It’s too early to claim that.

No matter what it is you’re thinking, I can confidently say that a mere one series into the season, it’s just too early. There may be telling indicators, both good and bad. There may be reasons for optimism or causes of concern. But it’s too early to conclude anything — and too early, frankly, to ponder most things.

But people will. It’s human nature. What I’m asking is for you to go against your nature and, for the good of your Fantasy Baseball team, not overreact to anything you’ve seen so far.

Namely, I want you to tune out these six bold and unnecessarily confident claims, some of which you may have already seen elsewhere.

Let me reiterate that these claims are not ones I believe. My entire purpose in stating them here is to counteract them. Skimmers beware!

Rafael Devers is irrevocably broken, and you should dump him now for whatever you can get

Seeing as his spring debut was delayed by continued concerns over the shoulder issues that plagued him all of last year, ultimately forcing his move to DH, you hate to see him set a record for most strikeouts through four games with 12, going 0 for 16 during the time. Worse yet, his average bat speed is just 69 mph, even lower than the 71 mph that marked his precipitous decline last August and September, when he slashed .205/.295/.329 as compared to .302/.380/.599 in the four months prior.

But what are Devers and manager Alex Cora saying? The gist is that these struggles are more a product of timing and mechanics. Devers is rusty, basically, which would make sense given that he played in just five games all spring. More specifically, he’s had trouble catching up to fastballs, which is not a foreign issue to him, as Ian Brown of MLB.com has pointed out, citing multiple instances of it in 2021. But a look back will reveal that 2021 season to be Devers’ second-best by OPS.

Cora, meanwhile, thinks Devers’ tardiness is a mechanical issue having to do with the placement of his feet. “That’s something that we have noticed,” the manager said. “Without going too deep into it, if you’re not grounded, you’re not going to be on time.”

In other words, while the timing of this slump for Devers is suspicious, it’s not without precedent and not without a possible solution. And honestly, the concern level across Fantasy Baseball is so high right now that it does you no good to shop him. Given that he was your third- or fourth-round pick, you’re too invested in him to settle for nickels on the dollar, and the chances of him righting the ship are likely much higher than of you getting a fair return.

Remember how I said Devers’ 12 strikeouts through four games was a new record? The one he broke was shared by Ronald Acuna in 2020 and Brent Rooker just last year. Look back at where their numbers ended up.

The ‘torpedo bat’ is so transformative that it will alter the hitter/pitcher dynamic as fundamentally as the ‘juiced ball’ did

The so-called torpedo bat has become a popular choice in the Yankees clubhouse and a national conversation after a three-game series in which the Yankees homered 15 times against the Brewers. That’s 11.5 percent of the home runs hit across the entire league so far.

For those unfamiliar with the torpedo bat, just imagine if the “fat part of the bat” really was the fattest part of the bat. Traditionally, an MLB bat keeps widening all the way to the tip, which isn’t where a hitter wants to be making contact. Aaron Leanhardt, a former MIT physicist and analyst for the Yankees who’s now field coordinator for the Marlins, is credited with popularizing the torpedo bat’s use. Here’s how fringe major-leaguer Kevin Smith said Lenhardt sold him on the bat:

Of the 15 home runs the Yankees hit in the Brewers series, nine were by players using the torpedo bat, including three by Jazz Chisholm, two by Austin Wells, two by Anthony Volpe, one by Paul Goldschmidt, and one by Cody Bellinger. Notably, the team leader in home runs, Aaron Judge, does not use a torpedo bat.

“The past couple of seasons kind of speak for itself,” Judge said after his three-homer game Saturday. “Why try to change something?”

Still, the torpedo bat is getting much of the credit for the Yankees’ early power binge, and already there are reports of other players, such as Rhys Hoskins, ordering one. The entire Braves team is also expecting a shipment. There’s definite smoke to this fire.

But realistically … no, it’s not going to bring about a league-wide offensive explosion. For one thing, it’s not entirely new. There have been variations of Leanhardt’s design in the past, with reports suggesting that Ketel Marte has used a torpedo-shaped bat as far back as 2019. It’s also not just the Yankees who have been spotted using torpedo bats this year, but others like Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner. Could it help around the margins? Sure, but squaring up the ball or even just making contact are still major hurdles to success. I think Volpe has the best perspective on it:

“It’s probably just a placebo,” Volpe said. “A lot of it is just looking up at your bat and seeing how big the barrel is, but it’s exciting. I think any 0.01 percent mentally that it gives you confidence, it helps.”

