Amid the stunning spins of the coaching carousel and the frantic movement in the transfer portal, it’s easy to forget the NCAA Tournament still has quite a few games left. The Sweet 16 begins Thursday night with multiple high-caliber matchups, which will hopefully help make up for the lack of instant classics in the event’s opening weekend.
Here’s a look at a key factor (or two) to watch in each Sweet 16 showdown.
BYU vs. Alabama (Thursday, 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS)
The schedule-makers smiled down on tournament viewers for this round of games, immediately giving fans a delectable matchup of lethal offenses. Both teams rank top-10 in offensive efficiency, per KenPom; Bart Torvik slots Alabama No. 4 and BYU No. 5. Add in Alabama’s breakneck tempo and BYU’s general willingness to embrace that pace, and this one should be a fireworks show.
When BYU has the ball, watch how frequently the Cougars can manufacture open perimeter jumpers. They have feasted from beyond the arc during their late-season surge, hitting 10-plus 3-pointers in 10 of their last 15 games. The long ball opens up the paint.
And although Alabama’s defense is suspect overall, it limits catch-and-shoot jumpers at an elite rate. Opponents instead have to live in the midrange/floater area because the Tide refuse to help off shooters:
Alabama forced Saint Mary’s to take 15 runners in their round-of-32 matchup Sunday, an astronomically high number. For comparison, Florida took just two such attempts when it pulverized Alabama in the SEC tournament. BYU can be effective in that range, but on the whole, those shots are significantly less efficient than catch-and-shoot jumpers.
Maryland vs. Florida (Thursday, 7:39 p.m. ET, TBS)
One small thing to watch for here is whether the tight travel timeline has any negative impact on Florida, which played in Raleigh on Sunday, quickly flew back home, then headed west to San Francisco. Maryland simply flew south from Seattle, having already acclimated to the West Coast.
On the court, though, Florida might have a key matchup advantage. Maryland’s loaded starting lineup, aka the Crab Five, has fueled the Terps’ success, but the secret sauce has been their ability to play through their bigs. Julian Reese and Derik Queen are comfortable working downhill with the ball in their hands, specifically as the roll men in ball screens. Though it did not come off a pick-and-roll, Queen’s buzzer-beater against Colorado State on Sunday displayed his off-the-bounce acumen.
The Gators, however, are loaded with huge and mobile defenders in the frontcourt. Rueben Chinyelu and Alex Condon start, and Thomas Haugh has evolved into a sixth starter off the bench. And this matchup might be the one in which Micah Handlogten, the 7-footer who recently returned from a broken leg, makes his impact felt the most.
Players similar to Queen and Reese have struggled against the Gators. National player of the year candidate Johni Broome needed 19 field goal attempts to tally 18 points against this stout front line. Other skilled bigs, like Georgia’s Asa Newell, Tennessee’s Igor Milicic Jr. and Alabama’s Grant Nelson, have also had issues. If Queen and Reese cannot get going, the scoring burden might fall too heavily on Maryland’s trio of guards.
Arizona vs. Duke (Thursday, 9:39 p.m. ET, CBS)
One of two in-season rematches in this round (Kentucky-Tennessee is the other), Arizona and Duke have some head-to-head game tape to explore. However, both teams have shifted somewhat drastically since they met in November: Duke is playing through Cooper Flagg more and has firmly entrenched Sion James in the starting lineup over Caleb Foster, and Arizona lost center Motiejus Krivas to injury and has leaned more on Henri Veesaar and Tobe Awaka up front.
Duke’s immense size at every position made its impact felt in the first meeting. The Blue Devils dominated the glass 43-30, and their long perimeter defenders limited Wildcat talisman Caleb Love to a poor 3-of-13 shooting night, including 1-of-9 from deep.
As has been the case for his entire college career, Love’s team goes as he goes. He erupted for 29 points, nine rebounds and four assists in Arizona’s round-of-32 win over Oregon on Sunday night, and he will need to find that form for the underdog Wildcats to have a chance against Duke.
In that November meeting with his old archrival, the former Tar Heel looked like he was pressing, forcing some deep jumpers early in the shot clock:
Love has had monster games against Duke before, including his 28-point explosion to end Mike Krzyzewski’s career in the 2022 Final Four. With lanky defenders like James and Tyrese Proctor hounding him, can he rediscover that NCAA Tournament magic? If not, Duke could steamroll Arizona for another easy double-digit victory.
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech (10:09 p.m. ET, TBS)
Arkansas is the last team lower than a No. 6 seed remaining in the tournament. The Razorbacks hardly look like an upstart, though, boasting immense positional size (18th nationally in average height, per KenPom).
They will need to use that size against Texas Tech’s smaller perimeter. The Hogs’ wings consistently got downhill and drew contact against St. John’s on Saturday, with freshmen Karter Knox and Billy Richmond combining to shoot 18 free throws. With athletic forward Adou Thiero due back from injury, albeit with a minutes restriction, the Razorbacks could find even more success getting to the charity stripe against a Red Raiders defense that can be prone to fouling.
On the other end, though, Texas Tech can repeatedly attack Arkansas’ pick-and-roll defense with JT Toppin as the roll man. The Red Raiders love to feed their star southpaw via the pocket pass and let him go to work in space against rotating defenses:
That setup can be tough to use against switching teams, but Arkansas generally plays its bigs more around the level of the screen, opening that pocket pass. As a result, opposing roll men have feasted on Arkansas’ defense. Per Synergy, opposing roll men have tallied 1.166 points per possession against the Razorbacks this season, ranking the Hogs’ defense in the bottom 10 percent nationally against that look. If Toppin has a monster game Thursday night, that will likely be why.
