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UC San Diego is coming off a dominant regular season, entering the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket on a league-best 15-game winning streak. The Tritons were picked to finish third in the Big West preseason poll, but they won the regular season and conference tournament championships. They earned a No. 12 seed in the 2025 March Madness bracket against No. 5 seed Michigan in an intriguing first-round contest. The Tritons could be one of the popular 2025 NCAA Tournament upset picks, but should you have them advancing multiple rounds as one of the 2025 March Madness Cinderella teams?

Picking a 12-seed to beat a 5-seed is a popular 2025 March Madness bracket strategy, so Liberty, McNeese and Colorado State are other candidates to advance in first-round upsets. Which games should you target in your 2025 March Madness pool picks? Before you make your 2025 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida, and No. 12 James Madison over No. 5 Wisconsin last year. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past six tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s championship run last year. It nailed 13 teams in the Sweet 16 and was all over Alabama’s Cinderella run to the Final Four as a 4-seed.

Now, SportsLine’s advanced computer model has simulated the entire 2025 March Madness bracket 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2025 March Madness bracket upset picks

One South Region surprise the model has identified: the First Four winner of North Carolina vs. San Diego State will knock off No. 6 Ole Miss in the first round. The Tar Heels were a surprise entry into the tournament field, but they could potentially be favored against Ole Miss in that first-round matchup. San Diego State flashed its potential early in the season when it beat Houston in November, forcing 12 turnovers while holding the Cougars to just 32% shooting from inside the arc.

The Aztecs have forced turnovers on 20% of their Mountain West opponents’ possessions this season, so they could pose a problem for Ole Miss as well. The Rebels are one of the smallest teams in the field, and they rank outside the top 80 nationally in scoring. Those scoring droughts could pop up again in a pressure-packed game against an opponent that has generated momentum with a First Four victory.

Another South Region surprise the model has identified: Creighton beats Louisville in the all-important 8-9 matchup. The Blue Jays are certainly more seasoned, as they will be making their 10th NCAA Tournament appearance in 14 years. The Cardinals are making their first appearance since 2019.

Creighton also has scoring power returning from last year’s tournament roster in center Ryan Kalkbrenner and guard Steven Ashworth. Kalkbrenner averaged 19.4 points and 8.8 rebounds per game while Ashworth led the Blue Jays with 6.8 assists per game. Louisville’s defense ranked fifth in the ACC this season, but the team struggled against ranked opponents, suggesting they will have a hard time containing Creighton in the NCAA Tournament. See which other 2025 March Madness matchups to target here.

How to make 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2025 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2025 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a team that’s only ever won a single tournament game, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that’s nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.