The Padres have a massive advantage on the mound, and the big bats in San Diego’s lineup will help propel the home side to a win in the first SNB game of the season!
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
Mar 30, 2025 • 12:36 ET • 4 min read
Sunday Night Baseball greets us with an exciting matchup between the San Diego Padres and the Atlanta Braves.
Atlanta hasn’t started a season 0-4 since 2021 and San Diego hasn’t started a season 4-0 since 1984… two things my Braves vs. Padres predictions expect to happen tonight.
Read why in my MLB picks for March 30.
Braves vs Padres prediction for Sunday Night Baseball
My Braves vs Padres best bet: Padres moneyline (-125 at Caesars)
Thanks to some money that came in on the Atlanta Braves, we’ve gotten a little more value on this price, which brought it into best bet range. I priced the San Diego Padres around -140 favorites, and while many bettors are likely backing the spot on Atlanta, I can’t quite get there.
Today, it’ll see Nick Pivetta on the mound. He comes off one of the more unlucky seasons of his career, with an actual ERA hovering over four but an expected ERA right at three. He’s one of the pitchers I circled in the preseason to back for that exact reason. Some positive regression is coming.
Pivetta will be able to lean more on a strong strikeout clip that placed him in the 90th percentile of baseball last season, and will be able to do that right away today.
Much like last year, Atlanta’s free-swinging style induces lots of whiffs and strikeouts. It ended last year with the eighth-highest strikeout clip in the league and has started this season with the sixth highest.
The barrel rate issues are the other side of Pivetta’s high whiff clip, and it’s certainly something the Braves can attack. However, I’m willing to look past it with an offense that hasn’t fully clicked this season.
AJ Smith-Shawver will oppose Pivetta, and I love the matchup for San Diego.
He made two starts last season, and his last one came here. He was ambushed and pulled in the Wild Card series after allowing three earned runs in just 1 1/3 innings. The 22-year-old righty is still a relatively unknown commodity, but the Padres having so much success against him in that start wasn’t an accident.
His fastball was strong last year, but I’m still dubious about the secondary pitches, which were seized on.
Smith-Shawver will throw nearly 50% off-speed stuff, and this Padres lineup is littered with hitters at the top who crush it. A reliance on the change-up is particularly concerning given the pitch wasn’t very good last season (.288 xBA), and Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, and Jurickson Profar all finished last year with a hard-hit above 40% against it.
This start will be another rough one for Smith-Shawver in Petco Park.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Braves vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres moneylineFernando Tatis Over 1.5 bases
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 RBI
Aside from the underlying metrics that make me highly optimistic about Fernando Tatis‘ upcoming season’s general outlook, I like this matchup.
That change-up we talked about? He finished a shortened season last year with a hard-hit rate of 63% against it. Had he qualified, that would have been among the Top 2% in that category.
I’ll pair it with a correlation of Jackson Merrill to record an RBI. Like in most cases, his position in the lineup behind two big bats makes him a good candidate to push them across. Today is no different.
The BAT’s projection of just over a 0.5 RBI was also a nice feather in the cap of this pick.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Padres odds
Braves vs Padres live odds
Braves vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta +110 | San Diego -130
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-189) | San Diego -1.5 (+158)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Braves vs Padres trend
The San Diego Padres have hit the moneyline in 64 of their last 102 games (+19.25 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres.
How to watch Braves vs Padres and game info
Location Petco Park, San Diego, CA Date Sunday, 3-30-2025 First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET TV ESPN Braves starting pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver
(2024: 0-0, 0.00 ERA) Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta
(2024: 6-12, 4.14 ERA)
Braves vs Padres latest injuries
Braves vs Padres weather
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