The more likely reason for the Yankees’ home run barrage over the weekend was the caliber of pitching they were facing. Five of their 15 home runs came against Nestor Cortes, who relies less on stuff than deception, was missing more than 1 mph from his fastball, and is as well-known to the Yankees as any pitcher they could have faced, having spent the past four years with them. Another six of the home runs came off Aaron Civale and Connor Thomas, who are also squishy soft-tossers.

You should have known better than to draft Bailey Ober or Reynaldo Lopez

After all, they were among the pitchers whose velocity was lagging most this spring. Who, then, couldn’t have seen debuts like this coming?

I have news for you, though: Lopez’s velocity, now that the games count again, wasn’t down in the slightest. It was spot on with last year when he had a 1.99 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. There are reasons to believe he overachieved then, and perhaps in time, we’ll look back at his 2025 debut as the start of his regression. With his stuff still being intact, though, you can’t be so quick to dismiss him, instead regarding him as one of many pitchers this weekend who didn’t look as sharp as usual the first time through. It happens.

Ober’s debut, though, goes beyond just “not sharp.” It was an utter disaster, and even worse, his velocity was down like in spring training, with his fastball missing 1.4 mph and his slider missing 2.5 mph. The velocity dip doesn’t tell the whole story, though. This tweet beat writer Dan Hayes of The Athletic does:

Bet you didn’t think you’d read the word “puking” in a CBS Sports article today. Well, I’m sorry for that image, but it does provide vital context for Ober’s debut which I think gives him a complete pass.

I’ll also point out that for as bad as Sunday’s performance was, Ober’s 2024 debut was even worse. Back then, he gave up eight earned runs in just 1 1/3 innings, surrendering three home runs. Fair to say he bounced back nicely from that.

Spencer Torkelson, Kyle Manzardo, and Tyler Soderstrom are better than your starting first baseman

All three have prospect pedigree and went largely undrafted in CBS Sports leagues, so when they start off as good as this, it’s reasonable to wonder if you should make a swap:

What doesn’t show up in those numbers is that Torkelson looked completely transformed this spring as well, homering five times while striking out at just a 20 percent clip. What also doesn’t show up is that four of Manzardo’s five hits — including the two homers, a triple, and a double — have come against left-handers, basically ending the platoon conversation before it’s even started.

Wait, aren’t I supposed to be arguing against these three? That’s the premise, yes, but I do think they’re exciting pickups with genuine upside that you may not have another chance to grab if you don’t do so now. Just do it with a bench spot rather than swapping out the first baseman who you’ve pinned all your hopes and dreams to. There’s a reason you liked Jake Burger, Michael Toglia, Rhys Hoskins, or Ryan Mountcastle enough to invest draft capital in them, and the likeliest scenario remains that they’ll deliver better numbers than the three in whom you didn’t invest draft capital. One weekend shouldn’t change your perspective on any of them. It’s just that now you have some proof of concept for Torkelson, Manzardo, and Soderstrom and perhaps also some urgency to act.

Look, in a shallower league where you hardly invested anything in Hoskins, you’ll probably have another shot at him if you let him go. Likewise, Burger, Toglia, and Mountcastle were never of high priority in points leagues. There are instances where you have to chase the upside, I acknowledge, but I’d hope that in doing so, you wouldn’t leave yourself with no other recourse at first base. Certainly, making a play for Torkelson, Mazardo or Soderstrom shouldn’t come at the expense of a Christian Walker or Triston Casas type.

For what it’s worth, the order I’ve listed them here (Torkelson, Mazardo, Soderstrom) is the order I’d prioritize them in Fantasy, with Torkelson surpassing Manzardo both because he’s delivered on his potential once before, in 2023, and because he’s actually first base-eligible rather than DH-only. Soderstrom, meanwhile, has the clearest plate discipline and platoon concerns of the three.

