Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings, wrote in a note that Trump’s tariffs threaten to push much of the world into an economic recession.
“The U.S. tariff rate on all imports is now around 22% from 2.5% in 2024. That rate was last seen around 1910,” Sonola wrote. “This is a game changer, not only for the US economy but for the global economy. Many countries will likely end up in a recession. You can throw most forecasts out the door, if this tariff rate stays on for an extended period of time.”
President Donald Trump arrives today at the White House Rose Garden.Andrew Harnik / Getty Images
Lori Wallach, director of Rethink Trade, an advocacy group within the American Economic Liberties Project, a think tank, said in a statement following Trump’s tariffs rollout that he “must take immediate action to stop corporations from using the pretext of these tariffs to price-gouge the very Americans already slammed by decades of bad trade policy and corporate greed.”
While tariffs on certain countries could “help restore America’s capacity to produce more of the critical products needed for American families to be healthy and safe,” she said, they should be accompanied by “tax credits to build demand for U.S.-made goods, incentives for investment in new production capacity and bans on stock buybacks, and easier union formation so gains go to wages, not just profits.”
In a somewhat cryptic post on X, Poland Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote: “Friendship means partnership. Partnership means really and truly reciprocal tariffs. Adequate decisions are needed.” He added the E.U. and U.S. flag emojis.
Trump’s reciprocal tariff on the E.U. is set to be 20%.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, seen as close to Trump, said today that tariffs introduced by his administration were “wrong” and would not benefit the United States.
“We will do everything we can to work towards an agreement with the United States, with the goal of avoiding a trade war that would inevitably weaken the West in favor of other global players,” she said in a statement on Facebook.
“In any case, as always, we will act in the interest of Italy and its economy, also engaging with other European partners,” she added.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed to Bloomberg News that goods brought in from China would now face an effective tariff rate of 54% — the sum of its newly imposed 34% rate plus the 20% rate Trump had already instituted in his new administration.
Asked whether he was concerned by the market moves, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg Television that he has “learned not to look at what goes on during after-hours markets.”
Bessent added that the Nasdaq has a “‘mag7’ problem, not a MAGA problem,” referring to seven large tech stocks often called the “magnificent 7.”
“I would advise none of the countries to panic,” he added.
Global markets reacted sharply and swiftly after Trump revealed his much-anticipated tariff plans today, with investors fleeing U.S. stock indexes and stocks of companies that rely on global supply chains plummeting.
The ETF (exchange-traded fund) that tracks the S&P 500 plunged more than 2.7%. The fund that tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slid more than 3.5%, and fund tracking the Dow indicates it would drop more than 415 points at tomorrow’s opening bell.
A group Bloomberg News has described as having “links to steel” has hailed Trump’s tariffs announcement.
“Today’s trade action prioritizes domestic manufacturers and America’s workers,” Alliance for American Manufacturing President Scott Paul said in a statement. “These hardworking men and women have seen unfair trade cut the ground from beneath their feet for decades. They deserve a fighting chance. Our workers can out-compete anyone in the world, but they need a level playing field to do it. This trade reset is a necessary step in the right direction.”
To put today’s announcement in perspective, Douglas Irwin, a Dartmouth professor who is a leading expert on the history of economic policy, said on X that Trump’s tarrifs are “bigger than Smoot-Hawley.”
A Senate webpage describes the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, put in place in the 1930s, as “among the most catastrophic acts in congressional history.”
The tariffs Trump announced today will range from 10% to 49% country by country, according to a handout provided to reporters listing tariffs on 25 countries.
Trump said the level of tariffs the United States will charge on imports from those countries was determined by calculating the level of tariffs and trade barriers those countries have in place on U.S.-made products, though it remains unclear how the White House arrived at those numbers.
Cambodia had the highest tariff rate of 49%, followed by a 46% tariff on goods coming to the United States from Vietnam. The European Union faces a 20% tariff, and China would have an additional tariff of 34%.
Trump released a country-by-country list of his reciprocal tariffs.NBC News
National Foreign Trade Council President Jake Colvin said in a statement after Trump’s announcement that consumers “should expect to see higher prices for everything from groceries to home renovations to auto insurance as construction and repair costs rise.”
“While the price of imported goods will undoubtedly rise, the president’s tariffs will also tack on added costs to American manufacturing, assembly and farming,” he said. “There is simply no way to mitigate all of the added costs of inputs to finished goods from the administration’s complex and growing web of tariffs.”
President Donald Trump holds a signed executive order after he spoke about reciprocal tariffs at the White House today.Saul Loeb / AFP – Getty Images
Economic experts are already bemoaning the vague and widespread nature of Trump’s new tariff policy, especially concerning the still-thawing U.S. housing market.
