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We may be on the verge of an all-time Sweet 16 after the first weekend of March Madness was rather chalky. All four of the No. 1 seeds are still alive. John Calipari and No. 10 seed Arkansas, who built one of the most expensive rosters in college basketball, are suddenly wearing the Cinderella slipper!? What a time to be alive.
Heavyweight tilts with do-or-die ramifications await in the Sweet 16.
Let’s dive into the X’s and O’s for all eight games and, of course, our predictions.
South Region
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 5 Michigan
Oh, this one is the good stuff. Michigan guard Tre Donaldson, an Auburn transfer, gets to lace ’em up against his old ballclub with the right to go to the Elite Eight on the line. He’s going to be tuned up and itching to put his fingerprints all over this one.
The Twin Towers battle of Auburn’s Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell against Michigan’s Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf is going to draw most of the mainstream attention. Michigan simply cannot afford Goldin to get in foul trouble because its defense drops off the map when he sits against top-100 teams.
Conversely, finding ways to score consistently against this Auburn defense will be really hard for Michigan. The Tigers do a phenomenal job of blanketing the 3-point stripe and forcing guards to create something out of nothing. That’s not been a strength of Michigan’s backcourt all year. Auburn has the bodies to throw at Wolf and Goldin, and it will dare Michigan to beat it with a ton of 2s.
The backcourt should tilt the scales toward Auburn here. The Tigers can find ways to score even on nights when Broome isn’t effective. Tahaad Pettiford needs to have a big night against a mostly passive Michigan defense, and Chad Baker-Mazara needs to pick his spots effectively, too.
Michigan’s guards have struggled to make jumpers all year. Auburn’s have not.
The pick: Auburn
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Michigan State
This is a bit of an awkward matchup for both sides because Ole Miss basically forces every team to go small. The Rebels can spread teams out when Chris Beard pivots to his small-ball lineup of Sean Pedulla, JuJu Murray, Matthew Murrell, Dre Davis and Jaemyn Brakefield. For the most part this year, teams have been scared to go small against Michigan State because of how good the Spartans are on the glass. Ole Miss’ resolve on the glass will be tested in a real way, but Beard should have a great plan in place.
MSU wants to pressure the ball, turn you over and fly like bats out of hell. Ole Miss plays multiple point guards at all times (Pedulla and Murray), values the ball at a high level and has cleaned up its transition defense in a major way after some troubles in conference play.
Ole Miss’ scheme versatility defensively is another major X-Factor here. Ole Miss will throw a ton of different pick-and-roll coverages against Michigan State. It will switch everything. It will hard hedge. It will mix in some drop coverage when Malik Dia is on the floor. It’s all a way to disguise the lack of size and interior defense.
Michigan State will need a big day out of Jaxon Kohler. He has to be the switch-everything killer who abuses the mismatches when they pop up. The Spartans will also get some open looks from 3-point range in this one against the no-middle defense. Tre Holloman, Jaden Akins and Jase Richardson can’t let Ole Miss off the hook when it tries to swarm the ball. The whistle will also be a massive factor in this one. If Michigan State is waltzing to the free throw line for 20 attempts, it is heading to the Elite Eight.
The pick: Ole Miss
West Region
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 4 Maryland
Florida ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency, but it had lots of trouble maintaining its integrity against UConn’s layered, off-ball actions. There were busted switches galore in the Round of 32. Those breakdowns will get you beat in the Sweet 16. Thankfully for the Gators, Maryland doesn’t run quite as intricate of an offensive scheme. The Terps rely on a ton of transition, plenty of pick and rolls, top-of-the-key isos for Derik Queen and a bevy of post-ups for Julian Reese.
Maryland’s personnel is better than UConn’s, but this scheme is more straightforward and a tad easier to guard.
Rebounding and transition defense are tied together and will be massive indicators on the victor. Both teams should be able to uncork some valuable transition 3s off. It’s a make-or-miss game at that point.
