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The 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket is set and 2025 March Madness bracket picks are being entered. Every year there are numerous NCAA Tournament upsets, and history would suggest that March Madness 2025 will be no different. One of the most common upsets in NCAA Tournament history is 12-seeds beating 5-seeds. In 33 of the last 39 NCAA Tournament brackets, there has been at least one 12-seed advancing over a 5-seed. In 2024, there were two 12-5 upsets: Grand Canyon over Saint Mary’s and James Madison over Wisconsin.

In total, 12-seeds have an overall record of 55-101 in first-round NCAA Tournament games. The 12-seeds in the 2025 NCAA bracket include UC San Diego, Liberty, Colorado State, and McNeese State. Do any of the four have what it takes to pull off a 12-5 upset in the NCAA Tournament 2025? Before you make your 2025 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida, and No. 12 James Madison over No. 5 Wisconsin last year. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past six tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s championship run last year. It nailed 13 teams in the Sweet 16 and was all over Alabama’s Cinderella run to the Final Four as a 4-seed.

Now, SportsLine’s advanced computer model has simulated the entire 2025 March Madness bracket 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2025 March Madness bracket upset picks

One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 13 Yale beats No. 4 Texas A&M, a team that ranked as high as No. 7 in the AP Poll this year. The Aggies rely heavily on their offensive rebounding, as they rank outside the top 40 in adjusted offensive efficiency and struggle from beyond the arc. Those are difficult metrics to overcome in the NCAA Tournament, despite having a strong defense.

Yale pulled off a first-round upset over Auburn last season, and it is coming off another Ivy League regular-season title. Bez Mbeng was named Ivy League Player of the Year, while veteran guard John Poulakidas averages nearly 20 points per game. Nick Townsend (15.4 pgg) is also averaging double digits, so the Bulldogs have plenty of firepower and experience to pull off this upset. 

Another South Region surprise the model has identified: Creighton beats Louisville in the all-important 8-9 matchup. The Blue Jays finished the regular season ranked 38th in the country in NET, and played some of their best basketball down the stretch. Creighton is a veteran-heavy team that returns several key pieces from last year’s Sweet 16 team.

Leading the way for the Blue Jays is center Ryan Kalkbrenner. The 7-foot-1 senior is a physically imposing presence in the paint, and he is athletic enough to step out and make jump shots. This season, Kalkbrenner averaged 19.4 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. From a pure size perspective, Louisville doesn’t match up well with Kalkbrenner and the rest of Creighton’s front court. See which other 2025 March Madness matchups to target here.

How to make 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2025 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2025 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a team that’s only ever won a single tournament game, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that’s nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.