“If these tariffs were more targeted and on specific goods, I wouldn’t be so sure we would have stagflation,” Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said in a post on X. “But these appear to be extremely broad, so I expect higher inflation and lower or even negative economic growth.”
“Home construction was already going to be weak this year,” she continued. “But these tariffs (combined with labor problems from immigration policy) will mean fewer homes built.”
Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan who has been a critic of Trump’s tariffs plans, posted on X that the duties would equate to “a flat tax.”
“A huge hit to the budgets of working- and middle-class Americans,” he wrote.
Trump is basing the reciprocal tariff rates on how much other countries tax U.S. exports, “including currency manipulation and trade barriers.”
In its last report published November 2024, the U.S Treasury did not designate any countries as currency manipulators, let alone those published on the list shown by Trump in the Rose Garden. Even during Trump’s first administration, China was designated as a currency manipulator before being de-designated as one due to “enforceable commitments to refrain from competitive devaluation.”
It’s unclear how the White House translated “currency manipulation and trade barriers” into tariff rates, but the White House told reporters those numbers were calculated by the Council of Economic Advisors, headed by Stephen Miran.
Markets plunged in after-hours trading, as Trump held a poster up listing various tariff levels for U.S. trading partners.
The ETF (exchange-traded fund) that tracks the broad-based S&P 500 dropped more than 2.3% and the ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 plunged more than 3.1% in volatile trading. The Dow ETF also slid more than 420 points.
That will apply to countries that the administration has said has lower monetary and “nonmonetary” barriers than most of America’s largest trading partners.
But by including “nonmonetary” tariffs, Trump is charging new tariff rates of as much as 49% on other nations. That rate is being charged to Cambodia.
For China — 34%.
For India — 26%.
For the European Union — 20%
It was not immediately clear whether those tariffs would be applied on all products or targeted at products on which those countries levy tariffs against the U.S.
The president is going on an extended monologue touching on grievances, history and frustration, but has yet to divulge much about the new tariffs.
Trump said tit-for-tat tariffs would be coming to counter not just other countries’ tariffs but “nonmonetary” barriers like currency manipulation and “pollution havens.”
Trump’s speech is under way and he’s started off with some of his most assertive rhetoric.
Trump said it will be the day American industry “will be reborn,” touting a new “golden age of America.”
We’re just a few minutes away from Trump’s Rose Garden announcement, which was scheduled to start at 4 p.m. ET.
As the White House prepares to impose a tariff on all automobile imports, manufacturers are going on a messaging offensive to consumers.
Automotive News reports that German conglomerate Volkswagen of America is halting vehicle shipments from Mexico, which typically come by rail. In addition the German automaker plans to notify customers of the upcoming tariffs by placing an “import fee,” notice on its vehicles.
We’re probably closer to the beginning of this trade war than we are to the end of it, whether President Trump takes a more nuanced approach to his tariffs or makes a big, simple move.
That’s because of the resulting negotiation and retaliation, with other countries firing back. An all-out trade war between America and its allies could mean recessions for everybody. After a while, it could become a loop of retaliation, and it could just go on from there.
That would hurt U.S. producers and consumers, as well.
Most people might know the notorious Hawley-Smoot tariff best from a scene in “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off,” where a teacher attempts to explain the 1930 bill to a classroom of bored high school students.
“Did it work? Anyone?… Anyone know the effects?” the teacher asked. “It did not work, and the United States sank deeper into the Great Depression.”
The Senate’s webpage about the famous tariff references the scene to explain how the bill was “among the most catastrophic acts in congressional history.”
Economists say that history is pretty correct. In an attempt to collect more revenue for the government, the government started a trade war, said Maurice Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
“At the time, it was a huge shock to the system and led to a very destructive trade war between the U.S. and its trading partners, which helped deepen the Great Depression,” Obstfeld told NBC News in October. Since then, the U.S. has mostly promoted cooperative trade relations and largely strayed from tariffs and isolationist policy. That is, until Donald Trump’s first term in 2018, when he implemented tariffs on China and steel and aluminum.
Trump is scheduled to announce reciprocal tariffs at 4 p.m. ET today in the Rose Garden. That also happens to be when major stock markets close in the U.S.
Some economists surmise that might be because the administration fears investors’ negative reactions to tariff news.
“Tariffs are the centerpiece of the Trump administration’s economic program and they are so nervous about its market impact, they have to announce it after the markets have closed,” Lawrence Summers, an economist at Harvard University who has served as Treasury secretary and director of the National Economic Council, told Bloomberg TV. “It seems a bizarre strategy.”
Tariff uncertainty has rocked investor confidence. Markets took a dive in the first quarter of 2025, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq facing their worst three-month losses since 2022. On Sunday, Goldman Sachs raised its recession and inflation forecast and lowered its GDP outlook.
“We continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed,” the firm said.
