NBANBAWhich star has the most at stake? Can the Lakers or Nuggets make a run? And what will be the best first-round series? Our staff dishes their takes and Finals predictions.

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By The Ringer StaffApril 17, 1:12 pm UTC • 13 min

Say goodbye to tanking and load management; the NBA playoffs have finally arrived. With the play-in tournament (thankfully) concluding Friday night, Game 1 action begins Saturday morning. To honor the return of meaningful basketball, The Ringer’s NBA staff gathered to examine some of the biggest questions heading into this postseason. We touch on stars under pressure, the Lakers and Nuggets, our favorite under-the-radar story lines, and finally, our revised Finals predictions. Let’s dive in.

Howard Beck: Giannis Antetokounmpo. There’s an age-related case here for all the seasoned vets (LeBron, Steph, Kawhi, Harden), based on shrinking windows, etc. But I’m going with Giannis. He’s been a model of old-school loyalty through 12 seasons in Milwaukee, repeatedly signing extensions and reasserting his commitment to the Bucks. Still, every NBA star has his limits, and it’s fair to wonder whether Giannis has reached his. The Bucks have won just a single playoff series since their 2021 championship. The supporting cast has eroded. Giannis has hinted at pursuing titles elsewhere. (And the Nets, among others, are plotting to poach him.) Will another early flameout prompt a trade demand?

Logan Murdock: Steph Curry. The Warriors moved mountains to get Jimmy Butler in February and give Curry one more shot at his fifth ring as he approaches the end of his career. The move has done wonders for team chemistry and the Warriors’ playoff standing. But entering the playoffs, Golden State’s prospects seem to be teetering. Draymond Green’s award chasing has been undone recently by late-game high jinks, Jonathan Kuminga seems to be in Steve Kerr’s doghouse when the team theoretically needs him the most, and the roster feels thin compared to those of the top contenders. All of which puts an enormous offensive weight on the 37-year-old’s shoulders. And still, this is the best chance he’s had at a fifth ring since 2022. 

Michael Pina: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder’s star has enjoyed one of the most productive and impressive regular seasons by a guard in recent NBA history. If, at the very least, he doesn’t reach the Finals, let alone win a championship, there’s a good chance he’ll face the inevitable (and deeply stupid) backlash experienced by just about every MVP favorite whose team disappoints in the playoffs. 

Rob Mahoney: Ja Morant. Assuming, of course, that the Grizzlies make the postseason in the first place—though that’s part of the problem. Memphis has already started making dramatic changes. If this season ends in disappointment, can we honestly expect that all three of Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane will return? And as sensational as Ja is, are we positive that Memphis wants to tether its future to a player so injury prone that it’s had to learn entirely new ways to play without him?

Wosny Lambre: Donovan Mitchell. He’s spent consecutive postseasons underperforming compared to what most NBA observers would consider to be his standard of play. This year, he’s on the most well-rounded team of his life, but it’ll be on Mitchell to meet the moment for the Cavs to advance. Will he come through? And if/when he doesn’t, will the center of gravity of the organization have to shift elsewhere to Evan Mobley or Darius Garland?

More on the Playoffs

More on the Playoffs

Tyler Parker: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Am I doing too much if I say Shai? His profile stands to gain the most from winning a title this year. Considering how well he played against the Mavs in the second round last year—he was the best player on the floor in a series that included Luka Doncic—it feels like he’s proven himself to be ready for the moment. But to get to where he wants to go, he has to be more than that. To swim in the waters he’d like to frequent, SGA has to be undeniable. If the Thunder get knocked out early again, fair or not, people will start to come out of the woodwork to begin questioning whether he is the type of player who can become the kind of ungovernable you need to be to have extended playoff success. 

Matt Dollinger: Jayson Tatum. There’s no shame in the Celtics not repeating this year, especially when you consider we’ve had six different champions in the last six years. But if Tatum is able to lead the Celtics to back-to-back titles, the respect level on his name will shoot through the rafters. He’ll instantly be viewed as an all-time great rather than just another accomplished star. And if the Celtics fall short, he’ll somehow be blamed for not being elite enough. It’s a fickle game, even when you’re on the top.

