The San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Angels on May 12, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Angels vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
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My Angels vs Padres Prediction
- Angels vs Padres picks: Under 7.5 (-125) | Play to Under 7 (-112)
My Angels vs Padres best bet is Under 7.5 (-125). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Angels vs Padres Odds
Monday, May 12
9:40 p.m. ET
SDPA
Angels OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline+1.5
-120
7
-125o / 105u
+170
Padres OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline-1.5
+100
7
-125o / 105u
-210
Angels vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
LHP Yusei Kikuchi (LAA)StatRHP Michael King (SD)0-4W-L4-10.4fWAR (FanGraphs)1.23.83/4.79ERA /xERA2.22/2.844.60/4.47FIP / xFIP3.21/3.751.46WHIP0.9910.3%K-BB%19.1%40%GB%39.5%94Stuff+100107Location+104
Kenny Ducey’s Angels vs Padres Preview
Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview: Kikuchi Trending in Right Direction
Yusei Kikuchi may be reverting to his old ineffective self, but he’s now piecing together two encouraging outings. Yes, shutting down the Toronto Blue Jays — a team devoid of power — in his last outing wasn’t all that impressive, but it came on the heels of a good start against a strong Detroit Tigers lineup.
Kikuchi has now walked just two total batters in his last two starts with 11 strikeouts over 11 frames, something that’s of note given he had fallen into a brutal bout with control issues heading into the month of May. The left-hander is still sporting a poor 10.8% walk rate, but he’s at least trending in the right direction — and he’s also yielded just two homers in his past five starts after giving up four in his first three outings.
The veteran is still pitching to a large complement of fly balls next to a bad 41.6% hard-hit rate and 10.4% barrel rate. After some serious gains last year with the Houston Astros, his Expected Slugging has shot back up to .459, which would be near a career-worst. Power and patience would seem to be the name of the game against Kikuchi.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: King Hoping to Keep it Rolling
It’s hard to say many bad things about Michael King on the other side of this matchup, who’s comfortably taken on a starter’s workload since coming over from the Yankees a year ago. As he prepares for his ninth start of the season, he’s flaunting a solid .204 Expected Batting Average against him with a rather menacing 27% strikeout rate.
King has managed to maintain a league-average walk rate in the last two seasons, next to firmly above-average strikeout numbers. While he’s actually seen a large jump in hard-hit balls this season, his expected numbers have tumbled from already-favorable marks in 2024. He’s still pitching mainly fly balls, but he’s begun to throw his fastball less, which has resulted in easier contact for his defense to handle.
There’s one interesting wrinkle here that has gone predictably uncovered; the Padres rank last in infield defense by Outs Above Average and third-best in the outfield. King will be hoping to miss more bats and induce some fly balls against the Angels, who rank just 15th in fly-ball rate but sport the league’s highest strikeout rate.
Angels vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Angels are still leading the world in strikeout rate, and while they haven’t connected with many balls in the air, they’re still not exactly going off in the power department with a .155 Isolated Power in the last two weeks. They’ve got plenty of talent offensively, but to this point, their lack of contact has made these plate discipline numbers impossible to overcome.
L.A. is not only striking out at the highest clip but also has a dreadful 6.5% walk rate, which has only improved marginally in the last two weeks to 7.9%. We noted that patience and sustained contact — preferably on the ground — are the best ways to get to King, but it’s hard to fathom this offense putting together a consistent game given the matchup.
I could certainly see the Angels hitting a home run, or even two, off of King, but their lack of contact and patience will render any big blows they manage to land ineffective.
On the flip side, I am going to once again back Kikuchi — a pitcher I have long loved to fade — against a Padres offense which may be without Jackson Merrill. They’re already behind the proverbial 8-ball here; San Diego ranks eight spots lower in wRC+ to left-handers with weaker power numbers. Even with a slight uptick in walks, the platoon splits have been less than favorable and have also come with more strikeouts, and now, if one of San Diego’s best bats is missing in action, things could really become dicey.
I’m going to play the Under here despite the scary-low number.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-125)
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