Now that Rory McIlroy has answered the lingering question about whether he’d ever win the career grand slam, the next one we’ll collectively ask is: What will he do for an encore?
One school of thought is that the floodgates could once again open. The man who claimed four major titles from 2011 through 2014 essentially removed three monkeys from his back during Sunday’s triumph — one for the career slam, one for the green jacket and one for an 11-year major championship drought. With the weight lifted, perhaps the historic Masters win will inspire a historic season.
Another theory is that McIlroy might’ve emptied the tank for his latest victory. If you thought being emotionally invested in his journey as an observer was exhausting, just think what it did to the man in the arena. He could hardly be blamed if he used the remainder of the year as a victory lap.
Whichever idea you believe, there’s now a betting market to put your money where your mind is.
Let’s examine the options — and the odds — currently listed at BetMGM for McIlroy’s final major total this year.
Rory remains at one major win (-200)
For those cynics out there, the people who believe McIlroy won’t parlay the Masters win into another major title, you’ll have to pay 50 cents on the dollar to cash this ticket.
That means fading him at next month’s PGA Championship — McIlroy already has two titles — held at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, where he’s won the annual PGA Tour event four times. Over the past year and a half, Scottie Scheffler has served as the lone favorite in every event he’s played, but current odds show Scheffler and McIlroy as co-favorites at +500.
It means bypassing him at Oakmont, this year’s U.S. Open site. He missed the cut when it was held here in 2016, but one of the world’s most exacting venues should appeal to the game’s best players. McIlroy is +600 to win his first U.S. Open title in 14 years.
And it means avoiding him in The Open Championship at Royal Portrush. If there remains a hole in Rory’s resume, it’s that he’s never won on home soil, which isn’t as much of a deficiency as it sounds. In the lone previous major of this generation in Northern Ireland, his first tee shot careened out of bounds and contradictory scores of 79-65 left him on the wrong side of the cut line. At +500, he’s the favorite to delight the local galleries, a half-point shorter in the outright market than Scheffler.
There are reasons, of course, to short the McIlroy options.
The first is that only one player in the last half-dozen years — Xander Schauffele last year — has claimed more than a single major in an individual season. The second, which might be cause and effect of the first, is that a McIlroy fade is essentially a three-tournament field bet on everyone else, including Scheffler, Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm and so many other legitimate major championship contenders.
Rory wins two majors this year (+188)
If you’re betting this one, here’s the good news: You don’t have to choose which of the final three he will win. If you can’t select among the PGA, U.S. Open and Open Championship but think he will add one more, you’ll get nearly 2-to-1 odds on the possibility.
It happens more frequently than you might think.
Since the turn of the century, there have been eight instances of a player winning exactly two majors in the same year: Tiger Woods (2002, 2005 and 2006), Padraig Harrington (2008), McIlroy (2014), Jordan Spieth (2015), Brooks Koepka (2018) and Schauffele (2024).
Eight in 25 years is a rate of 32 percent, which is pretty aligned with the 34.72 percent implied probability of these odds, suggesting it’s a fair wager if you’re so inclined.
Oh yeah, but there’s the bad news, too: If McIlroy peels off another victory, say, at next month’s PGA, you’ll be sweating the final two in hopes that he doesn’t claim a third.
Rory claims exactly three major titles (+1400)
Alright, this is where we start getting into truly historic proportions — and where the odds don’t align with the record books.
McIlroy’s road to one of golf’s most exclusive clubs culminated this weekend, as he joined five others who have won the career slam, but this club is even more exclusive, as not even Jack Nicklaus (18 majors), Walter Hagen (11) or Gary Player (9) have won three titles in a year.
Since the modern era of all four majors being contested began in 1934, just two players have totaled three majors in a single year: Ben Hogan in 1953 and Tiger Woods in 2000.
Maybe a healthy dose of recency bias has you believing that Rory can join the club, but consider it in these terms: McIlroy’s odds of winning two of the final three majors this year are the same as either DeChambeau or Ludvig Aberg winning next month’s PGA Championship.
No, thank you.
Rory becomes the first player to capture the single-season grand slam (+8000)
If you’re seriously considering this bet, I completely understand.
Look, you’re a dreamer. You believe that anything can happen, that maybe there’s a little magic in the previously foul-smelling professional golf air. You witnessed history on Sunday evening and thought: That was fun, let’s do it again three more times.
I shouldn’t have to remind you, but no player has ever won golf’s modern grand slam.
Oh, sure, there was Bobby Jones in 1930, whose U.S. Open and Open Championship victories were bracketed by wins in the amateur championships of each country. And there was Woods, in 2000 and bleeding into 2001, who held all four majors titles at the same time, which conjured the so-called Tiger Slam, but still wouldn’t have cashed these tickets.
No, if you’re betting on this one, you’re betting on something that has literally never happened in nearly a full century of major championship golf. If I’m betting on something to happen for the first time — ever — I’m going to need much better odds than 80-to-1.
(Photo of Rory McIlroy: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
