Forecasts are predicting a wet start to the 2025 Formula 1 season in Australia. After running all weekend in dry track conditions, some drivers like Lewis Hamilton or Max Verstappen could be the big beneficiaries of this change in the weather.

McLaren clearly dominated qualifying at Albert Park, with Lando Norris securing pole position ahead of Oscar Piastri, leaving Max Verstappen in the dust. But will that papaya pace prevail heading in wet weather?

Can Max Verstappen recreate his 2024 Brazil performance at the Australian GP?

Weather forecasts are predicting an 85% chance of rain at 15:00 local time for the Australian GP, and if there’s anyone who thrives in a surprise rain storm, it’s Red Bull’s Max Verstappen.

We saw this in Brazil in 2024. The reigning champion thrives in the face of adversity, and wet conditions transform him into an almost unbeatable driver. While it is true that in dry conditions the RB21 has struggled to keep up with McLaren, rain can be the Dutch driver’s great ally to beat Norris and Piastri.

However, Verstappen was the driver who achieved the highest top speed in qualifying. In other words, his set-up may not be the most optimised for a wet race.

But the team was well aware of the forecast and the confidence in the reigning champion’s hands to control his car is more than fully demonstrated by previous results.

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McLaren could be battling rear axle issues at the Australian GP

Rain is going to be the biggest enemy of the team in papaya. Over a single lap, the drivers look three-tenths slower than the competition during race simulations, and that gap will grow in a long run.

Despite having a car with great balance, the rear axle issues experienced by the MCL39 during the Bahrain test may be exposed in shifty and windy conditions.

And of course, it is in McLaren’s interest for Sunday to run in the same conditions as qualifying. Should it rain, their big advantage could be drastically reduced, shifting the odds in favor of Verstappen.

Can Lewis Hamilton draw on his experience for a strong wet-weather finish?

Lewis Hamilton is still getting up to speed behind the wheel of the Ferrari SF-25, and he could find himself even further outside of his comfort zone should the rain hit. But no matter what, he still has one thing: Wet weathter experience.

The Italian team’s engineers have been smart and have agreed surely along with Hamilton to be the car with the highest downforce level on the grid in qualifying. Firstly, to facilitate the handling and comfort of the seven-time world champion in his new challenger and secondly, to put Lewis in a more favourable position for Sunday in case of rain.

Wet weather is Liam Lawson’s Red Bull nightmare

After Lawson’s poor qualifying performance, he has little to lose this weekend, but with the rain, his chances of making up positions on track will be greatly reduced.

The New Zealander will have very little visibility due to the spray from almost the entire grid except for the two Haas drivers, and he will also have to take risks to overtake.

It’s certainly not the perfect scenario where the RB21’s apparent performance advantage over Sauber or Aston Martin will also be equalised — all at a track that Lawson is still learning.

The only positive aspect is the possibility of taking risky strategic decisions that could provide a very high ‘reward’ of positions on track. But it will depend on the race in mixed conditions, the luck of the engineers and the driver himself in making his calls.

Fernando Alonso can make the best of any situation

The Spanish driver is another driver like Max Verstappen who thrives in the face of adversity. In qualifying for the Australian GP this year, he damaged the floor of his Aston Martin in qualifying and was unable to fight his way into Q3 when he seemed to have the pace to do so.

The most veteran driver on the grid is an expert in wet conditions, and in a midfield so tight in terms of race pace, race pace and performance will lie firmly in the hands of the driver that can finish with the most points behind McLaren, Ferrari, and Verstappen.

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