Democrats are lining up to oppose Trump’s tariffs.
In an afternoon press conference, Sens. Chuck Schumer (N.Y.), Tim Kaine (Va.), Pete Welch (Vt.) and Angela Alsobrooks (Md.) argued the tariffs would harm American families and businesses.
Trump, Schumer said, wants to spark “an absurd, crazy, chaotic trade war” to raise revenues that would subsequently offset tax cuts Schumer said would primarily benefit billionaires.
“What kind of bubble is this man and his billionaire cohorts in?” Schumer said.
Kaine has introduced a bill to oppose across-the-board tariffs on Canada — and has received support for it from some moderate Republicans. However, it is unlikely to come up in the House, which has moved to block the ability of Congress to force a floor vote on the national emergency Trump has invoked to impose the Canadian duties.
Other Democrats weighed in today. Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif., called the tariffs “madness” in a post on X.
“In Congress, and as Mayor of Long Beach, I’ve seen firsthand how his senseless and unstable tariffs throw our trade and shipping infrastructures, like the Port of Long Beach, into chaos,” he wrote.
Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policy has created panic for smaller businesses grappling with the likelihood of added operational costs and potential supply chain bottlenecks.
“I’m going to run out of appliances,” said Robin Liss, founder of kitchen gadget company Suvie, ahead of her two-week trip to Taiwan and Vietnam to work out a new business plan. “I’ve got to figure this out.”
Trump slapped additional tariffs on China and is threatening to strain America’s relationships with other longtime trading partners.
Read the full CNBC story here.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% automobile tariffs are due to take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Thursday, according to a post in the Federal Register.
Trump’s 25% tariffs on auto parts are due to take effect no later than May 3, according to the Federal Register.
Ahead of Trump’s tariffs announcement, Wall Street traders are reducing the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in June — a sign they believe price growth could accelerate.
The probability that the Fed will hold its key federal funds rate at its current target range of 4.25% to 4.5% through its June meeting has now climbed to 35%, up from 24% just yesterday and 19% a month ago.
In other words, the traders now believe the Fed is more likely to keep lending activity at bay for longer, in order to contain inflation, by keeping borrowing rates higher.
However, is not clear whether the inflation concerns are in response to the tariffs themselves, which by definition will cause prices for goods to increase; or because the traders now believe the impact from the tariffs will not be as severe as feared, something that would cause economic activity to pick up and also put upward pressure prices.
Voters in Waunakee, Wisconsin, had tariffs top-of-mind on Tuesday as they lined up for the state’s Supreme Court election.
The race drew national attention as an early test of Donald Trump’s policy, which has prominently featured tariffs. Susan Crawford, who was backed by Democrats in the technically nonpartisan election, won with 55% of the vote.
Waunakee residents were conflicted about what tariffs would mean for American-made goods, but many admitted it could hit their wallets. Economists say that’s a justified concern, since tariff costs are generally passed along to consumers. Voter Lynn Cook said she just bought a new car for her family because she worried tariffs would make it more expensive.
“We were thinking of all the tariffs and everything, and how everything was going to go up,” she said.
Eric Bundy, who voted for Brad Schimel, the more conservative candidate, grew up in Pennsylvania and attributes factory closures there to free trade agreements. He’s willing to take a bit of a financial hit in the short term if it means bringing jobs back.
“I’m optimistic and I’m hopeful, he said, adding: “Yes, I will accept some, but obviously we all have our limits when it comes to our pocketbook.”
Others weren’t so sure the trade-off was worth it.
“I don’t know if the good is outweighing the harm that is being done,” said voter Andrew Dodge, who works in education. “I think we’re isolating ourselves as a country and not in a good way.”
The Trump administration is imposing 25% tariffs on beer and empty aluminum cans, according to a notice published today by the Commerce Department.
The notice said that the U.S. would begin collecting duties on the tariffs starting at 12:01 a.m. on Friday.
The move is part of a modification made to previously imposed tariffs by the Trump administration on aluminum imports.
Major stock indexes recovered Wednesday afternoon from earlier flat trading as investors awaited the final form of Trump’s tariffs announcement this afternoon.
The S&P 500 was up about 1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was 1.3% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.8%.
The trade war that U.S. President Donald Trump has escalated in his second term is a challenge for all Asian economies, large and small, in an era when the most populous region of the world is expected to drive global economic growth.
Export manufacturing and free trade helped transform China and other Asian countries into economic powerhouses over the past decades. Trump’s barrages of tariffs, aimed at compelling companies to keep or set up their factories in the United States, are rupturing trade agreements often made at great political cost to trading partners.
Despite some decrease in trade since Trump launched a trade war with China during his first term in office, the U.S. trade deficit has continued to climb, hitting $295.4 billion last year.
