Several elections on Tuesday will be a crucial test of the popularity of the chaotic and extremist first two months of Donald Trump’s second term and the clout of his close ally, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man who has been tasked with radically reforming the US federal government.
They could also offer a glimmer of hope to Democrats – fresh off a surprise upset win in a local race in Pennsylvania last week – that their divided political party could be seeing a resurgence in its fortunes. Or, if they fail to land further blows on Republicans, it will be yet another sign that the party is destined for a long period in the wilderness amid historic lows of its popularity in recent polls.
Many eyes are focused on two previously Republican-held congressional seats in Florida, where its sixth and first congressional districts are vacant and up for grabs. Mike Waltz left to take up a cabinet job for Trump and Matt Gaetz resigned to pursue a failed bid to become attorney general.
House Republicans currently hold a razor-thin majority over Democrats, 218 to 213, with four seats vacant, in the lower chamber of Congress. Republican nerves about how tight the House could become were emphasized last week after Trump pulled the nomination of New York congresswoman Elise Stefanik to be United Nations ambassador – a move widely seen as admitting that marginal Republican districts are at risk of being lost.
It is the old district of Waltz, Trump’s embattled national security adviser, that is most at risk. State senator Randy Fine has lagged behind his Democratic opponent, Josh Weil, in fundraising amid concerns that he could lose the district – though such a defeat is far from certain.
Last week Trump held a tele-rally for Fine, speaking to voters over the phone. “Randy will always have a very open door to the Oval Office. He will be there whenever I need him, and he wants to be there whenever we need him. He wants to be there for you,” the president said.
The other district is seen as less of a risk. Florida’s chief financial officer Jimmy Patronis is bidding to take over Gaetz’s seat, with Trump holding a similar rally for the Republican candidate. “The 1st Congressional District is special, and I won it by a lot, and Jimmy is going to win it by a lot,” Trump said.
Patronis’s opponent is Gay Valimont, a gun violence prevention activist.
The two other vacant House seats are in Texas, where Republican governor Greg Abbott appears in no rush to call a special election to replace deceased Democrat Sylvester Turner; and in Arizona, where Democrat Raul Grijalva died two weeks ago.
Democrats were buoyed by last week’s unexpected capture of a Republican state senate seat in Pennsylvania. There, candidate James Malone triumphed in the 36th senatorial district, which voted for Trump over Kamala Harris by more than 15 points in last November’s presidential election.
“It’s only March, and Democrats have defied the odds again with another upset victory in Republican territory,” Heather Williams, president of the Democratic legislative campaign committee, said in a statement after the win.
Meanwhile in Wisconsin, Musk’s political influence will be tested on Tuesday in a crucial race for a seat on the state’s supreme court, where liberals are defending a 4-3 majority.
The billionaire has been actively backing Republican Brad Schimel, both vocally and financially, funding advertisements against his opponent Susan Crawford and spending an estimated $10m on the race through a political action committee. Schimel also has Trump’s backing.
The court’s ideological balance is seen as crucial with major cases on abortion, union rights, election law and congressional redistricting already under consideration, or expected to be argued soon.
Crawford, who holds a narrow polling advantage, told supporters this month: “Elon Musk is trying to buy a seat on our supreme court so Brad Schimel can rubber-stamp his extreme agenda.”
Democrats have also spent freely on Wisconsin race, an estimated $32m to Schimel’s $41m, including sizable donations from the liberal philanthropist George Soros and the Illinois governor, JB Pritzker.
Nationally, however, Democrats continue to struggle with historically unfavorable ratings since Harris’s November defeat, with the party riven by infighting over a perceived failing by leadership to stand up to Trump’s extremism.
A CNN poll earlier this month revealed only 29% of respondents, an all-time low in the more than three decades of the survey, viewed the party favorably. Meanwhile, 57% said they wanted Democrats to oppose the Republican agenda rather than working with the majority to pass legislation that included Democratic ideas and priorities.
The poll was taken before 10 Democratic senators, including minority leader Chuck Schumer, joined Republicans to pass a spending bill this month that averted a government shutdown.
