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The NCAA Tournament 2025 features four debutantes in High Point, UC San Diego, SIU Edwardsville and Omaha. They’ll make their NCAA Tournament bracket debuts, though their respective stays may be short-lived since each is seeded 12th or higher. The two March Madness newcomers last year lost their first-round matchups by an average of 33.5 points, so the fan bases of these four may look at simply making the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket as a reason to celebrate. No. 12 UCSD is the highest-ranked of the quartet and possesses outstanding metrics. It ranks in the top 10 in the country in 3-pointers per game, steals per game and points allowed per game. A matchup with No. 5 Michigan awaits on Thursday in the 2025 March Madness bracket. Before you make your 2025 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida, and No. 12 James Madison over No. 5 Wisconsin last year. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past six tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s championship run last year. It nailed 13 teams in the Sweet 16 and was all over Alabama’s Cinderella run to the Final Four as a 4-seed.

Now, SportsLine’s advanced computer model has simulated the entire 2025 March Madness bracket 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2025 March Madness bracket upset picks

One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 13 Yale beats No. 4 Texas A&M, a team that ranked as high as No. 7 in the AP Poll this year. Yale knows something about pulling off first-round upsets as the Bulldogs defeated Auburn as a No. 13 seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Yale won 78-76 after outscoring Auburn by nine points in the second half and returned John Poulakidas, who scored 28 points against Auburn. The Bulldogs also retained head coach James Jones, who has guided the program the entire 21st century.

Poulakidas, a senior guard, averaged 19.2 points per game this season, including scoring 25 points against Cornell as Yale won its second straight Ivy League Tournament. Poulakidas proved last year he isn’t afraid of the big moment. Texas A&M is 2-5 over its last seven games and although those were tough matchups with how strong the SEC was this season, the Aggies were favored in three of those five losses. 

Another South Region surprise the model has identified: Creighton beats Louisville in the all-important 8-9 matchup. The 9-seed Bluejays have a classic inside-out offense where 7-footer Ryan Kalkbrenner (19.4 ppg) dominates inside the arc, while Creighton also led the Big East in made 3-pointers. On the other end of the court, Creighton doesn’t give up free points from the charity stripe as it has allowed both the second-fewest free throw attempts and makes in the nation. That could stunt Louisville’s offense, which isn’t the most efficient in other areas of the court.

The Cardinals rank 234th in the nation in 3-point percentage, and that’s with guard Reyne Smith, who leads the ACC in made 3-pointers. He’s been out since March 5, and no one knows what he can contribute if he does suit up. Additionally, this is a new stage for Louisville’s current roster as the program hasn’t won a tournament game since 2017. Creighton has an Elite Eight appearance, plus a pair of Sweet 16s, since then, and the Bluejays have multiple victories over the last two NCAA Tournaments. See which other 2025 March Madness matchups to target here.

How to make 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2025 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2025 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a team that’s only ever won a single tournament game, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that’s nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.