So far, March hasn’t been mad at all.
The underdogs have underachieved. The longshots have misfired. The giant killers have been swatted aside.
Top-four seeds clinched a perfect 16-0 record in the first round of the men’s NCAA tournament this year when Michigan State routed Bryant late Friday night. This is only the sixth time that’s happened since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams, joining 1994, 2000, 2004, 2007 and most recently 2017.
The average margin of victory for top-four seeds on Thursday and Friday was a ridiculous 22.6 points. More than half the No. 13, 14, 15 and 16 seeds in the field lost by 20-plus points. None came within closer than nine points of pulling an upset.
Norfolk State coach Robert Jones insisted he was “angry” oddsmakers anointed his team a 28.5-point underdog against top-seeded Florida. The Spartans trailed by as many as 32 points before halftime.
No team lower than a No. 5 seed lost in the first round of the NCAA men’s tournament. Duke blew out Mount St. Mary’s by 44 points. (Photo by Grant Halverson/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)
Akron guard Seth Wilson emphasized that the Zips would play with “no fear” against Arizona because they “can compete with anybody.” The fourth-seeded Wildcats cruised to a 28-point victory.
High Point, Yale and Grand Canyon were each popular 13-versus-4 upset picks. None led after the opening 10 minutes.
That college basketball’s top tier has been dominant is not a total shock to those who pay close attention to predictive metrics. Based on pre-NCAA tournament adjusted efficiency margins, the 2025 NCAA tournament has maybe the strongest quartet of No. 1 seeds in recent history. That same metric suggested that the gap between teams seeded on the top four lines and teams seeded 13 or worse was among the largest ever.
Why have this year’s top-four seeds been so dominant? The knee-jerk answer is to point to college basketball’s changing landscape.
The proliferation of NIL money and the lack of penalty for transferring are funneling mid-major stars to high-major programs. Last offseason, the most coveted transfers were receiving pay-to-play NIL deals in the high six figures and low seven figures. The money flying around this spring could be even more lucrative.
There’s also the fact that most mid-majors don’t have the advantage of being older than high-majors anymore. With the exception of Duke, high-majors are building around upperclassmen and grad transfers far more than one-and-done freshmen.
And yet blaming the changing landscape ignores that the transfer portal works both ways. There’s no shortage of mid-major programs who have benefited by identifying high-major talent in search of more playing time or a fresh start.
Scan Will Wade’s roster at McNeese to see how an opportunistic mid-major can flourish under the current rules. The Cowboys’ two leading scorers in their upset victory over Clemson on Thursday were transfers from Syracuse and Ole Miss, respectively.
The truth is we don’t know why college basketball’s upper echelon has been dominant during the regular season and so far in the NCAA tournament.
It might be a one-year blip. It might be the start of a trend.
All we know for sure is the impact it’s had so far on this NCAA tournament: March Madness has been March Mehness.
Half the remaining teams in the field are from the Big Ten or the SEC. Ten more are from the remaining power conferences.
Let’s hope a dull first round gives way to fireworks over the weekend.