China, the world’s No. 2 economy, has leaned heavily on exports to make up for weak demand at home. The ruling Communist Party has made exports of autos, especially electric vehicles, and batteries a priority, but 27.5% tariffs on auto exports and 102.5% duties on EVs have in effect closed the U.S. market for its automakers. China is the second-largest supplier of auto parts to the U.S. behind Mexico.
During Trump’s first term, higher tariffs led leader Xi Jinping to champion a shift to high-tech production. That will likely continue as U.S. pressure intensifies, causing job losses due to changes in manufacturing rather than direct damage from the tariffs themselves, Raymond Yeung of ANZ Research said in a report.
As Trump has rolled out rounds of tariff hikes that have piled on an extra 20%, China has raised its own import duties, targeting U.S. farm goods. It also expanded export controls, especially on strategically important minerals used in high-tech electronics.
U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to China have fallen since the beginning of the year, and are expected to fall further after Beijing imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. LNG imports.
Some consumers are racing to dealerships in search of a fresh set of wheels to avoid expected price hikes from the Trump administration’s auto tariffs.
Several major automakers reported double-digit U.S. sales growth in the first quarter, but industry analysts say the momentum is likely to hit the brakes soon.
“Concern among consumers regarding the future of tariffs and the economy — a new economic uncertainty — is holding back the market,” Cox Automotive analysts wrote last week.
At a Honda dealership in Hempstead, N.Y., on Tuesday, shoppers said they were motivated to buy vehicles now to avoid paying more later.
“Before the storm actually drops, I want to get in and just get out,” said Floyd Wallace, who purchased a used 2019 Honda Pilot.
Dealership manager Ravel Mejia said uncertainty is running high, and he’s short on solid advice to offer customers who turn up asking about tariffs. But he expects he’ll have to pay more for his next shipment of vehicles after selling through his existing inventory over the coming month.
“It’s a little bit unsettling to come in tomorrow and not know what’s going to happen,” Mejia said.
Trump has said tariffs on pharmaceutical products imported into the U.S. were coming soon, but it is not clear if they will be announced at the White House event.
Those potential tariffs would likely drive up U.S. drug prices for patients because even if companies moved to produce those medications domestically, it would take years and cost more than producing medicines abroad, Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger said in a note last week.
Predicting the potential impact of tariffs on pharmaceutical companies is difficult since they have vast and complex manufacturing networks with multiple steps, sometimes in different geographies, TD Cowen analyst Steve Scala said in a note.
But Scala said Eli Lilly, Bristol Myers Squibb and AbbVie appear better positioned than others to weather tariffs because they have more major manufacturing plants in the U.S. than internationally.
The majority of their sites responsible for producing the active ingredients in drugs are also in the U.S., he added.
Meanwhile, Novartis and Roche “look more at risk” because they have few U.S. plants and a higher share of active ingredient sites that are international, Scala said.
Some tequila makers have been warning about how tariffs could hit their businesses, but Colorado-based Suerte Tequila said it won’t raise prices to offset tariffs.
“Tequila margins are stronger than ever,” said Laurence Spiewak, Suerte Tequila’s CEO.
Still, the industry could see a hit with tariffs on Mexico.
In 2024, the U.S. imported $5.2 billion worth of tequila and $93 million worth of mezcal from Mexico, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the U.S.
Trump administration officials have argued that the higher costs from tariffs are worth it for the increase in manufacturing jobs that would be created over the long-term.
“I’m less concerned about the short term,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters last month. “We’ve got strategic industries that we’ve got to have. We want to protect the American worker, and a lot of these trade deals haven’t been fair.”
Since Trump took office, several companies have said they will increase their manufacturing in the United States, though some of those plans were already underway before Trump was elected and others will take years to come to fruition.
But while tariffs could increase U.S. manufacturing for certain products, the jobs that are created could be offset by jobs lost in other areas that faced higher costs from the tariffs — which happened during Trump’s first term, according to a study by the Federal Reserve.
Bringing manufacturing to the United States can also increase the cost of production, because labor, regulatory and building costs are higher in the United States, which in turn could raise the prices of end products for consumers. If companies do bring production to the United States, the number of jobs could also be limited because manufacturing has become more automated. Auto plants or steel mills that once employed tens of thousands of workers now employ just several thousand.
Building manufacturing plants in the United States could get even more expensive as a result of the tariffs, because it would cost more to import the building materials, parts and equipment needed for the plants.
It could be nearly impossible to make other products, like shoes or T-shirts, in the United States at competitive prices because the United States doesn’t have the available labor or supply chains to make them on a large scale.
The Senate is expected to vote today on a resolution of disapproval on Trump’s tariffs on Canadian imports, led by Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., which could mark a significant rebuke to the president.
