I’ve seen a few movies in theaters over the last couple of months that I really liked (Novocaine, Companion) or even loved (Black Bag), yet they’ve been — at best — mediocre performers at the box office, even against their relatively modest budgets. I watch them in theaters because I want studios to continue making original films like these.
Studios are in the business of turning a profit, and sometimes I wonder — despite their middling box-office performances — why they continue to take a chance on them. Honestly, I probably could’ve predicted that, despite the rave reviews, Black Bag would top out at around $35 million domestically and, at best, $60 million worldwide. On a $50 million budget (plus marketing costs), that’s a movie that will end up in the red.
And yet, studios will still spend $100 million on Mickey 17, $90 million on Ben Affleck’s Air, $40 million on George Clooney’s The Boys in the Boat, or whatever they spent on Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh’s We Live in Time.
I think the studios know something we don’t, and I’ve been dying to figure it out. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera may hold at least part of the answer. Den of Thieves 2 earned $57 million worldwide ($36 million domestic, $21 million international) on a $40 million budget. With marketing costs and revenue-sharing with exhibitors, that is not a profitable film theatrically. And yet, Lionsgate is moving ahead with a third film. Why?
The answer, I believe, lies in PVOD: the home digital market, where we can now rent (or buy) movies as soon as 18 days after they debut in theaters. Den of Thieves 2 was released on January 10, 2025, and only 18 days later, it was available on digital home video.
Studios obviously wouldn’t keep releasing movies digitally so soon after their theatrical run if it cannibalized box-office profits. In reality, I think some of these films earn the majority of their revenue on home digital, where studios get a far more lucrative 80/20 split (compared to 50/50 with exhibitors).
Den of Thieves 2, according to Flixchart, is the ninth most popular digital movie of the year on Amazon and the 13th most popular on iTunes. Rentals likely started at $19.99 before settling, a few weeks later, at $5.99. Studios don’t publish PVOD revenue figures, so we have no idea how much these movies make in the home digital market.
However, one studio — Universal — did reveal their revenue figures once. Wicked, which hit home digital on New Year’s Day, earned a whopping $70 million from rentals in its first week. Wicked had a $112 million theatrical opening. After exhibitors took their 50 percent, Universal pocketed $56 million. The same movie earned $70 million in its first week on digital, and after platforms took their 20 percent, Universal still made … $56 million.
Den of Thieves 2, meanwhile, is 9th on the year on Amazon Digital and 13th on iTunes. If we average that out, it’s the 11th most popular digital movie of the year. It also happens to be the 11th highest-grossing movie at the box office this year. It’s not far-fetched to believe that, on home video, Den of Thieves 2 doubled its revenue for Lionsgate — and that’s before it was licensed by Netflix. That movie actually hit Netflix today, and anyone who’s ever checked the top 10 streaming movies on Netflix knows that there’s almost always a Gerard Butler or Mark Wahlberg movie in the mix.
Den of Thieves 2 also has exactly the kind of audience — majority over 35 years old — that likely prefers watching movies at home. That’s the same audience — older homebodies — who will probably end up watching Black Bag when it’s released digitally, likely 18 days after its theatrical run. The studio effectively doubles its revenue, and then streaming licensing is just gravy for years to come.
In fact, I’ve seen several other films catering to the same older audience that have been crushing it on home digital. Conclave, for instance, was released last October, hit digital in December, and has been the fourth-biggest movie on Amazon and the fifth on iTunes this year (despite streaming for free on Peacock). I’m guessing it’s actually made more on home digital than the $31 million it earned in theaters. The Substance made $77 million theatrically and is the seventh biggest movie on Amazon/iTunes this year. Before hitting Hulu this week — where it’s already the most-streamed movie on the platform this year — Anora was the fourth most popular movie on iTunes and the 10th on Amazon digital in 2024.
These are movies, like Black Bag — and to a lesser extent, Companion and Novocaine — that home audiences are far more receptive to. While big tentpoles will continue dominating the box office, many modestly budgeted films with underwhelming theatrical numbers are still turning a profit for studios. Otherwise, why greenlight Den of Thieves 3?