We need to stop falling for spring fakeouts like Robbie Ray, Gavin Williams, Clay Holmes and Nick Lodolo

I think it’s fair to say that none of these pitchers did what we hoped they’d do the first time through. Here’s a quick little run-through:

Granted, the only one who was a total miss was Holmes, and I think it’s fair to say that the concern level is highest for him. His last efforts as a starter came seven years ago and didn’t amount to much success. Poor control and a limited arsenal were what plagued him then, and they were also at issue in his 2025 debut. He worked on broadening his arsenal this spring and found particular success with a changeup … which he then threw only four times Thursday. You could take that as a good sign (wait until he throws it more) or a bad one (why didn’t he?).

The issue for Ray, Williams, and Lodolo is more with regard to strikeouts, or a lack thereof. Holmes is less reliant on them since his ground-ball rate is on the level of Framber Valdez, but the other three aren’t going to succeed without oodles of missed bats. And really, Ray’s debut was decent in that regard. Sure, he had just the four strikeouts, but nine whiffs on 78 pitches isn’t a terrible rate. He actually had a perfect game going through five innings but then got rattled on a pitch clock violation, leading to a couple of home runs. Factor in that his velocity resembled that from his Cy Young-winning 2021 season, and I’d say that of the four, my concern level for him is the lowest.

I don’t know what to make of Williams. A story early in spring training noted that he had fixed his mechanics after an elbow injury messed them up last spring. The induced vertical break was up on his fastball, and it was generating whiffs at an unbelievable rate. Then, just as quickly as it started, it stopped. This continued into his season debut when he had just six whiffs on 74 pitches, including four on 46 fastballs. He also didn’t throw his cutter at all, which was his best swing-and-miss pitch last year, so maybe this explains the lack of whiffs more than anything having to do with his fastball.

I feel like I have a slightly better read on Lodolo, whose lack of whiffs seemed almost intentional. He leaned less on his curveball (16% vs. last year’s 27%) and more on his sinker (37% vs. last year’s 29%), eschewing a whiff pitch for a contact pitch, which I think was more of a strategic choice and not an indicator of how he’s feeling about his curveball. Still, the revitalization of that pitch after last year’s blister issue is the whole reason we got excited about him this spring.

For now, I think the proper approach to these four is as simple as … let ’em cook. Our reasons for elevating them this spring were sound, and one start shouldn’t negate all of that. They’ll need to flash the potential we suspect they have at some point before the end of April, I’d say, but until then, I plan to hold firm.

Luke Jackson and Emilio Pagan are excellent pickups for saves

Jackson certainly appears to be the closer for the Rangers and Pagan for the Reds as of now, but I think those of you dumping truckloads of FAB dollars into them need to be reminded that these roles can change. The closer one in particular is known for that, and what will cause it to change fastest of all is ninth-inning stress. It doesn’t even have to amount to blown saves, necessarily, though those are also likely to result for relievers with the track record of these two.

What track record am I referring to? Well, Jackson across 10 seasons has put together a 4.29 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Does that sound closer-caliber to you? His best stretch was 2021-2023 (really just 1 1/2 seasons because of time lost to Tommy John surgery) when he put together a 2.32 ERA, but even that came with a high-ish 1.19 WHIP and even more telling 3.53 FIP because of a consistently high walk rate. And obviously, things took an ugly turn for him last year. We already saw him blow a tie in epic fashion on Opening Day, and his most recent save Sunday was nearly blown after he put two men on base. Setup man Chris Martin would be a clear upgrade over Jackson at closer, and the same could be said for others in the Rangers bullpen.

Pagan is an even more concerning case. Sure, manager Terry Francona said after watching Ian Gibaut blow a save on Opening Day that he probably should have held back Pagan for the ninth, and he indeed did so for Pagan’s first save Saturday, which leads me to believe that’s the plan going forward. The issue isn’t how firmly Pagan has the role, though. The issue is that the nine-year vet is notoriously homer-prone, such that apart from one season with the Rays when he had an inordinately high strikeout rate and another season with the Twins when he managed to keep the home runs at bay, he has always had an ERA in the mid-to-high fours. That propensity for the long ball is even more pronounced at the venue the Reds call home.

Francona has intimated more than once that he sees Tony Santillan as the Reds’ most valuable reliever and has also suggested that he’d really like to see Alexis Diaz reclaim the role if he shores up his command while recovering from a hamstring injury. I’d still argue that those two are better bets for saves long-term even if Pagan is the better bet right now.