Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
One of the chalkiest NCAA Tournaments in history has reached its logical conclusion: All four No. 1 seeds are headed to the Final Four for the first time since 2008. That tournament gave us an all-timer of a championship, with Mario Chalmers’ miracle sending the title game to overtime as part of a Kansas victory over Memphis. And just like this Final Four, that tournament ended in San Antonio.
The burning question for this year, though: Will having these four superpowers actually lead to great games akin to that classic? Only one of the Elite Eight’s four games had much drama down the stretch, and Duke’s demolition of nearly every challenger could mean the Blue Devils end up blitzing their way through the last two games like UConn did last season.
Their Final Four opponent, Houston, is not an easy team to blow out, though. In fact, the Cougars have not lost by more than five points all season (and three of their four losses were in overtime). Plus, Houston has the added incentive of exacting revenge for an NCAA Tournament loss to Duke just one year ago in the Sweet 16. And on the other side, Auburn has revenge on its mind, as well: The Tigers lost to Florida and Duke this season.
Below, our final power rankings of the last teams standing, along with one reason for optimism for each of the four heavyweights as they descend on San Antonio.
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Duke brought Alabama’s freight train offense to a screeching halt on Saturday night in Newark. The Blue Devils had the Tide’s prolific offense to just 0.89 points per possession, the Tide’s second-worst performance of the season. Duke also thrashed Alabama on the glass, 41-30, with Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach each tallying nine boards. Jon Scheyer’s team is a juggernaut on both ends of the floor, but Houston – whom Duke beat in the Sweet 16 last season after the Cougars’ Jamal Shead suffered an ankle injury – could provide a stiff test with its physicality and elite defense.
Biggest reasons for optimism: Duke is the best team and has a generational player. Pretty solid reasons to get excited! The Blue Devils have the second-highest efficiency margin in the history of KenPom data (which runs back to 1997), and they can overwhelm opponents with elite units on both offense and defense.
Texas Tech was the better team for 37 minutes on Saturday, but late in the game, Thomas Haugh and Walter Clayton Jr. refused to lose. The duo combined to hit four triples in the final three minutes, erasing a nine-point deficit and getting Florida back to the Final Four for the first time since 2014. Clayton’s 30 points led the way, but the Gators’ overall outstanding free throw shooting (25 of 27) — especially in contrast with the Red Raiders missing two critical front ends — earned them the victory. They now get Auburn, whom they obliterated on the Plains in early February.
Biggest reasons for optimism: Florida is deep and immensely talented, and Clayton is the best closer in college basketball. They have survived shaky performances in this tournament, staring defeat in the face and coming out the other side. They will fear nothing in San Antonio.
Kelvin Sampson has built his program on a stout defensive foundation, and the Cougars showed how impressive they are on that end on Sunday afternoon. Tennessee managed just 15 points in the first half, a record low for an Elite Eight game, and the Cougars maintained a double-digit lead for the entire second half. Emanuel Sharp (16 points) and LJ Cryer (17 points) hit just enough shots to keep any potential Vols comeback at bay. Houston now gets a shot at redemption against Duke, who sent the Cougars home last March in a grinding 54-51 Sweet 16 battle.
Biggest reasons for optimism: Led by a long, athletic frontcourt, the Cougars have the best defense in the country. They also have three snipers in their starting backcourt, and point guard Milos Uzan’s ascension to stardom has given Houston another major shot creator.
The Tigers led for essentially the entire game against Michigan State, clinching Bruce Pearl’s second Final Four appearance at Auburn. Johni Broome was masterful, tallying 25 points and 14 rebounds despite missing a chunk of the game after a scary fall. Broome’s health will be a major storyline heading into next weekend, as both his right elbow and left ankle appeared to hamper him even after he returned to the game. The Tigers’ defense allowed them to stay ahead against Michigan State, but against Florida — which destroyed Auburn at Auburn in February despite missing starter Alijah Martin — they will need a fully healthy Broome.
Biggest reasons for optimism: For extended stretches against Michigan and Michigan State, Auburn has looked like the powerhouse that started the season 27-2 (including 15-1 in one of the toughest conferences ever). That version of Auburn was the best team in the country, replete with scoring options and defensive versatility.
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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Jared C. Tilton, James Gilbert / Getty Images)
