Creighton vs. Louisville odds, March Madness predictions: 2025 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

USATSI

The ninth-seeded Creighton Bluejays take on the eighth-seeded Louisville Cardinals in a South Regional first-round matchup in the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Thursday afternoon. Creighton is coming off an 82-66 loss to St. John’s in Saturday’s Big East Conference championship game, while Louisville fell 73-62 to Duke in the ACC title game. The Bluejays (24-10), who finished second in the Big East at 15-5, finished the regular season by winning 15 of their final 18 games. The Cardinals (27-7), who tied with Clemson for second in the ACC at 18-2, have won 11 of 12 and 21 of 23.

Tipoff from Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky., is set for 12:15 p.m. ET. Creighton holds a 2-1 edge in the all-time series between the teams. Louisville is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Creighton vs. Louisville odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 145.5. Before making any Louisville vs. Creighton picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Creighton vs. Louisville and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Louisville vs. Creighton:

Creighton vs. Louisville spread: Louisville -2.5
Creighton vs. Louisville over/under: 145.5 points
Creighton vs. Louisville money line: Louisville -153, Creighton +128
CREI: The Bluejays have hit the money line in 27 of their last 37 games (+12.80 units)
LOU: The Cardinals have hit the game total under in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.95 units)
Creighton vs. Louisville picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Louisville can cover

Senior guard Terrence Edwards Jr. is coming off a monster performance in Saturday’s ACC title game loss to Duke. In 40 minutes of action, he scored 29 points, while grabbing six rebounds and dishing out three assists. He had 21 points, eight rebounds and three assists in a 76-73 win over Clemson in the semifinals. In 34 games, including 31 starts, the James Madison transfer is averaging 16.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.6 assists in 32.6 minutes.

Another senior transfer playing a key role for the Cardinals is guard Chucky Hepburn, who played his first three years at Wisconsin. In 33 games this season, all starts, he is averaging 16.2 points, 5.8 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 2.5 steals in 34.6 minutes. He scored 20 points, while adding eight assists and two rebounds in a 75-73 win over Stanford in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. See which team to pick here.

Why Creighton can cover

Senior center Ryan Kalkbrenner has played in 33 games, all starts, and is averaging 19.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.7 blocks and 1.5 assists in 34.2 minutes. He has registered 10 double-doubles on the season, including a 27-point, 15-rebound effort in an 87-74 win over Butler on March 8. He had 32 points, nine rebounds, five blocks and two assists in an 85-81 double-overtime win over DePaul in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals. He had 49 points and 11 rebounds in a 99-86 season-opening win over Rio Grande Valley.

Senior guard Steven Ashworth also helps power the Bluejays. In 33 games, all starts, he is averaging 16.3 points, 6.8 assists and 4.1 rebounds in 35.9 minutes. He is coming off a 13-point, seven-assist and six-rebound effort in Saturday’s loss to St. John’s. He registered a double-double with 23 points, 11 assists and six rebounds in the March 8 win over Butler. See which team to pick here.

How to make Creighton vs. Louisville picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 150 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in nearly 70% of simulations. You can only get the model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Louisville vs. Creighton, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Creighton vs. Louisville spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,000 on its top-ranked college basketball picks, and find out.