Dangerous storms, tornadoes possible today

Today could be a very dangerous severe weather day, especially for central and southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Conditions are right for thunderstorms that could produce strong, violent tornadoes, 70 to 80 mph wind gusts and hail the size of golf balls or larger. We have been talking about this for a few days. By now, you should know where to go and what to do when and if severe weather strikes. It is also critically important to pay close attention to the weather today. Storms will develop and intensify quickly.

Timing:

These timing references are general and not set in stone. Things can develop unexpectedly, so be paying attention throughout the day.

Afternoon into Evening (2–9pm): Main severe threat develops.

Afternoon setup:

Scattered storms from this morning have moved out of the area. Our main focus now is how much clearing we get. More sunshine means more heat and energy for storms that develop this afternoon. If more clouds stick around, severe potential will be more limited. As of now, it looks like clouds are clearing as expected.
Storms are expected to develop between 2–4pm, mainly east of the I-29 corridor, likely along a line from Sioux City to Redwood Falls to St. Cloud.
Initial storms could be discrete supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail.
As we head toward evening, storms will cluster into a line, with the main threat shifting to widespread damaging wind gusts (70–80 mph) and embedded tornadoes.

In Mankato and across south central Minnesota and north central Iowa, expect storm development between 3–5pm. Tornadoes will be more likely early, then the threat will transition to damaging wind gusts.

If you are west of the Mankato area, the threat will evolve earlier. If you are east, the threat will be a bit later.

Main threats:

Strong tornadoes (EF2+ possible especially during early storm stages)

Very large hail (golf ball or larger)

Damaging wind gusts (70–80+ mph with the evening line)

Bottom Line:

Don’t be scared, just be ready and pay attention today. All of the ingredients are there for a high impact severe weather event this afternoon and tonight. Stay weather aware and have multiple ways to receive warnings before storms develop! I’ll have plenty of updates throughout the day. You’ll be really sick of me by this evening.