Last season was a chalky NCAA tournament. I think we’re in for another one. I hope I’m wrong. Here are my picks for each region and the Final Four. I’ll be rooting for this not to happen — or at least for some good chaos in the early rounds.

RELATED: See Graham Couch’s entire NCAA tournament bracket

SOUTH REGION

For most of the season, 1-seed Auburn looked like one of the two best teams in the country. The Tigers are deep, with big guards, good athletes and play with a physicality that wears teams down. They’ve had a couple clunkers lately, partly due to foul trouble, but I wouldn’t sleep on them even if there are a couple hotter teams. In the South Region, going through Atlanta, I don’t see anyone in the first three rounds that’s likely to knock Auburn off. I think Michigan State, the 2-seed, has a pretty decent path in the bottom of this bracket. No. 3-seed Iowa State is without lead guard Keshon Gilbert, which is a blow. The Spartans have shown with their depth, defense, pace, rebounding and Jase Richardson that they can beat good teams and do so in any environment. My sense, though, is that Auburn is better than anyone MSU has faced in the Big Ten. We’ll see.

The pick: Auburn.

Need a break? Play the USA TODAY Daily Crossword Puzzle.

WEST REGION

No. 1-seed Florida is the hottest team in the country right now and is a popular pick to win it all. The Gators are the No. 1 in the country in offensive efficiency, per Kenpom, top 10 in defensive efficiency and one of the best rebounding teams in the sports. They’ve got just about everything, especially over the last six games as they’ve torn through the end of their SEC schedule, including the SEC tournament. Also in this region, which goes through San Francisco, is another popular pick and good story in 2-seed St. John’s, which does a lot of things well, though might not shoot it consistently enough to get through four straight games, let alone six. There are a few other teams to watch: 4-seed Maryland, 5-seed Memphis, 12-seed Colorado State. Florida will have a tough game against one of them as early as the Sweet 16. 

The pick: Florida

EAST REGION

This is the Duke and Cooper Flagg region, playing out in Newark, New Jersey. We’ll see if Flagg’s ankle is close to 100% after injuring it in the ACC tournament. The 1-seed Blue Devils are more than Flagg. They’re top four in both offensive and defensive efficiency, via Kenpom, and a top 20 3-point shooting team. But I think a couple Big Ten teams could give them fits, especially if Flagg isn’t quite himself. Duke could see 5-seed Oregon in the Sweet 16. No. 3 seed Wisconsin, along with 2-seed Alabama, are also teams I like quite a bit in this region. Oregon had won eight straight before its loss to MSU in the Big Ten tournament. The Ducks, I think, can play up and challenge elite teams. Same for Wisconsin, which on the right days, is elite.

The pick: Wisconsin

MIDWEST REGION

The bottom half of the Midwest Region might be the most compelling of any region. No. 2-seed Tennessee, No. 3 Kentucky, No. 6 Illinois and No. 7 UCLA are all interesting teams that might be able to beat anyone. Up top, though, No. 1-seed Houston is the clear favorite and I think the best team in this region, which goes through Indianapolis. The Cougars outclassed the rest of the Big 12 on their way to 30 wins. This is a top-2 defense, via Kenpom, and a top 10 offense, largely because Houston makes 40% of its 3-point shots collectively. 

The pick: Houston

RELATED: Join Graham Couch’s NCAA tournament pool

THE FINAL FOUR

Auburn, Florida, Houston and Wisconsin — that’s my Final Four. Three No. 1 seeds and the Badgers, a 3 seed. I think Houston would be too much for Wisconsin. And in the battle royale on the other side, the evidence points to Florida over Auburn. The Gators are the hot team and won the only matchup, at Auburn, no less. Still, I’ll take Johni Broome and Auburn. Gut feel. Contrarian pick, perhaps. But for most of the season, Auburn was the best team I saw. I’ll stick with the Tigers in the semifinal. In the final, though, I like Houston. The Cougars are well coached, a seasoned team, a great defensive team and an elite outside shooting team. It’s an ideal combination.

The pick: Houston

Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.