Lambre: Rockets-Warriors, easily. The stark contrast between a young, precocious team versus a bunch of wily old veterans is more than enough to whet the appetite. Add in the fact that we have two of the game’s topfive maniacs in Dillon Brooks and Draymond Green on opposite sides, and fireworks are sure to spark.

Mahoney: Rockets-Warriors. There’s really something for everyone: living legends, ascendant stars, incessant talkers, a history of violence, all-world athleticism, nasty competitors (complimentary), great defenses, and the one coach in the league who has beef with Steph Curry. Bring it on.

Parker: Clippers-Nuggets. Almost picked Wolves-Lakers because Ant vs. LeBron/Luka stands to be a pleasure. But Playoff Jokic in a duel with these rejuvenated Clippers feels like appointment viewing. This series will be a meeting of the minds between a tenacious, physical defense and the most well-rounded offensive force in the league. The Clippers are in possession of the league’s third-best defense with premium defenders in Ivica Zubac and this refurbished, healthy Kawhi Leonard who, critics agree, has gotten his groove back. This is something that must be paid attention to. Last time Kawhi looked this zippy he was winning rings. He is not to be taken lightly. He is to be taken heavily, and with great caution. How do you say, “Get your popcorn ready” in Serbian?  

Murdock: Clippers-Nuggets. I’m tempted to say Lakers-Wolves too, just for the quantity of quotables expected from Bron, Ant, and Luka, but from a sheer basketball perspective, it’s Clippers-Nuggets. I can’t wait to see Jokic put together Wilt-like statlines, and Kawhi turn into a full cyborg while I pray nightly that he can get through a full postseason healthy. Oh, and the potential for a Harden redemption arc, a Zubac postseason arrival, and the opportunity for the Clips to redeem their 2020 collapse against Denver? Sign me up. 

Beck: Pacers-Bucks. This series has all sorts of potential for fun and mayhem. Recall the wild scene last season, when Giannis set a franchise scoring record against Indiana, but the Pacers wouldn’t give him the game ball, prompting a weird game of cat-and-mouse and a brief scuffle in the arena hallways. The Pacers, led by trash-talking star guard Tyrese Haliburton, are a team on the rise. The Bucks are a proud former champion in decline. And the tensions are real, a point underscored by Haliburton earlier this week: “Plain and simple, we don’t like each other.”

Dollinger: Knicks-Pistons. Maybe it’s because I was raised watching Dale Davis, but I miss the days of scrappy Eastern Conference playoff basketball. Jeff Van Gundy is out West now and Pat Riley now sits in the stands. Isaiah Stewart is -1000000000 on FanDuel to fight someone at some point. Who is ready to scrap on the Knicks side of things? I’ve got my money on Thibs.

Pina: Clippers-Nuggets. There aren’t two players alive I’d rather see at the peak of their powers in a seven-game series than Nikola Jokic and Kawhi Leonard; both currently play for aspiring, legitimate championship contenders that, cruelly, will meet in the first round instead of the conference finals, where the stakes for a battle like this are far more appropriate. 

Murdock: Lakers. They have the deeper team, two generational talents, and the easier path to the Finals. Assuming Los Angeles makes easy work of the Wolves, the Lakers will either play a battered Warriors team, or an upstart Rockets, whom Los Angeles beat two out of three in regular-season matchups, avoiding OKC until the conference finals. That’s the same OKC team Los Angeles embarrassed la week ago. Meanwhile, the Nuggets, after firing their coach and general manager, have to face the Clippers in the first round, who somehow have 2019 Kawhi in the year of our Lord 2025. Jokic can work miracles, but winning this series may require his best hat trick yet. 

Pina: Nuggets. Los Angeles has the easier path, but the Nuggets are an experienced champion that employs the best player alive, so I’ll go with them. 

Mahoney: Lakers. For the very simple reason that they’re on the opposite side of the bracket from the Thunder. Meeting OKC even a round later means having a little more time for something to break in their favor, and frankly that’s what the Lakers—or any other team in the West—will need to topple the Thunder.