The measure, which would terminate the national emergency Trump used to pursue the tariffs, needs a simple majority of 51 votes to pass. The chamber is split between 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. If Democrats unify, then they need just four Republicans to pass it.
“Many of my Republican colleagues in Congress have already expressed concerns about these tariffs, so the Senate’s upcoming vote on our legislation provides senators with the perfect opportunity to show Americans that they will stand up for their constituents and reverse the President’s disastrous economic policies,” Kaine said.
Steel and aluminum industry groups have praised the Trump administration’s targeting of cheap imports from China. But they’re cautioning against doing the same to those from Canada, which is facing blanket 25% tariffs on all goods except energy products and potash, which the United States is set to tax at 10%.
Canada supplies over half of U.S. aluminum imports and about 20% of the nation’s imported steel. Foreign-made aluminum is especially crucial for downstream manufacturing, Charles Johnson, the CEO of the Aluminum Association, recently told NBC News.
“Without those import inputs, we won’t be able to continue to expand,” he said of the domestic industry.
Current U.S. smelting capacity simply doesn’t produce enough aluminum to meet the nation’s needs, Johnson added. “We need metal.”
The United Steelworkers labor union has also urged “a measured approach that both strengthens our manufacturing sector and accounts for our relationships with our allies, like Canada, who play by the rules,” the group said in a Feb. 10 statement.
Bill Oplinger, the CEO of Alcoa, which owns two of the four remaining aluminum smelters in the United States, said last month that he’s aligned with the administration’s desire to boost manufacturing jobs. But “the best way to do that,” he said, “is to be able to bring Canadian metal into the U.S. to support our downstream customer.”
Trump’s tariffs proposals have faced opposition from business groups, criticism from economists and resistance from consumers.
But they are receiving support from some key U.S. sectors.
Among the most enthusiastic supporters has been United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain. Though he endorsed Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, Fain issued a statement last week praising Trump’s plans to impose 25% tariffs on all autos and auto parts entering the U.S.
“The UAW has been clear: We will work with any politician, regardless of party, who is willing to reverse decades of working-class people going backwards in the most profitable times in our nation’s history,” he said. “These tariffs are a major step in the right direction for autoworkers and blue-collar communities across the country, and it is now on the automakers, from the Big Three to Volkswagen and beyond, to bring back good union jobs to the U.S.”
The head of the steel manufacturers’ association has also hailed Trump’s plan to impose 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports, writing in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette last month that the levies were “saving the American steel industry.”
And the Coalition for a Prosperous America, which represents certain domestic producers and workers, has long favored the use of tariffs to bolster U.S. industry.
“Those who warn of tariff problems exaggerate the price costs and ignore the positive effects that come from expanded domestic manufacturing,” CPA economist Andrew Eichenberg wrote recently. “That’s unfortunate because the overall goal should be to create good-paying jobs throughout the U.S. economy.”
He continued: “For too long, economists have ignored the real-world benefits of protecting and rebuilding America’s industry. Instead, they have exaggerated globalization’s ability to keep prices low. They’ve also disregarded the collateral damage from decades of rising imports — including millions of lost jobs and volatile inflation from overseas supply chain disruptions.”
With the White House offering only breadcrumbs in the hours leading up to Trump’s tariff announcement, uncertainty is weighing on both consumers and businesses.
At a Subaru dealership in Skokie, Illinois, the pace of sales over the past week has more than doubled as people rush in to buy cars before new tariffs go into effect, according to general manager Jeremy Gleason.
Meanwhile, in Pomona, New York, Stuart Leventhal, owner of the Down to Earth Living furniture store, is already ordering for Christmas but isn’t sure what it’s going to end up costing.
“Doesn’t that sound stupid?” Leventhal told NBC News. “It’s an uneasy time because there seems to be no certainty. No certainty with respect to what the costs of goods are, and no certainty as to where the policies are taking us.”
Tariffs raise the cost of doing business outside the United States. Yet even firms that manufacture in the United States can be affected, since many rely on foreign parts and materials as intermediate goods.
Whether consumers ultimately feel the impact of those higher costs can vary by industry and product.
Lots of negotiation occurs among a U.S. importer, an overseas producer and any middlemen before a tariff is collected, said Craig Fuller, CEO of FreightWaves, a supply-chain consultancy.
Some companies, including Target, Best Buy and Hyundai, have said they would pass some of the higher costs of the tariffs along to their customers. Walmart, meanwhile, has sought to pressure its Chinese suppliers to lower their costs in anticipation of the tariffs — and has been met with resistance.
Other companies, especially luxury-goods sellers, charge enormous markups on goods they import into the United States and may ultimately decide they can live with hits to already-high profit margins, Fuller said. Other firms that enjoy large market shares will also decide whether they will absorb higher costs to maintain their dominant positions.
