawing wings in the country and that’s a problem against a thin Maryland squad.
If the Crab Five advance past that matchup, it could get a date with 5-seed Memphis, who also has one of the elite isolation scorers in America in PJ Haggerty and a two-big lineup of Dain Dainja and Moussa Cisse (or Nicholas Jourdain) who can physically handle the challenge that Derik Queen and JuJu Reese present. Like Grand Canyon, Memphis has been a very good rim protecting team all season.
Maryland has its work cut out for itself.
Alabama Crimson Tide: Winner
Why: Tide’s opponents don’t have the secret weapon
The common denominator has not been hard to find in Alabama’s losses: Big, burly forwards have tortured Alabama over and over again this season, but there aren’t many terrifying matchups at that specific spot in Alabama’s path. Alvaro Folgueiras will do his best for 15-seed Robert Morris, but Alabama should pass that test.
If Saint Mary’s ekes past Vanderbilt, the Gaels will try to tap that button with Paulius Murauskas, but he’s struggled with most of the high-major competition he faced this season. Wisconsin, VCU or even BYU in the second weekend don’t have those terrifying go-to bigs that Alabama just can’t handle.
Even with Grant Nelson banged up, I like Alabama’s draw to make the Elite Eight. A Duke-Alabama bout with the Final Four on the line would be terrific.
Michigan Wolverines: Loser
Why: Wolverines will have to make it rain to keep dancing
Fresh off a Big Ten Championship, Michigan’s path is anything but easy. The No. 5 seed Wolverines will be short favorites in the first round against UC San Diego who, on paper, gives Michigan a lot of problems. The Tritons are one of the best turnover-forcing defenses in the country. Michigan has struggled with giveaways all year.
The Tritons are also one of the best rim-protecting teams in college basketball, even without a starter taller than 6-foot-8. That will undoubtedly be tested by Michigan’s 1-2 punch of Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin. Expect plenty of zone from UC San Diego who will dare Michigan to try and beat ’em with treys. That’s not been a major strength of this Michigan team for long stretches this year.
If Michigan can escape that dogfight, it could get a bout with Texas A&M, who is another defense built to take away the shot that Michigan desperately relies upon: buckets at the rim. Oh, and the Aggies are excellent on the offensive glass which has been a real area of concern for Michigan, too. If Dusty May can concoct a second-weekend appearance, it will be earned.
Purdue Boilermakers: It’s complicated
Why: Round 1 upset unlikely, but then … gulp
Purdue’s biggest hot-spots have flared up against teams with big jumbo wings. No. 13 seed High Point doesn’t have that. Turnover-forcing defenses have also given Purdue fits often. That’s not High Point, either. The Braden Smith-Trey Kaufman-Renn pick-and-roll is one of the most unstoppable actions in college basketball. High Point’s pick-and-roll defense has been OK. Nothing special.
High Point over Purdue may be a popular upset pick in the first round, but I just do not see it schematically. Purdue matches up extremely well with Alan Huss’ crew across the board. The second round would be way more complicated against Clemson or McNeese, who are some of the best pick-and-roll defenses in the country.
