Here we go again! America’s greatest handicapping puzzle, otherwise known as the Kentucky Derby, will take place on Saturday. As if it wasn’t enough of a challenge to pick winners in an average field, this is a race that complicates things exponentially. Looking at those complications one-by-one, it goes like this:
- It is the only major American race that features a 20-horse field.
- The horses must navigate a mile and a quarter (10 furlongs), which is further than they have ever raced.
- These are inexperienced 3-year-olds. Some have had as few as three career starts, and none of them have had more than nine.
- These horses are at the point in their development where their form can either improve or decline dramatically. Maturation is sometimes a beautiful thing, and sometimes it is not.
- There is usually (but not always) an advantage to major trainers who get the most expensive horses with the best pedigrees to train. This doesn’t mean that favorites or top choices always win. In the last three years, the winners of the Kentucky Derby have gone off at odds of 18-1, 15-1 and 80-1. But you can also get stretches like 2014-2018, when five consecutive favorites won.
These complications do not mean that you throw logic out the window. Nearly all the parameters we use to evaluate horses say that a horse named Journalism has been the best in his age group. Speed figures point him out as the fastest. He is undefeated in races of a mile or more, with his only loss coming in the first race of his career over a six-furlong distance. Since then, he has notched four consecutive wins. He is likely (but far from guaranteed) to produce a winning performance.
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There are, however, some risk factors involved in betting on Journalism. For example, this will be his first race outside of California, and we don’t know how shipping cross-country will affect him. Also, the average field size in his five races has been just six horses, which is a far cry from 20. His stalking style has worked to his advantage in more predictable races with small field sizes. Now, instead of facing one or two horses who are fighting for the lead in the early going (as he has in his earlier races), he could face five or six horses who want to run on the front end in the Kentucky Derby. When several horses are running on the front end, stalkers who have never been in a field this big can get keyed up and caught in the pace battle. No matter how fast a horse is, a front-running duel can leave them running on empty in the stretch at the Derby. None of this says that Journalism will get beat, but he will have obstacles in this task that he has never faced before.
At this point, I am expecting a fairly hot pace in the race. Among the horses who could be fighting for the lead are Rodriguez, Citizen Bull, East Avenue, American Promise, Neoequos and Owen Almighty. These are all quality horses from top trainers who have proven their ability to be competitive in tough races while running on the front end. Also, the huge field size can often produce a longshot who tries to “steal” the race on the front end. In any case, it is reasonable to expect a fast pace.
And what about the other stalkers, who will be trying to run near Journalism in the “second flight” of horses? Probably the best stalker in the potential field was Tappan Street, but he is now out of the race with an injury. Other stalkers include Grande, Chunk of Gold, and Coal Battle. Grande is a late developer from the barn of trainer Todd Pletcher. He was a solid 2nd to Rodriguez in the Wood Memorial, which was only the third race of his career. The fact that Pletcher and owner Mike Repole have chosen to move Grande forward in this spot says that they feel he is only getting better with more racing. Coal Battle has been a solid performer throughout the Derby prep season. He went on a four-race win streak prior to finishing 3rd to Sandman in the Arkansas Derby. And lurking as the first also-eligible horse for the race is Baeza, from the barn of John Shirreffs. If he gets into the field, he would enter off a solid 2nd-place finish to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, where he was beaten by only ¾ of a length in the 4th start of his career. There’s reason to believe he could improve here.
While statistics say that horses who are forwardly placed tend to do well in this race, the winners of the last three editions have come from off the pace. This year, I expect one of two possible outcomes. I can see Journalism winning the race, or I can see a horse taking advantage of a hot early pace and winning in a come-from-behind style. So, who are the most dangerous closers in this field? I’m going to classify two types of closers for the race. The “C1” category is for the most accomplished closers in the field. In this group I would put Sandman, Sovereignty and Burnham Square. These horses are from top trainers and they won the Arkansas Derby, Fountain of Youth Stakes, and the Blue Grass Stakes, respectively, from off the pace. Any one of these three could produce a lifetime-best performance and win the Kentucky Derby.
Then, there is a second level of closers, who I will call “C2” horses. This group includes Tiztastic, Publisher, Final Gambit, and Flying Mohawk. I’m paying particular attention to Tiztastic and Publisher. Both are trained by Steve Asmussen, who has started 26 horses in the Kentucky Derby and never won the race. Don’t be fooled, however; no trainer in North American history has won more races than Asmussen, and he has finished 2nd three times in this race. Tiztastic won the Louisiana Derby in his last start, and he should love the extra distance of this race. Publisher, even though he has never won a race, is a live longshot in many people’s opinions, and I understand why. He was second to Sandman in the Arkansas Derby in one of the best Derby prep race fields of the year. I feel that a fast track and a hot pace will work to his advantage here. The other horses I have put into this category are closers who (on their best day) can finish in the money, but are probably not fast enough to get the job done.
Like most, I haven’t made final decisions on how I will bet the 2025 Kentucky Derby. I know that Journalism will be on my tickets. If I believe in my theory that there will be a hot pace, I am inclined to include Sandman, Sovereignty and Burnham Square. Beyond that, making choices will be difficult. One thing I will not do, however, is include horses who have proven themselves to be not fast enough to compete in a race like this. The group of horses that will not end up on my tickets (so far) includes Owen Almighty, Chunk of Gold, and Final Gambit. NBC’s Randy Moss, who has been high on Japanese horses in recent years, is not a fan of this year’s Japanese entries – Luxor Café and Admire Daytona – so I will trust his judgment and eliminate them as well. The problem is that I have only named five “toss” horses, and I need to raise that number to at least ten. A mistake in that process can lead to missing out on a big ticket.
Hopefully, this exploration of the potential field has given you a framework to evaluate the race. In the end, it is a race that requires talent, a clean trip, and a favorable pace scenario. Make good decisions, and you might end up with a great outcome on Saturday.