Parker: Lakers. I surprised myself typing that, but it feels like the Nuggets are asking so much of Jokic. Is it too much? We’ll find out soon enough. I know he can MacGyver potent artillery from any lineup you throw at him, but the offensive burden seems too great to make it sustainable. 

Beck: Lakers. This is a really tough call—and that in itself is amazing, considering where these teams were in October. But the Lakers were gifted a generational superstar at midseason, and the Nuggets ejected their head coach and GM just a week ago. Strange times in the West, to be sure. As amazing as Nikola Jokic is, his supporting cast is a bit wonky, and lacking a reliable second star. The Lakers, fueled by two transcendent stars in LeBron and Luka, have no such concerns. Edge: Lakers.

Dollinger: Lakers. Jokic will have to survive a gauntlet to make the conference finals, whereas the Lakers have a chance to avoid the biggest bosses for two series. This is also a bet on the Lakers being the most motivated team on their side of the bracket. LeBron will find something to piss him off and Luka has enough ammo to last him the next few centuries. 

Lambre: Lakers. But mainly for avoiding OKC on their side of the bracket. Avoiding OKC until at least the Western Conference finals makes all the difference.  

Parker: Early exit. Every single metric you can point to says the Cavs, along with the Celtics, are far and away the upper class of the East. They’ve earned the right for us to not be surprised if they make it. An early exit would be a stunner. 

Lambre: Early exit. Because the Eastern Conference is pure ass.

Beck: Early exit. This would be truly stunning. When you win 64 games, with the league’s no. 1 offense, anything less than the conference finals is a disappointment. It’s true this Cavs team has yet to prove anything in the postseason (two appearances, one series win), but this edition is sturdier, deeper and more seasoned. Darius Garland and Evan Mobley each took a leap forward this season. They look more confident, more assertive. Donovan Mitchell is a proven big-game performer. I’d still expect Boston to beat them if they meet in the conference finals, but it won’t shock me in the least if the Cavs are still standing in June.

Pina: Finals run. A Finals run means the Cavaliers have likely defeated the Celtics in the conference finals, which, with all due respect to their fantastic regular season, would shock me a little bit. 

Murdock: Finals run. I feel bad saying this, but even after all of the wins, records and accolades Cleveland has rightfully achieved over the last six months, I still have the nagging suspicion that Boston will beat them in six games or less. 

Mahoney: Early exit. Cleveland still has plenty to prove at the highest levels of competition, but their floor is so reliably high. It’s all in the execution—the Cavs know that if they run their stuff, they’ll get clean looks. They’re talented enough to play their way and win, which puts all the adaptive pressure on their opponents. We should fully expect the Cavs to be in the conference finals, and they should fully expect it, too.

Dollinger: Finals run. They might have won 64 games, but the regular season has never meant less, so throw all precedent arguments out the window. There’s no denying this team is a juggernaut, but the playoffs put players in different contexts. What works in December doesn’t always work in April.

Murdock: The status of Jaylen Brown’s knee, which has caused a minor panic in Boston over the last few weeks, especially after it was revealed that he was receiving pain injections for the injury. Everyone in the Celtics’ orbit are outwardly not expressing concern, but if Boston is going to make true on its promise for back-to-back titles, Brown’s bill of health will need to be clean. 

Lambre: Since January the Pacers have been a top six-ish team in the NBA. They’ve been awesome, but nobody believes in them. 

Mahoney: The return of Kawhi Leonard. We might blink and find the Clippers deep in the playoffs, anchored by one of the great postseason killers in NBA history. It wasn’t that long ago that Kawhi felt like a teambuilding liability—too great to give up on, but not available consistently enough to fully rely on. Now Leonard feels like the sharp edge of one of the West’s most formidable teams, and a real threat to every team with their path.

