Kentucky Derby 2025 predictions, horses, time, picks, odds: Best bets by expert who called last year's winner

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Louisville native Brad Cox is technically already a Kentucky Derby winner, but he’s still chasing his Run for the Roses moment. Mandaloun wasn’t declared the winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby until nine months after the race. However, Cox will have another chance to get into the winner’s circle with Final Gambit on Saturday at Churchill Downs in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, with post time scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET. The Jeff Ruby Steaks winner is a 30-1 longshot in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, but Cox and ownership group Juddmonte are teaming up just as they did with Mandaloun in 2021.

Meanwhile, Journalism is the 3-1 favorite among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses after drawing into the favorable No. 8 post position. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.

In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby. Anyone who has followed him on betting apps like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could have been way up.

For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman (6-1), even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites. Sire Tapit has been one of the most productive studs in the country since he was retired in 2005, but his progeny have typically needed even longer distances than nine furlongs before their bloodline shined. Tapit has produced four Belmont Stakes winners in his career, but none of his offspring has won the Kentucky Derby.

Running style and post position could also be an issue for Sandman since he’s a deep closer who drew into traffic on the outside in post No. 17. At Oaklawn Park, Sandman took advantage of a blistering early pace to go from eighth to first against a nine-horse field. However, he’ll likely face more capable early speed at Churchill Downs. In addition, the 2025 Kentucky Derby lineup is full of closers who will all try to make their move late, which could leave Sandman hung out wide or force him to weave through traffic. Menez thinks a late charge to a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for Sandman, making him a horse to fade when finalizing how to bet the Kentucky Derby 2025.

Another curveball: Menez is high on Burnham Square, even though he is a 12-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Sire Liam’s Map was a Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner in 2015 and since being put out to stud in 2016, he’s produced five Grade 1 winners. Burnham Square is arguably already the most accomplished after winning the Holy Bull Stakes in February and Blue Grass Stakes to punch his ticket to the Kentucky Derby.

Owner Janis Whitman and trainer Ian Wilkes teamed up to finish eighth with McCracken in the 2017 Kentucky Derby, the only appearance either has made in the Run for the Roses. However, jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. is coming off a masterful ride to win with Mystik Dan in 2024 and this will be his sixth Kentucky Derby mount. The Blue Grass Stakes was Hernandez’s first time riding Burnham Square and the hope is that the Churchill Downs-based jockey can use his track knowledge to position this closer to mount a charge late. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks

Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.