Poilievre led the party to gains in areas where the party has struggled in recent federal elections. Notably, the Liberals pulled in roughly 49 per cent of the vote counted so far compared to about 45 per cent for the Conservatives — big improvements for both parties after the NDP vote collapsed.

As Mike Crawley noted earlier, the Conservatives picked up seats in Toronto’s suburban 905 region. Party sources say Poilievre’s tough-on-crime message had a particular appeal in areas where violent crimes and property crimes have been a major concern.

Poilievre’s effort to court blue-collar workers, particularly those in private sector unions, also paid off with a strong Conservative showing in industrial areas like Ontario’s Niagara region and southwestern Ontario locales like London and Windsor.

The party outperformed in some areas of Atlantic Canada, picking up a seat in Newfoundland and Labrador, and benefited from progressive vote splits in B.C.

Poilievre also held off a meaningful Liberal breakthrough in urban Alberta and Saskatchewan, although Carney, the party’s first western leader in a generation, delivered relatively respectable results in the West — particularly in B.C.’s Lower Mainland.

But Poilievre lost his own Ottawa-area seat of Carleton — a shocking result given he’s held that riding for more than 20 years through successive political waves. It’s that loss in particular that makes his future so uncertain. He has huge party support but he will have to prosecute the Liberals from outside the House of Commons, at least for now.