Based on the commentary I have heard and read after the first weekend of the men’s NCAA tournament, fans have a lot of opinions on the state of the tournament — and the sport.
For some, the tournament has disappointed because there was not the chaos and bracket busting we have come to expect. For others, it is the canary in the coal mine of college basketball, and the portal and NIL are leading to the death of the mid-major and Cinderella.
And yes, the Sweet 16 is set, made up of teams from four conferences, all major conferences. There are seven SEC teams, four each from the Big Ten and Big 12, and one from the ACC. All four No. 1 seeds, three No. 2 seeds, two No. 3 seeds and three No. 4 seeds crowd the field.
But to all that discourse, I say: Nonsense. One data point does not make a trend.
We have had chalky NCAA tournaments before, well before NIL and the portal. Two years ago, Houston was in the American Athletic Conference, BYU was in the West Coast Conference and Arizona was in the Pac-12. Without recent expansion, we would be talking about 16 teams from seven conferences. If Maryland’s Derik Queen had missed his buzzer shot, we’d be talking about eight, including a mid-major.
The last time Ole Miss was in the Sweet 16 was 2001, and the last time BYU was in the Sweet 16 was 2011. Drake, McNeese, New Mexico, Colorado State, Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga all won first-round games. UC San Diego, a trendy upset pick, lost to Michigan by one possession, and Colorado State was that buzzer shot away from a Sweet 16 appearance.
Is that what we are basing the demise of the NCAA tournament upon? By the way, ratings are up, not down, for the regular season and for the NCAA tournament. And for the record — 15 of the Sweet 16 teams are rated in the top 25 of the KenPom.com ratings, with Arkansas bringing up the rear at No. 36. The highest-rated teams to lose in the second round were Gonzaga (No. 9), Iowa State (No. 11), Wisconsin (No. 12) and St. John’s (No. 14).
In my Selection Sunday article, in which I picked every single game of the tournament, here are my results so far:
First round: 23-9 with 15 of the Sweet 16 and all eight of the Elite Eight.
Second round: 12-4 with 12 of the Sweet 16, seven of the Elite Eight and all four of the Final Four.
The world still spins firmly upon its axis, and we are headed toward a great Sweet 16 and beyond.
South Region
1 Auburn Tigers
Tigers make the Final Four if: They defend and rebound at a high level. Auburn has the depth, ball security, perimeter shooting and free throw shooting to beat anybody. When Auburn is dialed in defensively, it has all of the elements of a national championship team.
Player to watch: Tahaad Pettiford. The lefty freshman guard has ridiculous skills and is a bucket-getter who can create for himself. Pettiford is a scoring guard with point guard skills, and he is not afraid of the moment. He gives added punch to one of the best backcourt quartets in the field.
Area of concern: Auburn has not played its best basketball in the past couple of weeks — yet it is still winning. With a renewed focus after several days at home, the Tigers can be truly special down the stretch.
5 Michigan Wolverines
Wolverines make the Final Four if: They take care of the ball. Michigan is very good on the defensive end and has the ability to beat just about anybody, but its turnover rate is the highest, by far, of the teams remaining in the field. Take care of the ball and Michigan has a chance.
Player to watch: Vlad Goldin. He’s a player, much as he was at Florida Atlantic. His team needs him on the floor to win. When Goldin remains in the game and out of foul difficulty, Michigan is a much better and more formidable team. There is no replacement for Goldin.
Area of concern: The opponent. Auburn is a difficult matchup for Michigan. The Tigers can switch, and they have the big bodies and athleticism to deal with Goldin and Danny Wolf.
6 Ole Miss Rebels
Rebels make the Final Four if: They rebound the ball with Michigan State and Auburn. Ole Miss does most everything well but is not spectacular in any one area of play. The one area where Ole Miss can be attacked is on the glass. If the Rebels can rebound and limit second-chance opportunities, they are more than capable of beating Michigan State.
Player to watch: Malik Dia. The former Vanderbilt and Belmont big guy is very skilled and can play outside and inside. He has had multiple 20-point games, including 23 points — and 15 rebounds — against Alabama. He will have to be a major contributor against Michigan State and beyond.
Area of concern: Rebounding has been a problem for Ole Miss all season — it ranked 15th in the SEC — and that will be especially important against Michigan State, an outstanding rebounding team.
2 Michigan State Spartans
Spartans make the Final Four if: They shoot the ball well. Michigan State has won 10 of its past 11 games but has not shot the ball well (46% overall, 103rd in NCAA). The Spartans are even worse from deep, shooting 31%. But they win because of their transition play, rebounding and attacking the basket.
Player to watch: Jaden Akins. The lefty senior is an outstanding guard who makes plays at both ends. Akins is coming off of an efficient 16-point effort against New Mexico; he needs to continue to play that way for Michigan State to reach yet another Final Four.
