Anthony Zurcher
BBC North America correspondent•@awzurcher
Reporting from
Florida
Republicans have won a closely watched special Florida congressional election but with a much reduced majority that will make them uneasy about next year’s midterms.
Republican State Senator Randy Fine defeated Democrat Josh Weil to fill the seat that was held by National Security Advisor Michael Waltz.
The result dashes Democratic hopes of pulling what would have been a stunning upset in a district that Donald Trump carried by 30 points in last November’s presidential election.
The Republican prevailed in the other Florida special election, to fill the seat vacated by firebrand conservative Congressman Matt Gaetz.
That contest never drew the kind of national fundraising dollars, or attention, that the Fine-Weil matchup garnered.
But the narrow margin of Fine’s victory, down to around 14 points, is likely to stoke some Republican anxiety about their prospects in the national mid-term congressional elections in 2025.
Democrat Weil, a strong Gaza supporter who clashed with Fine’s anti-Palestinian stance, made waves by raising more than $12m in campaign donations, compared to the approximately $1m brought in by his opponent. That disparity, along with polls that showed a contest within the margin of error, had put this congressional race in the national spotlight.
It also prompted a last-minute influx of national Republican support that included telephone town halls by Trump and other prominent conservatives. Those efforts appear to have paid off, as Republican turnout climbed in the final days of early voting and in-person ballots cast by Republicans exceeded party expectations on election day.
At a polling location at a library in Daytona Beach, a steady stream of voters clad in American flag hats and Trump paraphernalia served as a vivid illustration of a last-minute surge of conservative support for Fine.
“People are getting the message that they need to turn out to vote,” said Mary Fikert, a Fine campaign volunteer stationed at a small tent in the library’s expansive parking lot. “It was embarrassing that it was so close.”
Republicans still hold only a narrow majority in the House of Representatives after Tuesday’s results, but it appears to be a sustainable margin through next year’s election, improving what would have been gloomy prospects of advancing Trump’s legislative agenda if Fine had been defeated.
Democrats may be buoyed by the relative success achieved by Weil, a public school teacher who has never held elective office. His message focused on what he characterised as the dire consequences of the White House’s efforts to slash government programmes and personnel. That resonated in the conservative region, which is populated by military veterans and retirees, although it was not enough to carry him to victory.
Even before results were announced, Democrats predicted that their progress here in Florida would be a harbinger of larger success in next year’s congressional mid-term elections. That remains to be seen.
Republicans, on the other hand, will be relieved that electoral disaster was averted, even if some candidates in more closely contested races next year face a less hospitable political climate than they enjoyed in 2024.
