The upsets have already started at the 2025 NCAA Tournament, and the second full day of men’s March Madness on Friday is setting up for more of the same.

The expected injury return of Duke’s Cooper Flagg will be a major storyline along with first-round games featuring Final Four hopefuls like No. 1 seed Florida, No. 2 seed Alabama and No. 2 seed Michigan State. But it’s the presence of so many potential upsets, bracket busters and Cinderella teams that could steal the spotlight ahead of the weekend.

Of the 16 first-round games on the NCAA Tournament schedule Friday, ESPN lists seven with an underdog that has at least a 30% percent of winning. Here’s a look at some of the best bets to pull off an upset as the first round of the March Madness bracket comes to a close:

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March Madness upset predictions today: NCAA Tournament first-round surprise teams

Here are the best bets to pull off an upset during Friday’s first-round games at the 2025 NCAA Tournament based on ESPN’s matchup predictor.

FOLLOW THE MADNESS: NCAA men’s tournament bracket, scores, schedules, teams and more.

No. 12 seed Colorado State over No. 5 seed Memphis

Colorado State opened as a slight favorite over Memphis, and that was before the Tigers got bad news about the availability of guard Tyrese Hunter. The Rams also enter March Madness as one of the hottest teams in the country after winning 10 consecutive games and the Mountain West Conference tournament championship. Memphis hasn’t played a team as good as Colorado State since December. In Memphis all-American PJ Haggerty and Colorado State star Nique Clifford, both teams feature players capable of taking over a game offensively.

No. 11 seed UNC over No. 6 seed Ole Miss

The Tar Heels have gone from the most controversial team included in the 2025 NCAA Tournament field to a popular pick to do damage in the South Region bracket. UNC is a slight favorite over Ole Miss after only losing twice to Duke over the past month. The Rebels, meanwhile, lost five of their last eight games in the loaded SEC. UNC coach Hubert Davis is now 8-2 in NCAA Tournament games, but this would be the Tar Heels’ best win of the season based on KenPom ratings. Ole Miss, meanwhile, has five wins over teams rated ahead of UNC in the metric.

MARCH MADNESS BRACKET 2025: AI picks every men’s NCAA Tournament game winner

No. 10 seed Vanderbilt over No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s

This is a trendy pick for those who believe the SEC’s record 14 NCAA Tournament berths is an indication of how much better it was than other leagues this season. Though the Commodores finished 11th in the conference standings, they have wins over top-four seeds Tennessee, Kentucky and Texas A&M this season. Saint Mary’s has lost in the first round in six of its 10 NCAA Tournament appearances since 2005, including last year.

No. 10 seed New Mexico over No. 7 seed Marquette

There could be some insider trading to help aid this potential upset. New Mexico coach Richard Pitino faces the same team his father ‒ St. John’s coach Rick Pitino ‒ beat three times this season in Big East play. Marquette has experienced guards in Kam Jones and Stevie Mitchell, but the Golden Eagles went just 8-8 over their last 16 games. New Mexico likes to play at one of the country’s fastest tempos and owns seven wins over teams in the NCAA Tournament field this year.

No. 11 seed Xavier over No. 6 seed Illinois

After Xavier’s comeback win over Texas in a play-in game, ESPN gives the Musketeers almost a 40% chance to advance again when it faces the Fighting Illini. Perhaps it’s because of the gap in age between the two teams’ cores. Coach Sean Miller’s team has won eight of its past nine games after a rocky start to the season with one of the country’s most experienced rosters anchored by Zach Freemantle. Illinois, on the other hand, has two freshmen and a sophomore as its leading scorers this season.

March Madness 2025: NCAA Tournament first-round games today

All times Eastern

• No. 9 Baylor vs. No. 8 Mississippi State, 12:15 p.m. on CBS
• No. 15 Robert Morris vs. No. 2 Alabama, 12:40 p.m. on truTV
• No. 14 Lipscomb vs. No. 3 Iowa State, 1:30 p.m. on TNT
• No. 12 Colorado State vs. No. 5 Memphis, 2 p.m. on TBS
• No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s vs. No. 1 Duke, 2:50 p.m. on CBS
• No. 10 Vanderbilt vs. No. 7 Saint Mary’s, 3:15 p.m. on truTV
• No. 11 North Carolina vs. No. 6 Ole Miss, 4:05 p.m. on TNT
• No. 13 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Maryland, 4:35 p.m. on TBS

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• No. 16 Norfolk State vs. No. 1 Florida, 6:50 p.m. on TNT
• No. 14 Troy vs. No. 3 Kentucky, 7:10 p.m. on CBS
• No. 10 New Mexico vs. No. 7 Marquette, 7:35 p.m. on truTV
• No. 13 Akron vs. No. 4 Arizona, 7:35 p.m. on truTV
• No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 8 UConn, 9:25 p.m. on TNT
• No. 11 Xavier vs. No. 6 Illinois, 9:45 p.m. on CBS
• No. 15 Bryant vs. No. 2 Michigan State, 10 p.m. on TBS
• No. 12 Liberty vs. No. 5 Oregon, 10:10 p.m. on truTV

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