In the halfcourt, it will be way more about winning on one-on-one matchups than just scheming up buckets. On paper, Florida and Maryland match up very evenly. Florida will play a double-big lineup to throw at Queen and Reese and rotate the big men evenly. Queen has to be so dialed in because Florida’s bigs run the floor hard every single time and will be rested. They chase offensive rebounds every single time. Queen is the best big man on the floor, but when he gets tired, he can be a bit of a turnstile defensively. Florida is going to look to take advantage of those moments when fatigue comes into play with its fresh bodies.
The difference in the game could be Maryland’s inability to take away No. 1 options. It’s a recurring trend that’s popped up for well over a month. Colorado State’s Nique Clifford delivered 21 points and six dimes in the Round of 32. Grand Canyon’s Tyon Grant-Foster had 23 points in the first-round game. Walter Clayton Jr. is one of the elite closers in college basketball, but Florida needs him raring to go from the jump. He could have a huge day against Maryland’s steady dose of drop coverage. The Terps coax a ton of off-the-dribble jumpers, but that’s Clayton’s game to a T. He’s up to 49% on pull-up 2s and 37% on pull-up 3s.
The pick: Florida
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 Arkansas
Arkansas deserves all the credit in the world for knocking off Kansas and St. John’s on its way to the Sweet 16. The Razorbacks are also getting healthier with Adou Thiero expected to be back in the mix. Talent-wise, Arkansas is not an underdog and the Hogs are bigger at all five positions. But this a brutal matchup, on paper. Kansas’ halfcourt offense ranked outside the top 130. St. John’s was outside the top 200 (!). Texas Tech is a completely different animal with a halfcourt offense that’s hovered around the top-20 all year. That’s scary for an Arkansas offense that can go AWOL for stretches.
These Red Raiders are elite because they have answers to the test at all three levels without turning it over. Arkansas beat Kansas because it forced 16 turnovers. Texas Tech hasn’t turned it over more than 10 times in a game for well over a month. Arkansas beat St. John’s, largely because the Johnnies can’t shoot (2-for-22 from 3-point range). Texas Tech has made double-digit treys in 21 games this year.
Arkansas is a very good defense, but it needs to play its best game of the year. Do not be surprised if Texas Tech tries to use Darrion Williams as a Boogie Fland hunter the moment he steps on the floor. Williams is an elite isolation scorer. Texas Tech will use a flurry of inverted screens to try and get Fland matched up with Williams before playing out of it. Arkansas can’t let that happen.
Arkansas will need to duplicate the Arizona recipe to beat Texas Tech. Overall, Texas Tech is terrific at limiting attempts in transition this year, but Arizona (who is big at all five positions just like Arkansas) was able to score 32 combined fastbreak points in its last two wins over Texas Tech. Arizona also lived in the paint and at the line. Arkansas cannot bail Texas Tech out with ill-timed jumpers. If Chance McMillian is still sidelined with an upper-body injury, Arkansas is a live dog. But I think Texas Tech’s layered elite halfcourt offense is the difference-maker.
The pick: Texas Tech
East Region
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Arizona
Arizona is a completely different team (for the better) than when these teams faced off in late November, but Duke might be better, too. This one will be ultra-physical with athleticism all over the place.
The pace is the trump card here. Duke is one of the best teams in the sport at limiting transition opportunities. Historically, slowing the game down is the better way to try and muzzle an Arizona transition offense that’s been elite for years.
Arizona is just 2-5 in games with 66 possessions or fewer this season. The first Duke-Arizona clash finished at 67 possessions. If Duke can keep this game from getting into the 70-possession range, it should be in decent shape.
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This game could be tougher for Duke than the Elite Eight because Arizona’s personnel is so terrific defensively. Duke’s bully-ball perimeter size isn’t going to work against KJ Lewis, Caleb Love, Jaden Bradley and the rest of Arizona’s enormous eight-man rotation. Plus, Henri Veesaar’s emergence as a real stretch 5 should pull Khaman Maluach away from the rim.
