Let’s establish the obvious disclosure up front — when it comes to picking NCAA tournament champions in your bracket, the chalky teams are usually your friends, despite the moniker of “March Madness” for this whole thing. A No. 1 seed has won the NCAA men’s tournament in six of the past seven years. Overdog UConn crushed the field last year, winning six straight games by 14 points or more. Your heart wants underdogs, your head can’t look away from favorites.
Alas, some highly ranked teams won’t survive as long as we like, and we have to audit the top seeds and see where the weaknesses might lie. Today’s assignment is to identify the most vulnerable No. 1, 2, 3 and 4 seed that could have trouble advancing to the Sweet 16.
Note: All team stats courtesy of the indispensable KenPom.com.
One of the common advantages of better teams is getting to the line more often. It’s a stat you heard cited in the heyday of Bob Knight — the Hoosiers would make more free throws than the opponents would attempt. Maybe it’s smart defense, maybe it’s the constant lawyering of a coach, maybe it’s wearing down the opposing defense … it’s something. A special sauce so many strong teams share.
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The Cougars are a legitimate No. 1 seed, but they don’t own the free throw line. When it comes to their charity attempts against field-goal attempts, they stand a shocking 317th in the country. Houston is also outside the top 100 in free throw percentage (though it’s a very good 3-point shooting team).
Even if that angle doesn’t move you, perhaps the lay of the bracket will. Houston could face Gonzaga in the second round, which stands an impressive ninth in the KenPom efficiency ranks. Think about that for a second — the Zags are a No. 8 seed but are ninth on the stat page. The other No. 8 seeds check in at 23rd (Louisville), 32nd (Mississippi State) and 35th (Connecticut). While Houston, which a whopping 46.1% of Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem users picked to reach the Final Four, has routinely made the second weekend in recent years (five straight seasons), Gonzaga has punched the second-weekend ticket in nine straight tournaments. Something’s gotta give.
Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars could have trouble getting past Gonzaga if the two teams meet in Round 2 of the men’s NCAA tournament. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
Yes, this is a Rick Barnes tweet. It’s impossible to escape how underachieving his teams have been in March. Barnes has only been to one Final Four despite a 38-year coaching career tied to some excellent talent, and his overall mark in the dance is an ordinary 28-26.
College basketball is undeniably a coach’s game, and Barnes has trouble when the lights are brightest. He’s 11-23 against the tournament spread over the last two decades, the least profitable coach to get behind. Sure, in your NCAA pool, we’re picking teams to win, not cover. But several of those losses were Barnes’ teams underachieving and/or losing outright. And remember, this is a coach who merely grabbed a No. 5 seed (and only one NCAA tournament win) back when he had Kevin Durant and three other NBA-bound players at Texas.
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The 2025 Volunteers are an experienced group and they play excellent defense all over the court, especially behind the arc. Tennessee games are routinely rock fights (its tempo is almost as slow as Houston’s), and that doesn’t have to be a pejorative term. But Tennessee doesn’t get a lot of production from its bench, and it’s an ordinary team shooting the three and converting at the line. UCLA’s Mick Cronin could easily outfox Barnes in the second round, and if it comes to a third-round game against Kentucky, note the Wildcats swept Tennessee this year.
You’ll note that my No. 1 and No 2 picks are both from the Midwest region. Perhaps that’s a good place to let your hair down with your regional champion, while you’re likely using No. 1 or No. 2 seeds elsewhere.
Please don’t tell Wisconsin buddy and Yahoo Sports colleague Frank Schwab that I wrote this. The Badgers played excellent ball in a run to the Big Ten Tournament final, but that also meant four games in four days; often I think premier programs are better off not going deep in their conference tournaments. Now it’s a quick turnaround to Denver, where the Badgers have to play at altitude. And if Wisconsin draws BYU in the second round, that’s an opponent used to playing far above sea level, a sneaky advantage. Underdogs won’t be intimidated by the Badgers, who don’t turn opponents over very often (331rd in turnover rate) and rarely reject a shot (332nd in block percentage). Every underdog they face will feel live to me.
The South region immediately grabbed my attention when the brackets were announced Sunday night, especially the pod with the 4, 5, 12 and 13 seeds. I think Michigan and Texas A&M are both vulnerable in their first games (against UC San Diego and Yale, respectively), and I’d be surprised if the Aggies lasted to the second week.
The Aggies don’t shoot the ball especially well (317th in effective field-goal percentage) but they play volleyball on the offensive boards — No. 1 in offensive rebound rate. Yale is an outstanding 3-point shooting team (ninth in percentage behind the arc), takes care of the defensive glass (22nd in limiting offensive rebounding, critical for this draw) and rarely gives the ball away (19th in turnover rate).
Obviously we have to acknowledge the difference in the conferences — Yale played an Ivy League schedule while Texas A&M went through the SEC grinder. But let’s not forget the Aggies finished the year on a 2-5 skid, and their season began with a surprising loss at UCF. Meanwhile, Yale upset Auburn just last year, although Danny Wolf is no longer in New Haven. I’m a fan of Texas A&M coach Buzz Williams, but I won’t have his squad in my second-week plans.
