The Athletic has live coverage of 2025 Men’s March Madness
It’s do or die — only the strong survive. The winners of this round are headed to the Sweet 16, where legends are made. And every step of the madness?
The Athletic has you covered with in-depth analysis and expert insight.
No. 8 UConn vs. No. 1 Florida
12:10 p.m. ET on CBS
It’s understood this is not the same UConn team that won back-to-back championships. It struggles to put up points but does defend and block shots when engaged.
Let’s keep it simple. The Huskies are 15-0 when holding teams under 68 points and 8-10 when they don’t. Here’s the issue: Florida has been held under 68 only one time all year.
The Gators are No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency and have a variety of options. Seven players average 6.1 points or more, and four of them shoot 35 percent or better from 3.
Florida can turn stops to points in the blink of an eye, and that’s where UConn could have an issue.
If UConn can play at its slow pace and keep the Gators out of transition, it could make things interesting.
No. 9 Baylor vs. No. 1 Duke
2:40 p.m. ET on CBS
In Baylor’s first-round win over Mississippi State, it sped it up, forcing 14 turnovers and owning the offensive glass. The Bears grabbed 16 boards and converted them into 16 points.
Unfortunately for Baylor, Duke is the tallest team in the country and one of the best rebounding teams. No need to fear, it can be done. Clemson beat the Blue Devils by owning the glass and making 58.8 percent of its shots.
The Bears will need to get as many paint touches as possible, get to the free-throw line and make shots at the rim.
I wanted to see how mobile Cooper Flagg would be after his ankle injury in the ACC tournament, and he looked just fine. The AP first-team All-American put up 14 points along with seven rebounds and four assists.
As long as Flagg is on the floor, the Blue Devils will be a tough out.
No. 6 Illinois vs. No. 3 Kentucky
5:15 p.m. ET on CBS
Both of these offenses rank among the nation’s elite in speed and efficiency, with Kentucky sitting 10th and Illinois 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and Illinois ranks 17th and Kentucky 25th in adjusted tempo.
Illinois made 12 of its 30 3s (40 percent) against Xavier and made all 18 free throws. That’s a good sign for the Fighting Illini, as they are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, 296 according to KenPom. When they make 3s, they win, and when they don’t, they lose. Illinois is 16-3 when it makes 10 3s and 12-0 when making 11 or more.
As for Kentucky, it is one of the best teams in the country on defense, specifically guarding the 3-point line (27th nationally).
Offensively, the Wildcats are top 24 in adjusted offensive efficiency, 3-point shooting (No. 1 in the SEC) and effective field goal percentage.
This game should be a thriller with a lot of offense and splash plays, but pay attention to the missed shots. Illinois is 0-8 when shooting under 40 percent from the field and 3-11 under 44 percent.
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 2 Alabama
6:10 p.m. ET on TNT
Saint Mary’s can make the best offense look ordinary; since Nov. 17, only two teams have scored 70 points against the Gaels. Saint Mary’s plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball and owns the offensive glass (No. 2 nationally).
However, Alabama’s offense is potent, ranking top 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency, 2-point percentage and effective field goal percentage. The Tide have eight players who score 5.8 points or more.
The Gaels will try to slow down the Tide, but that is easier said than done, especially if they take an early lead. Bama struggles if it can’t play at its desired pace, 1-3 when it doesn’t score 80 points. Slow and steady wins the race, but speed and 3s take the lead.
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Iowa State
7:45 p.m. ET on truTV
To be sped up or not to be.
Ole Miss rarely turns the ball over, ranking third in turnover percentage, according to KenPom. However, the Cyclones are 13th in forcing turnovers.
If Iowa State’s guard can extend pressure and force turnovers, it is in business. The Rebels have turned the ball over only 10 times or more in 10 games and lost half of them. They are 9-9 when turning it over eight times or more.
Iowa State has forced eight or more turnovers in every game but four.
Offensively, the Cyclones, are top 70 in effective field goal percentage, adjusted offensive efficiency, 2-point percentage, 3-point percentage and free-throw percentage. When they hit 48 percent or better from the floor, they are 17-1.
Ole Miss is solid offensively (33rd in adjusted offensive efficiency), 2-point percentage and has six guys who score 10 or more points per game, making its offense lethal from any position on the floor.
Can Ole Miss make enough 3s to keep Iowa State’s stingy defense at bay?
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Arizona
9:40 p.m. ET on TBS
In an old-school Pac-12 showdown, the defense-minded Ducks will look to slow down the 12th-best offense in the country.
Oregon should avoid a shootout, as it is 11-0 when allowing 65 points or fewer and 16-1 when teams score under 73.
The Ducks are led by third-team All-Big Ten point guard Jackson Shelstad, who averages 13.4 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game.
Oregon isn’t great at one thing offensively but has four starters who average over 10 points per game.
Arizona runs an aggressive, attack-minded offense led by Caleb Love — a volatile but fearless scorer who might go cold for stretches, yet somehow always rises to the moment when the game’s on the line. The Wildcats like to push the pace and light up the scoreboard, having been held under 73 points just seven times all season.
The more steady and disciplined team will win this game and head to the Sweet 16.
(Photo: Grant Halverson / Getty Images)