But in a low-possession halfcourt game, I think Duke finds enough answers to sweatily advance. It has more shooting and a star in Cooper Flagg who should be able to outlast the surging Caleb Love.
The pick: Duke
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 2 Alabama
In the last month, Alabama has the fifth-highest net rating. BYU is 10th. These are two of the best teams in the country and that’s not hyperbole. The offensive schemes, execution and coaching is all NBA-type stuff.
This will be glorious hoops.
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I’m leaning toward Alabama and here’s why. Alabama quietly has a top-30 defense since Feb. 1. BYU’s ranks outside the top-65 nationally during that 15-game sample size. To beat Alabama, you have to be elite at the point of attack to limit paint touches. Alabama is at its best when it plays fast, sprays the ball around and gets defenses in rotation. BYU has length on the perimeter with Trevin Knell (6-5), Egor Demin (6-9), Richie Saunders (6-5) and Mawot Mag (6-7). But Alabama’s lightning-quick guards could give BYU fits. BYU’s struggles to defend ball screens has been well-documented. That could be exacerbated by this elite Alabama pick-and-roll.
The one area that you can hunt Alabama is with post-ups, but that’s not necessarily BYU’s game. It could try it when Fousseyni Traore is on the floor, but BYU’s defense is 10 points per 100 possessions worse when he’s on the floor.
BYU also has a ton of similarities with Kentucky who Alabama handled three times this year.
The pick: Alabama
Midwest Region
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 4 Purdue
Aggressive, athletic defenses have been a kryptonite at times for Purdue’s buzzsaw offense this year. That did not hold up against McNeese in the Round of 32, but it could rear its ugly head against Houston. The Cougars have an outstanding defensive scheme and elite personnel with JoJo Tugler on the backline and Milos Uzan on the perimeter. They will be more than ready to hound All-American point guard Braden Smith.
Trey Kaufman-Renn, the playmaker, looms large in this one. You need bigs who can pass and shooters who can shoot (duh) to knock off Houston’s trapping defense. Kaufman-Renn’s decision-making in the middle of the floor is the way for Purdue to stay alive in this matchup. He has to knock down his patented little runner/push shot or find open shooters quickly before Houston’s swarming defense can recover.
Uzan is not Houston’s leading scorer, but he is the best player on the floor. Purdue has to turn his water off and not let him get cooking. Purdue’s pick-and-roll defense has been much-improved for stretches this year. Matt Painter always has different wrinkles and adjustments he can throw out to slow a defense down.
But Houston feels inevitable. Its guards are so tough. This defensive scheme is outrageously good. Houston has lost one game since November. It isn’t slowing down now.
The pick: Houston
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Kentucky beat Tennessee twice this year, and it also happened to be the only two times Rick Barnes’ club allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or better from downtown. The same opponent making half its 3s twice had never happened before in Barnes’ 10-year run atop the Tennessee program.
Surely, that won’t happen a third (!) time for one of the elite 3-point defenses in college basketball, right? Tennessee is going to be up in Kentucky’s shorts for 40 minutes. Nothing will come easy in the halfcourt, and the Vols might make Andrew Carr and Amari Williams try to beat them with backdowns or top-of-the-key drives.
This one may be decided on the other end. Kentucky’s defense is playing way, way better now that Lamont Butler, Otega Oweh, Carr and Williams are finally able to establish some defensive chemistry, but Tennessee has quietly found extra buttons to press offensively. Chaz Lanier is getting better and better at creating extra offense. Zakai Zeigler is quietly shooting 43% from downtown since Feb. 1. Jordan Gainey rises to the occasion often in big games. Kentucky has switchable bigs, but Zeigler, Gainey and Lanier are tough covers.
Tennessee dominated Kentucky on the glass twice. Kentucky shot 50% from downtown twice. I know which of the two is more repeatable.
The pick: Tennessee
