Mar 30, 2025, 10:07 AM ET
The 2025 men’s NCAA tournament continues Sunday with the Elite 8 and things are only getting more exciting.
So which point spreads and over/unders are worth betting on? And what else stands out from a bettor’s perspective?
Let’s factor in team trends, injuries, momentum and more to identify the smartest wagers to make over the weekend.
Odds are accurate as of publication time. For the latest odds, go to ESPN BET.
Sunday’s games
No. 1 Houston Cougars at No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers, 2:20 p.m. ET
Bet: Over 122.5
While the Cougars and Vols are two of the slowest paced teams in the country and each have exceptional defenses, with Houston leading the country in fewest points per possession allowed, both teams also have underrated sharp shooters. Houston entered the Sweet 16 leading the country in 3-point shooting with L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp combining for 28.1 points per game. Both also shoot at least 42.3% from 3-point range and over 88.6% at the free throw line. Tennessee point guard Zakai Zeigler has the most assists per game (7.5) of any player remaining in the NCAA tournament, as well as an 18.1 point per game scorer in Chaz Lanier. This game figures to be close, and when you factor in these great shooters and the prospect of late fouling causing a barrage of points at the end, this has the makings of a higher scoring game than expected.
No. 1 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans, 5:05 p.m. ET
Bet: Michigan State +5.5
While Michigan State may not have one big man as dominant as Johni Broome, the team as a whole has a higher rebound percentage than Auburn. The Spartans’ team-oriented approach also makes them one of the toughest defenses in the country along the perimeter, ranking first in the nation in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 27.8%. With Jase Richardson‘s emergence for Michigan State, scoring at least 15 points in six of the past seven games, it will keep Michigan State close and might even be enough to steal this game in SEC country.
Saturday in review
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders, 6:09 p.m. ET
Bet: Under 156.5
Texas Tech came back from down 13 points against Arkansas with less than five minutes remaining in regulation, winning an instant classic in overtime, which may leave them with less in the tank for Saturday. The Red Raiders were also without Chance McMillian again on Thursday, who is their top 3-point shooter, averaging 14.2 points per game on 43.4% 3-point shooting this season. He is expected to either be out again on Saturday or quite limited. Florida is not allowing any clean looks, ranking 15th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage and fifth in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. With Texas Tech’s rotation thin due to the McMillian injury, it should lead to a slower game and fewer scoring opportunities.
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide, 8:49 p.m. ET
Bet: Under 174.5 (Cashed)
While Alabama leads the country in total possessions per game, Duke entered the Sweet 16 ranked No. 280 in possessions per game and third in the country in points per possession allowed. Alabama’s 25 made 3-point shots on Thursday were the most in tournament history with Mark Sears going 10-of-16 from long range after shooting a cool 5-of-35 on 3-point shots in the previous six games. With Duke ranked 36th in the nation in opponent’s 3-point shooting percentage (31%) and Alabama 13th in the same category, allowing opponents to shoot only 30.1% from distance, both teams should see a decline from their massive offensive outputs on Thursday.