Dollinger: Nico Harrison better pray the Lakers don’t make a Finals run. What’s he going to do, quadruple-down? “I’m not surprised the Lakers made it to the Finals, they have Dorian Finney-Smith and defense wins championships,” he’ll probably say to an enraged Tim MacMahon in three months. If the Lakers reach the conference finals, will the Mavericks fire him the next morning? Will ownership make him do another press conference? If the Lakers win it all, do we vote him as Finals MVP? I still can’t believe this is real.

Beck: I don’t know how under-the-radar this is, but I’m always fascinated when we get a clash of cherished NBA axioms. Veteran savvy beats youth! Playoff experience matters! But also… Older players fatigue faster! Young legs matter! We’ll get this clash in the West, with the (young, spry and inexperienced) Houston Rockets taking on the (wise, aging, championship-steeped) Golden State Warriors. We’ll get a modified version of it with the upstart Detroit Pistons going up against the battle-tested New York Knicks. And of course, the whole league is still wondering whether the 68-win Thunder—with just one playoff series win to date—are truly ready to take the crown, especially if it requires going through some combination of the Lakers, Warriors, Nuggets, and, eventually, the Celtics.

Pina: Not to look too far ahead, but which team will get eliminated in Round 1 and then overreact in the most significant way this summer? The Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors, Lakers, Timberwolves, Pacers, Bucks, and Knicks will all compete knowing that an early dismissal may have tangible consequences on their short-term futures. Throw the Bucks (partially excused because of Damian Lillard’s blood clot but also face the possibility of Giannis Antetokounmpo being unhappy yet again) and Rockets (a young team that’s way ahead of schedule but poised to accelerate their rebuild) and this offseason should be an extremely interesting one.

Parker: Bon Iver just came out with a new album and while there’s still some primo sad man singing, he’s also radiating with a joy on SABLE, fABLE that feels new. This is a huge boon to the people of Wisconsin. Bucks fans should be in naturally better spirits, more hopeful, and able to emotionally bounce back much faster than in years past (should the team experience a fast exit.) 

What’s your Finals prediction? 

Beck: Thunder over Celtics. That was my pick in October, and it still feels right, for the same reasons I listed then. The Thunder have the talent and depth to win it all, and young legs to help them get through the grind of the postseason. As deep and talented as the Celtics are, they’re showing some of the wear and tear that goes with a title defense (see Jaylen Brown’s knee), and that alone could leave them vulnerable in June. 

Pina: Celtics over Nuggets. In seven games. But if the Clippers beat the Nuggets in the first round then I’m changing my pick to them. Sorry not sorry!

Murdock: Celtics over Lakers. LeBron gets one last chance at his fifth ring, but Boston’s depth and size will be too much to overcome, and Luka’s origin story will begin. Celtics in 6. 

Parker: Thunder over Celtics. My preseason prediction was Knicks over Thunder. When my editors asked me halfway through the year, I kept my original teams but changed the winner. Now I’m changing again. I’m disloyal. The Thunder have the fourth-best record of all time and the best point differential in NBA history. Teams with their statistical profile, boasting numbers this prodigious, it’s not just very rare they don’t make the Finals, it’s very rare they don’t win the whole thing. They’ve got the no. 1 ranked defense in the league and the no. 3 offense. They can play any way you ask them to and have a pack of pitbulls on defense that takes, takes, takes. The only reason they’re not an overwhelming favorite is they’re still extremely young and haven’t won one before. Considering their list of bonafides this season, it feels like any answer that isn’t them is just overthinking things. 

Dollinger: Celtics over Thunder. Give us the goods, Silver! Unfortunately for Boston haters everywhere, the Celtics are doing this. We’ve been going through the motions all year. This is a generational team that can only be slowed down by injuries.

Lambre: Celtics over Thunder. The Celtics have the best roster and feel perfectly calibrated. They don’t have a single glaring weakness to exploit on either side of the ball and it’s because their entire rotation—save for maybe Luke Kornet—is made up of plus-players on both sides of the ball. The playoffs are about finding a weakness and then exploiting it. The Celtics don’t have many options in that regard.

Mahoney: Thunder over Celtics. This really feels like OKC’s year. The defense, the depth, and a genuinely unstoppable superstar make for an awfully convincing case—even against the defending champs.