Ole Miss vs. Michigan State (Friday, 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS)
Friday’s opener brings together two teams that have found great success in winning the shot volume battle on a nightly basis but in vastly different ways.
For Ole Miss, it happens via turnovers: The Rebels rank fourth nationally in turnover margin. The Rebels’ veteran guards are all sure-handed, and their lone interior force, Malik Dia, never coughs it up despite using a ton of possessions in the paint.
The Spartans, on the other hand, dominate the glass, ranking second in Division I in rebounding margin, bludgeoning the boards on both ends with a deep and physical stable of towering big men led by Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper.
If either team can negate the other’s huge strength — either by the Rebels battling on the boards or Michigan State taking care of the rock — it will gain an important edge against the opponent’s typical area of control.
One other key matchup tug-of-war: Ole Miss’ constant switching defensively forces isolation possessions at one of the highest rates in the country. Chris Beard’s defense is tough to beat via ball and man movement. Unfortunately, those are the staples of Michigan State’s offense, which ranks 17th nationally in assist rate, per KenPom, but a dismal 342nd in frequency of Isolations Including Passes and 337th in efficiency in Isolations Including Passes, per Synergy. If MSU has to play one-on-one basketball, it will desperately need a big game from diaper dandy Jase Richardson.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee (Friday, 7:39 p.m. ET, TBS)
It is and will always be a make-or-miss sport, so pardon the rationalization here, but Kentucky’s 2-0 record against Tennessee during the regular season warrants a significant asterisk. In those two games, Kentucky shot a scorching 24-of-48 (50 percent) from beyond the arc. The Vols, meanwhile, sank just 14 of 63 (22.2 percent) from deep, and that poor shooting doomed them.
Perhaps more significant than the success rate for Tennessee, though, was the volume. The Vols are generally a willing and capable perimeter scoring team, particularly when Chaz Lanier is torching the nets. However, in their first meeting, Kentucky’s compact perimeter shell baited Tennessee into taking 45 3s compared to just 27 2s, an alarmingly strong tilt to the outside.
In the second meeting, head coach Rick Barnes and his staff emphasized getting inside. The Vols took 36 2s compared to just 18 3s in that meeting, and they dominated the paint, shooting 56 percent inside the arc, winning the rebounding battle 33-26 and making more free throws (15) than Kentucky attempted (14). Had the 3-point splits not been so wildly tilted toward UK, it would have been an important road win for the Volunteers.
Mark Pope is a smart coach, and he knows his team is the better group from long range. Thus, he would be happy to tempt Tennessee into another shooting contest. Should the Vols oblige, Kentucky has a great chance to win. If Tennessee pounds it inside via drives, cuts and the offensive glass, then the advantage shifts hard toward Barnes’ squad.
Michigan vs. Auburn (Friday, 9:39 p.m. ET, CBS)
Auburn’s frontcourt struggled in the round of 32 against the incomparable defensive pillar that is Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner. Johni Broome was merely pedestrian against the Bluejays behemoth, managing just 8 points and 12 rebounds and going 4-of-13 from the field, and Dylan Cardwell contributed just 6 points and four rebounds. Instead, the Tigers’ backcourt had to carry them past Greg McDermott’s stubborn squad.
It does not get much easier for Auburn, as Michigan’s twin-tower lineup of 7-footers Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin awaits in the Sweet 16. That duo takes away the rim entirely; per CBB Analytics, opponents take just 22.9 percent of their field goals there (in the bottom 3 percent nationally) while shooting just 59.0 percent (in the bottom 20 percent). If Broome struggles again with Wolf and Goldin patrolling the paint, can Auburn’s guards win the Tigers another game on this stage?
The Wolverines need to attack Auburn inside on the other end, as well. In all five Auburn losses this season, the Tigers have surrendered at least 10 offensive rebounds, including a staggering 24 to Texas A&M. Michigan is fresh off corralling 16 of its own misses against those same Aggies, so the Wolverines could find major success on the glass.
Unfortunately for Michigan, few teams appear better suited to defend the unconventional Wolf-Goldin pick-and-roll than Auburn. Broome and Cardwell are huge and mobile, so the Tigers can simply switch that action and force other Wolverines to beat them. Can Roddy Gayle Jr. go nuts again after a season-high 26 points? If this game becomes a stalemate inside, it could come down to a battle of the backcourts.
Purdue vs. Houston (Friday, 10:09 p.m. ET, TBS)
On one end, Houston’s offense should be able to do what it does, even against an improving Purdue defense. That means launching jumpers via LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan, attacking through J’Wan Roberts at the elbow and dominating the offensive glass. Purdue will have to play bigger lineups to compete on the boards when either of those strategies fails.
When Purdue has the ball, though, the chess match could be particularly intriguing. Houston famously plays ball screens as aggressively as any team in the country, trapping the ballhandler with two defenders and recovering aggressively behind them. That would take the ball out of Big Ten player of the year Braden Smith’s hands, forcing him to beat those traps with tough passes and prove he is fully past the turnover demons that have haunted him at times. With Smith coming off a career-high eight miscues against McNeese in the round of 32, Houston’s harassing defenders are likely frothing at the mouth.
If Smith can get passes through, it shifts playmaking duties to Trey Kaufman-Renn in the short roll. Few Big Ten teams deploy ball screen coverages like Houston’s, so most of Kaufman-Renn’s 76 assists have come out of the post. But McNeese’s aggression gave him decent practice in the short roll, where he showed decent poise (albeit against a lesser version of Houston):
Everything will look significantly more frenetic against the Cougars’ defense. But if Kaufman-Renn shows up as a playmaker and Purdue’s shooters hit weakside jumpers, the Boilermakers can give Houston a real fight.
(Photo of Caleb Love: Chris Coduto / Getty Images)
