Ah, spring is here at last and you can’t wait for the weather to follow suit. For some of us, the warmth is already here, but for others, it might take a while.
While meteorological spring has been around for a few weeks, Thursday marks the start of astronomical spring. That means the calendar says spring begins with the vernal equinox at 5:01 a.m EDT.
According to top spring forecasts, a warm spring and early summer are expected over much of the country from the northern Plains to the Mississippi Valley and Southeast.
A forecast from the Weather Company says “the latest temperature outlook through June shows an expanding area of heat in the West and Plains, while the Northeast may keep its cool much of spring.”
And February seasonal temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, shows spring could hold above-average temperatures for a swath of the nation from California to Florida to Maine. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is set to update that forecast Thursday.
Meanwhile, folks in the Southwest may soon think that spring has been skipped entirely and that summer is here. Phoenix is forecast to hit 97 degrees next Tuesday, and there’s a chance the city could hit 100 degrees at some point next week, the National Weather Service said. This would be remarkably early: On average, Phoenix usually sees its first 100 degree day on May 2.
Spring leaf-out arriving unevenly across the USA
According to the National Phenology Network, in an update released this week, “spring leaf-out continues to spread north across the country. In the eastern half of the country, spring is coming in fits and starts, arriving later than a long-term average (1991-2020) in some areas, and earlier in others.”
For example, “Omaha, Nebraska, is two weeks early, Indianapolis is 10 days early, Washington, DC is three days late,” the Network reported. “Spring arrival is variable in California, Arizona, and Nevada, with spring arriving a week late to two weeks early, depending on the location. The Pacific Northwest coast is one to two weeks late.”
Scorching Southwest
The forecast in Phoenix could be historic. The earliest 100-degree reading in Phoenix occurred on March 26, 1988, so an all-time record for earliest 100-degree temperature is possible next week.
In addition, drought may rapidly develop and intensify over the next four weeks in portions of western Texas and eastern New Mexico, according to the Climate Prediction Center‘s outlook for rapid onset drought (also called “flash drought“). Below-normal precipitation and warmer-than-normal temperatures were prevalent over eastern New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle all winter.
According to the CPC, warm temperatures are likely to continue for portions of the Texas Rio Grande Valley and Big Bend regions, which have struggled through an “exceptional” drought since July 2024. These temperatures, combined with below-normal precipitation, low soil moisture, and increased wind speeds, raise potential for continued wildfire risk in the Southern Plains in the coming weeks.
Chill will hang on in the Northeast
Looking ahead, later in March and into April, parts of the Northeast, Great Lakes and Northwest may skew a little cooler than average, according to the Weather Company. That includes cities such as Detroit, New York and Seattle.
“This somewhat cooler Northeast outlook is due to the orientation of a global pattern of rainfall and dry weather near the equator called the Madden-Julian Oscillation that could force cooler air from Canada southward,” according to Todd Crawford, Vice President of meteorology at Atmospheric G2, a private weather forecasting firm.
La Niña on the way out
On a larger scale, climate troublemaker La Niña, a natural cooling of Pacific ocean water in the tropics, is on the way out, forecasters said last week.
La Niña conditions are weakening and a shift to an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral climate pattern is expected to develop in April and persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer, the Climate Prediction Center said recently.
What does this mean for our weather?
“La Niña is over for now, as we are officially in a neutral status and sea surface anomalies in the central Pacific are right at zero. With that said, there will likely be dryness in the central and southern Plains for at least the next month or so, which will impact winter wheat growth,” said Donald Keeney, senior agricultural meteorologist at Maxar.
Contributing: Reuters