Even for companies that absorb the cost of the tariffs and don’t raise prices, there will still be a cost. Those companies will have less money to invest in growing their businesses, which can have a negative impact on the labor market if it leads to laying off workers or not adding jobs.
Trump has downplayed any impact tariffs would have on prices. Asked about foreign automakers’ raising the price of their vehicles after he announced a 25% tariff on auto imports, Trump said: “I couldn’t care less. I hope they raise their prices, because if they do, people are going to buy American-made cars. We have plenty.”
After an initial burst higher in the wake of Trump’s election in November, stocks have shifted acutely downward as investors began to digest that Trump was planning to make good on significantly increasing trade duties.
It represents a stark contrast to the gains usually enjoyed by presidents shortly after taking office — including the ones Trump himself saw during his first term.
This time around, Trump has indicated he is less concerned about short-term market moves.
“If you look at China, they have a 100-year perspective,” Trump told Fox News last month. “We have a quarter. We go by quarters.”
Slovakia, the landlocked country east of Austria, could suffer the most from the new auto tariffs that Trump said will take effect Thursday.
“Germany’s car industry is in the eye of the storm and by far most exposed in terms of value, with major players like Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes, and Porsche likely getting hit by tariffs,” economists Inga Fechner and Rico Luman of Dutch bank ING said in a recent research note.
“But Slovakia — home to several car plants — is most exposed in terms of total US export volume,” they said.
The nation of 5.4 million people produces more cars per capita than any other country in the world. And the “Detroit of Europe” relies heavily on U.S. trade, with autos comprising a major chunk of its U.S. exports.
Reporting from the White House
The guest list for Trump’s Rose Garden tariffs announcement today will include “steel workers, autoworkers, oil and gas workers, steam fitters, truck drivers, and hardworking Americans from a variety of trades,” according to a senior White House official.
Consumer sentiment has dipped as people brace for possible price increases due to Trump’s tariffs.
Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt., said the tariff disagreements between Trump and Democrats go beyond typical party differences, calling it a “very, very serious situation.”
“We believe what President Trump is doing is, in many cases, lawless and really beyond any norms,” he said on CNBC’s Squawk Box.
Welch believes Congress has tariff authority that can be traced back to the Constitution.
Trump’s actions are an “overreach” in service of a personal agenda, he said.
“There’s a real abdication by Congress of its own authority.”
Trump and his top officials have given a variety of reasons and mixed messages for their plans to ratchet up the tariffs charged on goods coming into the country.
In Trump’s early weeks in office, he said he was using tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China to punish them for not doing more to stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States. Trump has also used tariffs as a negotiating tool to get concessions out of countries, like threatening Colombia with a tariff if it didn’t accept deportation flights of its citizens.
Trump has said the most recent tariffs are a form of retaliation against countries that put their own tariffs on U.S. goods. He has said the so-called retaliatory tariffs will give companies incentives to move manufacturing to the United States by punishing companies that produce their products overseas. He has also said tariffs are a way to raise revenue for the federal government and suggested tariffs could replace income taxes.
“I think it’s going to be something that’s going to bring a lot of wealth back to our country,” Trump said Monday.
Tariffs are fees U.S.-based companies pay the federal government when they import affected products into the United States. Since the money is collected by the government, it is considered a tax.
If a big-box retailer, for instance, is importing sneakers from China, it must pay a tariff to Customs and Border Protection officials at a port of entry before it can bring the shoes into the country to sell at its American stores. The same process applies to a manufacturer bringing in parts or raw materials to make a finished product at a U.S. plant or a food distributor importing fresh produce to sell to U.S. grocery stores.
The tariff is calculated as a percentage of the declared value of the good before it entered the United States, not its retail value. The money collected from tariffs goes to the Treasury Department, similar to tax revenue.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford, speaking this morning on CNBC, said he recently spoke to U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick about Trump’s looming tariffs.
“I spoke to him the other night and asked him, ‘What are we expecting April 2?’ and he said he wasn’t sure,” Ford said on CNBC. “Now I don’t know if he was blowing smoke or he really didn’t know what to expect. Maybe it’s the latter.”
Ford said the U.S. and Canada needed to “get rid of these tariffs and focus on our real enemies around the world.”
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond dropped to as low as 4.13% today as investors looked to safer assets ahead of the tariffs announcement.
Traders increase demand for bonds when they believe growth will slow — and analysts are increasingly warning that Trump’s tariffs will reduce economic output in the short term. When bond demand increases, yields drop.
Yields represent the annualized percentage payoff a trader can expect from owning the bond. The 10-year yield is closely watched because it serves as a benchmark for demand for other fixed-income assets in the rest of the economy. For instance, mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year yield.
