Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
The final weekend of the NCAA Tournament is almost upon us, but first: the Elite Eight. Four phenomenal matchups await as each team vies to punch its ticket to Tampa for the Final Four.
No. 1 seed UCLA and No. 3 seed LSU face off in a rematch of last season’s Sweet 16. Two of the most prolific players in the paint this season (Lauren Betts and Aneesah Morrow) will clash. Tremendous guards fill the backcourts for each team, made more notable by LSU star Flau’jae Johnson being cleared to play after sustaining an eye injury in the Sweet 16.
In another rematch, this time from a nonconference game earlier this season, No. 1 seed South Carolina and No. 2 seed Duke meet again. Will the Gamecocks roll to a fifth straight Final Four, or can the Blue Devils return for the first time in nearly two decades?
Then, a Lone Star showdown as No. 1 seed Texas and No. 2 seed TCU will battle it out. The teams play different styles; the Horned Frogs took 25.3 3-point attempts this season (26th in the nation) compared to 10.7 per game from the Longhorns (358th in the nation). Texas finished in the top 10 nationally in free throw attempts and offensive rebounding, but TCU sits in the bottom third of both statistics. This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the NCAA Tournament.
No. 1 seed USC and No. 2 seed UConn, who played perhaps the best game of the season in December, will also rematch, but both teams are looking quite different in March. The Trojans gritted out a gutsy Sweet 16 win over Kansas State after losing star guard JuJu Watkins to a knee injury in the second round. The Huskies are fresh off a blowout of Oklahoma and a record-breaking performance from star guard Paige Bueckers.
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The way the Bruins can adapt to the moment sets them apart. That adaptability shone brightly in the third quarters during the second round and Sweet 16, as they outscored Richmond and Ole Miss 54-22 combined. Lauren Betts is the undeniable engine that drives UCLA, the foundation of an elite defense and a dominant post presence at 6-7. Her teammates’ ability to shift and respond around her to opposing game plans has the Bruins playing elite basketball. They can find their groove hitting open shots, shifting the game by forcing turnovers and bullying on the glass. The Bruins have the tools and confidence to win it all.
Behind a UConn March Madness scoring record from star Paige Bueckers, the Huskies rolled into the Elite Eight. When they click offensively, it’s hard to find a team that’s tougher to guard, as every set piece has a plethora of moving parts and options within it. Opponents can’t take a second off in a possession against the Huskies. Despite being a smaller team, UConn plays with force on defense, dictating with timing and pressure. Teams with length and switching were able to muck up UConn’s offense during nonconference play, so that will be something to track moving forward. The Huskies have a legitimate shot at returning to the Final Four and winning a national championship.
After a thrilling back-and-forth Sweet 16 victory against Maryland, the Gamecocks will appear in their fifth straight Elite Eight. For anyone questioning whether South Carolina has a go-to player, look no further than MiLaysia Fulwiley’s performance. Her ability to create an easy look at the rim in a mucky game looms large as the Gamecocks go deeper into March. South Carolina didn’t play its typical level of assertive defense, something it’ll need against Duke. Yet, it stands out that South Carolina still found a way to survive and advance despite the absence of their regular winning formula of efficiency and forced turnovers.
Texas advanced to the Elite Eight after a rematch with SEC foe Tennessee — its first significant test of the NCAA Tournament. How the Longhorns are winning hasn’t changed, dominating the paint and forcing turnovers. However, Texas has gone smaller in March, playing with more speed without sacrificing the size, strength and grit that earned it a No. 1 seed. Though 3-point shooting will never be the Longhorns’ strength, the additional length and quickness injected by more sizable roles for freshmen Bryanna Preston and Jordan Lee have been undeniable. The tweaked formula for Texas should bode well against potent TCU.
The Horned Frogs make their way to the Elite Eight for the first time in program history with the potential to go even further thanks to the prowess of their high-powered offense.The two-player game of Hailey Van Lith and Sedona Prince was effective all season, and its potency has only heightened in postseason play. Van Lith’s patience and composure as a ballhandler and facilitator make it difficult to guard her in the pick-and-roll. She has the vision to pick apart opponents’ defense, the 3-point shot to punish anyone giving her space and the downhill guile to put the ball in the basket. With Prince, at 6-foot-7, present in the paint, the Horned Frogs present a constant mismatch on both ends of the court, and they use that to their advantage. TCU has a trip to the Final Four in sight.
The Tigers are ferocious on the glass, including a plus-18 rebounding margin against NC State in the Sweet 16. Aneesah Morrow’s play has been stellar in the Big Dance, offering a difficult mismatch for every frontcourt opponent that LSU has faced. The uptick in Sa’Myah Smith’s confidence and production has also proven to be a massive boost alongside Morrow, adding another punch in the paint. It will be interesting to see how the Tigers fare against UCLA in a rematch of last season’s Sweet 16, but with very different personnel. The size and length the Bruins bring isn’t common, and is something LSU hasn’t yet seen in March Madness. Can the Tigers spread the floor enough to somewhat open up the paint?
The Trojans return to the Elite Eight after a spirited performance in a gutsy, wire-to-wire battle with Kansas State. JuJu Watkins, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the second round, is irreplaceable. However, this team’s defensive foundation remains, and was key in keeping the fifth most efficient offense in the country to one of its lowest-scoring outings of the year. The biggest tactical question ahead of USC’s Sweet 16 matchup was where its offense would come from, and the freshmen tandem of Kennedy Smith and Avery Howell provided an answer. Smith tied her career high of 19 points, taking a career-high 14 shots in the game and spending much more time initiating the offense than typical. What will the Trojans’ offense look like now that there’s a full game of tape on this shorthanded group?
The Blue Devils played arguably the most stifling defense of any team in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, holding North Carolina to just 28.3 percent shooting and 38 points in the Sweet 16. Coach Kara Lawson’s team is playing on a string, physical on screens, tough in the post and making plays in gaps. No questions whatsoever about Duke’s ability to defend and win when games drag. Can the Blue Devils find more consistent and efficient looks offensively in the Elite Eight? Against a tremendous defensive team in South Carolina, who held off Duke during their regular season, playing poised and in control will be key.
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(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images, Gary Cosby Jr. / Tuscaloosa News, Robert Hanashiro / Imagn Images)