Area of concern: The Spartans still need to defend and get to the free throw line to win. Auburn has multiple perimeter shooters, and Michigan State needs to run them off of the 3-point line.
Midwest Region
1 Houston Cougars
Cougars make the Final Four if: The Cougars continue to run quality offense. They will always defend and rebound at a high level — that is the team Houston is under Kelvin Sampson, and what opponents expect and fear. The difference in this season’s team and the past few is offensive firepower and efficiency. Houston shoots 40% from deep as a team, which leads the nation. Although the Cougars are not a high-volume 3-point shooting team, they make the ones they take. Houston is legit. You might beat Houston, but it will take everything you have — and then some.
Player to watch: Milos Uzan. With L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp — who have combined for 187 3-point field goals — beside him, Uzan controls the Houston offense. He is a high-assist, low-error point guard who penetrates with change of pace and intelligence. His play is vital for Houston’s title hopes.
Area of concern: Houston is not a high-volume nor a deadeye free throw shooting team. The foul line will not be a detriment, but it will not be a weapon, either.
4 Purdue Boilermakers
Boilermakers make the Final Four if: They handle pressure without turning it over. Purdue is not a high-turnover team, but it is not immune to athleticism and pressure, which the Boilermakers will face from either Houston or Tennessee.
Player to watch: Trey Kaufman-Renn. Although an undersized post player, Kaufman-Renn is among the best low-post scorers in the country. With great footwork and a great understanding of angles, Kaufman-Renn scores in the post and in two-man games with Braden Smith.
Area of concern: Purdue can have problems with teams that have superior athleticism and length (which is a problem for most teams). Handling athletic pressure will be the key to winning.
3 Kentucky Wildcats
Wildcats make the Final Four if: They stay healthy and defend with force and intensity. Kentucky can score with anyone, and the offense can carry the Wildcats. But Kentucky needs consecutive stops to win at the highest level, and it must bring physicality in the games it will have to play to reach the Final Four. Kentucky has to have a “hit first” mentality — the Wildcats must be the hammer rather than the nail.
Player to watch: Amari Williams. The long, skilled big man from Drexel hails from Nottingham, England, and is among the best big man passers in the country. Kentucky can initiate offense from all over the floor thanks to Williams, and he has become a truly outstanding rebounder and rim protector.
Area of concern: Physicality. Kentucky beat Tennessee twice during the regular season because the Wildcats limited Tennessee from deep in one game, and the Vols took an ungodly volume of deep shots in the first game against an injured and depleted Wildcats team. Kentucky can expect to get the Vols’ best shot in this one. Beating Tennessee for a third time to reach the Elite Eight is not going to be easy.
2 Tennessee Volunteers
Volunteers make the Final Four if: The big guys produce. When Tennessee is at its best, it gets significant contributions from Igor Milicic Jr. and Felix Okpara. When those two are aggressive and looking to score, this team is a legit title contender.
Player to watch: Jordan Gainey. Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier are the Vols’ best players and most consistent producers. Lanier and Gainey spring themselves for shots off of Tennessee’s “floppy” action, and both are terrific cutters. Gainey was outstanding in the SEC tournament, and he needs to be that aggressive option alongside Lanier.
Area of concern: Will the Volunteers’ big guys provide scoring as well as freeing up Lanier and Gainey? When the bigs can hit buckets, Tennessee is the real deal.
East Region
1 Duke Blue Devils
Blue Devils make the Final Four if: They continue to be the best defensive team. Duke has tremendous size and length, and, while the Blue Devils do not force turnovers, they also do not give up open shots or second shots. Duke might be young in spots, but the Blue Devils play older than their years, and there are weapons at every position. Nobody has more talent or is playing any better right now than Duke.
Player to watch: Sion James. Cooper Flagg is Duke’s best player and the best player in the country. But James is Duke’s Swiss Army knife — a big, strong, athletic guard who presents as a linebacker. James is efficient, low-maintenance and a high-energy, winning player.
Area of concern: Duke hasn’t lived in close games, but the Blue Devils will certainly have a couple of those to win a title. How will the young Devils respond? For now, they seem confident — and rightfully so. This team is scary good.
4 Arizona Wildcats
Wildcats make the Final Four if: They continue to do the hard things well, and Caleb Love continues to balance his attack mentality with attacking with intelligence and not recklessness. Few players have had as many great moments in pressure situations as Love, especially against Duke.
Player to watch: Tobe Awaka. The Tennessee transfer is a great rebounder and strong interior presence. Duke’s size can bother him, but if he can stay out of foul trouble, Awaka can cause Duke problems as well.