Trump has been looking to bring the 10-year yield down to make it cheaper for businesses and consumers to borrow. Until recently, that’s been difficult to accomplish, as fears about stickier inflation — something tariffs would compound — have kept yields elevated.
Tariffs aren’t the only big business story for the Trump administration this week. The president will meet with Vice President JD Vance and other aides today to talk about a potential deal for the U.S. operations of the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok.
President Joe Biden signed a TikTok ban into law last year, citing national security concerns, but his administration refrained from enforcing it. Then, as Trump took office in January, he signed an order that extended a deal deadline until this weekend. He’s said he could extend the deadline yet again.
But Trump also said that he could tie TikTok negotiations to trade talks with China. A week ago, the president floated a potential “little reduction in tariffs” if China’s government agreed to a deal. China has so far been Trump’s biggest trade war target, layering 20% tariffs on top of already-active duties on the nation’s imports into the U.S.
Analysts for the financial services firm Wedbush Securities said it’s becoming “crystal clear this tariff/U.S policy will cause pure chaos to the global auto industry and will raise the prices of a typical car to a U.S. consumer by $5k to $10k out of the gates.”
“We stress that the concept of a US car maker with parts all from the US is a fictional tale that does not exist and would take years to make this concept a reality,” the analysts said in a note sent out this morning.
CEO confidence in the economy has been falling ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement.
Data shared by Apollo Global Management found that corporate leaders’ confidence in the economy has declined to levels not seen since 2012.
Torsten Slok, chief economist of investment giant Apollo, points out that chief financial officer confidence has also ticked down in recent months, both in terms of how they feel about their own companies and the national economy.
With a little more than an hour to go before U.S. markets open, major stock indexes are set to open lower.
Futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq were down 0.9%, while S&P 500 Futures were off 0.7%. Dow futures were lower by 0.5%.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq just finished their worst quarter in more than two years.
French Industry Minister Marc Ferracci said today that Europe would respond to Trump’s tariffs in a proportionate manner but would not escalate tensions under any circumstances.
“Europe has always been on the side of negotiation and calming things down, because trade wars, you know, only produce losers,” Ferracci told the French broadcaster RMC radio.
Japan’s government said today that it had expressed to “various levels” of the Trump administration that it should not unilaterally implement new tariffs against the country.
“We will carefully examine the details of these tariff measures and their potential impact on our nation while also continuing to strongly urge the U.S. to reconsider its actions,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters today, adding that Japan would continue to hold close consultations with the U.S.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told reporters a day earlier that his country would continue to examine the impact of U.S.-levied tariffs on domestic industries and employment.
“We will immediately set up special consultation offices in approximately 1,000 locations throughout Japan as a short-term response,” to the measures, he said, adding that these offices would aim to address the concerns and anxieties of small- and medium-sized businesses.
Much uncertainty remains about whether Trump’s promise to slap a 10% tariff on Canadian imports will include the natural gas and electricity that flow cross-border into some U.S. states and into households.
Combined with reciprocal tariffs, such duties could spike utility bills in those areas by as much as 20% — especially in the New England region, where many homes are heated by fuel oil — according to projections by the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, which represents state administrators of the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program.
Consumer advocates say the Trump administration has also made it more difficult for some households to shoulder such an increase by eliminating the staff responsible for managing LIHEAP in its purge of the Department of Health and Human Services.
“For those who are already struggling to cover their bills, the additional costs will be burdensome and many will have to make tough choices between paying for their home energy bill or paying for their medicine, food, and other essentials,” NEADA said in a release last week.
A self-prescribed deadline by a Hong Kong private conglomerate to sell off its two ports along the Panama Canal came to pass today, after Communist Party newspapers blasted the plan as undermining Beijing’s interest.
CK Hutchison, owned by tycoon Li Ka-shing, was expected to finalize “definitive documentation” which was to be signed on or before today, according to a joint March 4 announcement by the firm and the U.S. investment firm BlackRock, which would be taking over from the ports.
But the apparent delay came as Beijing’s market regulator last week announced it will review the port sales “to protect fair market competition and safeguard public interests.” The Beijing-controlled newspaper Ta Kung Pao and others also published several articles last month, criticizing the sale.
Trump has called the critical waterway, through which 15,000 ships transit each year, “vital” to national security and wrongfully claimed that China is “operating” the canal.
Mounting pressure resulted in the plans being hatched for the sale of the ports in a deal that would have seen CK Hutchison’s 90% interest in the Panama ports, and its 80% controlling interest in its 43 ports worldwide, except those in mainland China and Hong Kong, sold off to a U.S. consortium for $22.8 billion.
A number of congressional Republicans are publicly voicing concern over the potential for a prolonged trade war and its effect on American farmers as Trump prepares to announce a new wave of tariffs.
