One of the best sports’ weeks of the year is upon us as many sports and non-sports fans will be researching how to win their family or office March Madness bracket pool. There is no better feeling than having bragging rights over some of your closest friends or colleagues by ending on top after the 67-game NCAA Tournament. But what’s the best method?
Well, just pick the winners. Easier said than done, of course. But picking the correct winners is not the only thing you need to be thinking about. “How many people are in your pool?” and “do you have a lot of Duke fans in your pool?” are some things you need to be thinking about if you want to be a bracket pool champion. I’m here to give you some guidance using my college basketball model that simulates the NCAA Tournament 200,000 times to see how likely each team is to make each round.
For starters, the size of your pool is the biggest factor here. If you’re in a large pool, say over 50 people, then you’ll need to pick more upsets to set yourself apart from the rest of the pack. If you’re in a smaller pool with 10 people or less, then you’ll want to stick to the chalk. In other words, don’t pick a ton of upsets.
Remember, the goal of these pools are not to tie with other people and split the winnings. You want to be alone at the top of the standings so being different than your counterparts is paramount.
Every pool has its own unique set of rules. Some value upsets more than others, and you need to know that going in when looking at your strategy.
Bracket strategy for large pools (50-plus people)
As I mentioned earlier, these type of pools are where you want to have your upsets. Every year it seems a top-four seed falls before reaching the Sweet 16 or even a 1 or 2-seed fails to make the Elite Eight. This is where you’ll be able to maximize your expected value. If a 1 or 2-seed falls in the second round, most participants will likely have them going further. If you have them losing in the Sweet 16, you won’t lose as many points.
Checking in on public bracket percentages is vital. If you’re picking upsets, you’ll want to pick against teams that are likely to be the public favorite to maximize the return if they were to fall victim of an upset. We have been granted access to the pick percentages over at CBS Sports Bracket Games and right now Duke is the most picked champion (23 percent) across all their brackets. So if you’re looking to take a 1-seed to win it all, you’re probably best to avoid the Blue Devils and look at Houston, which is only picked to win it all 9 percent of the time.
Not only is checking these metrics important for picking teams to make a deep run but it’s important for picking early round upsets as well. For example, Michigan is picked almost 82 percent of the time in CBS Sports Bracket Games meanwhile my model projects them to get out of their first round matchup with UC San Diego only 54 percent of the time. If you think I’m low on the Wolverines, BetMGM’s implied win probability is only 57 percent.
First-round upsets to target in large pools
CBS Sports Bracket Game pick percentage in parentheses.
- New Mexico (33%)
- VCU (31%)
- Colorado State (28%)
- UC San Diego (18%)
- Liberty (17%)
- McNeese State (16%)
- High Point (15%)
- Troy (6%)
Sweet 16 teams to target in large pools
- Texas A&M (37%)
- Illinois (29%)
- Gonzaga (11%)
- Saint Mary’s (10%)
- VCU (10%)
- UConn (8%)
- Louisville (8%)
- Colorado State (7%)
- Louisville (6%)
Final Four teams to target in large pools
- Tennessee (25%)
- Texas Tech (7%)
- Iowa State (6%)
- Gonzaga (3%)
Championship teams to target in large pools
- Houston (9%)
- Tennessee (3%)
- Texas Tech (<1%)
Bracket strategy for small pools (fewer than 15 people)
This is the opposite of the larger pool strategy. You don’t want to pick a ton of upsets and you definitely want to be favorite-heavy in the Elite Eight. Since the pool is so small, you don’t need a ton of variance to win the whole thing. So stick to the more-likely outcomes and you’ll find success.
First-round upsets to target in small pools
- New Mexico
- VCU
- Colorado State
Sweet 16 teams to target in small pools
- Texas A&M
- Illinois
- Saint Mary’s
Final Four teams to target in small pools
- Tennessee
- Texas Tech
- Iowa State
Championship teams to target in small pools
Bracket strategy for medium pools (16-49 people)
This strategy is, of course, somewhere in the middle. How much risk you put in your bracket probably depends on if your pool is on the smaller side or the larger side of this range. Simply put, you’ll need to be more aggressive in a 40-person pool than a 20-person pool.
When picking which first-round upsets, try to target ones that you think have a better chance of making a run to the Sweet 16. You don’t need to spray the board with upsets but you do want to pick quality teams with favorable paths to maximize the return without going to crazy in the first round.
First-round upsets to target in medium pools
- New Mexico
- VCU
- Colorado State
- UC San Diego
- Liberty
Sweet 16 teams to target in medium pools
- Texas A&M
- Illinois
- Gonzaga
- Saint Mary’s
- VCU
(Photo of Joseph Tugler: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
