Colorado State is a popular pick to pull off an upset Friday. / Logan Newell/The Coloradoan / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I’m still crossing my fingers for at least one buzzer beater today—and the odds are better, with the women’s tournament also getting underway.
In today’s SI:AM:
🔺 The epicenter of March Madness
Every neutral college basketball fan is rooting for the same thing when the NCAA tournament begins: chaos. We want to see the bluebloods felled by an underfunded state school with a cardinal direction in its name or a tiny private school that no one could place on a map. So by that measure, the first day of the men’s tournament on Thursday was a disappointment.
Only three double-digit seeds pulled off upsets Thursday, and none of them was an enormous surprise. One was the No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks, who beat the No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks. When fans say they want to see upsets, they’re not talking about an SEC team coached by John Calipari. The other two fit the definition a little better, but not perfectly. The No. 12 seed McNeese Cowboys held off a valiant comeback by the No. 5 Clemson Tigers, and the No. 11 Drake Bulldogs smothered the No. 6 Missouri Tigers with their Division I–best defense. But it was easy to envision them winning. This is a Drake squad that had already won 30 games, and a McNeese team led by one of the best coaches in the nation, unexpectedly banished to the Southland Conference due to recruiting violations at LSU that seem quaint by today’s standards. Both teams had been popular upset picks, with 40% of users in ESPN’s bracket game picking Drake to win and 18% picking McNeese.
Other potential Cinderellas fell short on Thursday, though. The 12-seed UC San Diego Tritons, another trendy pick, went down to the wire against the Michigan Wolverines but came up short. The No. 13 Yale Bulldogs, who pulled off an upset over the Auburn Tigers last tournament, couldn’t replicate that success against the Texas A&M Aggies. The No. 11 VCU Rams kept it close against the BYU Cougars but trailed for the final 25 minutes.
Over the previous 10 men’s NCAA tournaments, double-digit seeds averaged seven first-round wins per year. The three upsets on Thursday put us behind that pace, but not dramatically so. Teams seeded 10th and lower will need to go at least 4–10 on Friday to equal that historical average. But it also wouldn’t be a shock if this ended up being a tournament with relatively few first-round upsets. Double-digit seeds have won at least five Round 1 games in every tournament since 2008, which means we need at least two upsets on Friday to keep that streak alive.
So where might the upsets come from? They wouldn’t be your typical Cinderella, but the No. 11 North Carolina Tar Heels could be poised to make some noise. UNC’s inclusion in the field was highly controversial after a disappointing regular season, but it smacked the San Diego State Aztecs in the First Four to set up a first-round matchup against the No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels. The Tar Heels haven’t proven they’re capable of winning against top teams (they’re 1–12 in Quad 1 games this season) but they have enough talent to strike fear into the hearts of the Rebels. North Carolina is actually the betting favorite in that one.
The No. 12 Colorado State Rams are also a popular upset pick (38% on ESPN) against a Memphis Tigers team that looked highly vulnerable in three close games against inferior opponents in the AAC tournament. The battle-tested No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores should hang tight with the No. 7 Saint Mary’s Gaels, who played a middling schedule in the WCC. The No. 10 New Mexico Lobos had a highly impressive 17–3 record in a tough Mountain West Conference and have a winnable first-round game against the Marquette Golden Eagles.
The beauty of March Madness, though, is the unpredictability. Could the No. 13 Akron Zips shock the Arizona Wildcats? Will America fall in love with senior forward Jacob Ognacevic of the No. 14 Lipscomb Bison? Will one of the No. 16 seeds pull off the unthinkable? That’s what everyone will be rooting for.
McNeese provided the early fireworks of the tournament Thursday. / Eric Canha-Imagn Images
… plays from Day 1 of March Madness:
5. Drake guard Mitch Mascari’s tricky shot while falling to the floor.
4. The hustle by UCSD to score two baskets in eight seconds thanks to a pair of steals.
3. UCLA’s flawless passing on these two baskets early in the Bruins’ win over Utah State.
2. Drake star Bennett Stirtz’s nasty step-back before burying a three.
1. Houston freshman Mercy Miller’s blazing speed and relentless hustle for a big chase-down block.
Published 1 Hour Ago|Modified 10:59 AM EDT