House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn Thompson, R-Pa., told NBC News that he has asked the White House to exempt certain goods that are important to the U.S. agricultural industry, such as fertilizer and peat moss.
“I’ve kind of pointed out the things that I’m hoping” will be excluded, he said. “I talk with anybody who will listen to me. … They’ve been really good about input.”
Thompson also said he hopes Congress won’t need to bail out farmers with an emergency aid package, as it did during the first Trump administration. But, he said, “we’ll be prepared to do that” again if needed.
Reporting from BAYOU LA BATRE, Ala.
It has been four months since Henry Barnes, the mayor of Bayou La Batre, a struggling fishing village in southern Alabama, wrote to Trump for help.
A flood of cheap imported shrimp is killing the local seafood market, he wrote, thanks to “low and non-existent tariffs.” He invited Trump, for whom he voted, to come visit Bayou La Batre, known as Alabama’s Seafood Capital.
But thus far he hasn’t heard back. “He’ll eventually get around to us,” said Barnes, a third-generation net-maker. “I mean, we’re just a small town.”
Asked what his recent message to automotive industry CEOs was and whether he had warned them against raising prices, Trump said: “The message is congratulations, if you make your car in the United States, you’re going to make a lot of money. If you don’t, you’re going to have to probably come to the United States, because if you make your car in the United States, there is no tariff.”
Pressed about whether he told CEOs not to raise prices, as The Wall Street Journal reported, Trump added: “No, I never said that. I couldn’t care less if they raise prices, because people are going to start buying American-made cars.”
Mexico has promised to retaliate, but President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has held frequent talks with Trump, has not yet imposed any tariffs. Sheinbaum said she wants to maintain “cool heads” as she seeks to avoid a trade war.
Canada imposed a 25% tariff on U.S. steel and aluminum products worth nearly $16 billion. It also hit back with 25% tariffs on U.S. computers, servers and sports equipment.
The European Union has promised to retaliate against U.S. beef, bourbon, peanut butter and denim products, but it delayed those tariffs until mid-April. The bloc’s top trade official said he was holding talks with the United States about avoiding tariffs. European capitals have been pushing to avoid an all-out trade war between the 27-nation union and the United States.
As the threat of tariffs looms large in capitals around the world, many trading partners have already retaliated or vowed to respond to Trump’s tariffs. China has imposed retaliatory tariffs as high as 15% on some U.S. agricultural products, such as chicken, wheat, soybeans, pork, fruits and dairy products.
Consumers’ economic pessimism is worsening as inflation stays hot and a series of new reports flash alarms before the White House expands its trade war.
In February — with much of Trump’s tariff agenda announced but not yet implemented — stubborn inflation collided with tepid spending, a closely watched federal report showed Friday. The data indicated many households are paring back on hotel stays and dining out to cover pricier groceries and health care.
The financial firm ING called the new numbers “ugly” and flagged ongoing stagflation risks, saying “we are moving in the wrong direction” as Trump’s trade war and spending cuts threaten to worsen things.
Wells Fargo analysts, who similarly warned of an “ugly” quarter ahead, said that if there’s one “silver lining” to the report, it’s that “income growth was broad and supported by decent wage gains.” But “to judge from consumers’ own reported inflation expectations, which have been rising, they are going to need the extra support,” they wrote. Consumers’ attitudes are indeed growing gloomier.
Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect March 12, triggering a wave of countermeasures from foreign governments. The temporary carveouts he granted Canada and Mexico for those metals and other products are set to expire today — when Trump is expected to unveil a vast new slate of tariffs on “all countries,” including “reciprocal” levies equalizing trade barriers around the world.
The European Commission said yesterday that it’s preparing to reintroduce the retaliatory duties it imposed during Trump’s first term as part of a broader series of levies on American products teed up for mid-April. Canada has already slapped 25% tariffs on various U.S. goods, including steel and aluminum.
Tariffs can give domestic business a short-term boost, economists say, but it gets more complicated once other countries retaliate — making it tough to game out the ultimate winners and losers in an ever-evolving global trade war.
Trump’s tariffs have been applied in an on-again, off-again way. So what tariffs are currently in effect? As of yesterday morning, a 25% tariff on goods not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal are in effect. A 10% tariff on goods from China, on top of various tariffs already imposed on Chinese goods, plus a 25% tariff on worldwide steel and aluminum imports are in place.
The United States has more than 200 trading partners and 12,500 different tariff categories, so, according to analysts at UBS, there could be up to 2.5 million tariff and country combinations.
Even before today’s announcement, the mere threat of the higher tariffs has caused business and consumer sentiment to plummet.
The most recent report from the Conference Board showed consumer expectations for the next 12 months plunged to a 12-year low, while talk of tariffs has exploded in recent corporate earnings calls. In parallel, stocks just had their worst quarter since the Covid pandemic.