Area of concern: Arizona has the chops to give Duke all it wants. But the Wildcats cannot be jump-shot-happy and must attack the run and get to the foul line.
6 BYU Cougars
Cougars make the Final Four if: They run offense with pace and take open opportunities without hesitation. Neither BYU nor Alabama will scare you with defense — both try to wear you down with pace, space, and efficient shooting and smart defense. BYU has to hunt great shots and limit opponents’ 3-point opportunities.
Player to watch: Egor Demin. The 6-8 freshman has size and unusual skill at the point guard position. He can be turnover prone, but he’s a playmaker; Demin can hit timely 3s without shooting a great percentage. When he is at his best, he’s a lottery pick.
Area of concern: BYU is not a consistently good defensive team. At times, the Cougars want to simply outscore you, without regard to getting stops to separate from an opponent. But BYU is crazy dangerous.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
Crimson Tide make the Final Four if: They are physical and defend as resolutely as they look to score. Alabama plays with relentless pace and leads the nation in scoring. Alabama is a driving team that sprays it for open 3-point shots and is among the most efficient 2-point-scoring teams in the country. If you want to slow down Alabama, you need to guard the ball and keep the Tide out of the paint.
Player to watch: Grant Nelson. Nobody on the Alabama roster plays harder than Nelson. He and Mouhamed Dioubate lead the Tide in “hard hat” points for doing the dirty work, and Nelson is the top rebounder and shot blocker. Nelson is a driver and must be kept out of the lane,
Area of concern: Mark Sears is very effective for Alabama and is not to be overlooked. But Sears is just 5-for-35 from deep over his past six games. For Alabama to beat anybody, he needs to hit shots.
West Region
1 Florida Gators
Gators make the Final Four if: They continue to defend at a high level. Florida has great depth, and the Gators can wear you down over the course of 40 minutes. The difference between last season and this season is defense. Florida protects the lane and the rim, and Will Richard and Alijah Martin are great steals guys: Martin, the team’s best on-ball defender, gets his steals on the ball; Richard is the team’s best help defender and gets his steals off the ball.
Player to watch: Walter Clayton Jr. UConn had the Gators beat and was headed toward a second-round upset. But Clayton put the cape on and would not let Florida lose. He was unflappable, and when Florida needed a bucket, Clayton manufactured it and left your jaw on the floor.
Area of concern: At this point, it’s hard to find one. Florida has proved it can win against almost any style of play. The Gators are 17-2 since the middle of January and have won eight straight. They have not lost a game outside of SEC play.
4 Maryland Terrapins
Terps make the Final Four if: They execute down the stretch. Maryland has lost eight games, all by six or fewer points. The Terps have had a chance to win every game, and they will have a chance to win against Florida. But it will require precise execution against a great team with more size and depth.
Player to watch: Derik Queen. The freshman big man is the most talented player on the Maryland roster. With great hands and a ballerina’s feet, Queen will have to battle against Florida’s quartet of big-time big men. He will have to be at his best and stay away from cheap fouls that can take him out of the game.
Area of concern: Does Maryland have the depth to take out Florida? That might be the biggest challenge against a team with multiple weapons.
10 Arkansas Razorbacks
Razorbacks make the Final Four if: They keep getting out in transition, driving the ball and getting into the lane, and keep getting to the foul line. Arkansas is not a great shooting team and is still playing short-handed without Adou Thiero. So far, the Razorbacks have overcome that by getting to the rim and living at the foul line.
Player to watch: D.J. Wagner. The sophomore point guard and Kentucky transfer has been terrific since Arkansas lost Boogie Fland and Thiero. Wagner is right-handed, yet more dangerous driving and finishing left. Wagner has been Arkansas’ engine at the point of attack.
Area of concern: It might not be a concern, but Johnell Davis took heavy criticism early in the season when he looked a bit lost. Since then, he has found his place and has scored in double figures in nine of the past 10 games. Davis has Final Four experience and needs to provide scoring and an attack mentality for this team.
3 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Red Raiders make the Final Four if: They continue to run quality offense, meaning the Red Raiders’ offense can help its defense. Texas Tech is a high-volume 3-point-shooting team that takes good care of the ball. With JT Toppin, the Red Raiders have a go-to, on-demand scorer who is averaging more than 21 points over his past six games. Texas Tech is not a great defensive team, but running a good offense can significantly help the defensive effort.
Player to watch: Elijah Hawkins. The 5-11 senior transfer from Minnesota is one of the nation’s best passers and has an assist rate among the top five of remaining players in the field. Hawkins is averaging over eight assists in his past four games.
Area of concern: Sharpshooter Chance McMillian has not played since the Baylor game in the Big 12 tournament. If he cannot play against Arkansas, that leaves more than 14 points per game and a floor spacing shooter out of Texas Tech’s offensive equation.
