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Stock market today: Dow plunges 1,700 points, Nasdaq, S&P 500 see worst sell-off since 2020 as Trump’s tariffs pummel markets
- Stocks were clobbered on Thursday as markets digested President Trump’s latest tariff plans.
- The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the sell-off, plummeting over 6%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) sank nearly 5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled 4%, or over 1,700 points. This marked the fifth-worst point drop for the Dow in history.
- The March jobs report is set for release as markets are in a tailspin following President Trump’s stronger-than-expected tariff stance.
- Fears over how tariffs could slow economic growth and possibly push the US economy toward recession were at the forefront of a stock market sell-off Thursday that saw the S&P 500 fall more than 4%.
- On Friday, another look at the health of the US economy before most of President Trump’s tariff policies took hold is set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rose by 140,000 in February, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
- In February, the US economy added 151,000 jobs while the unemployment rate moved up slightly to 4.1%.
- Here are the numbers Wall Street is expecting on Friday, according to data from Bloomberg:
- “Risks around this report may be asymmetric,” Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note to clients previewing the event prior to the latest tariff announcements. “We think it would take a lot of employment growth to alleviate fears of a sharper slowdown in the economy, while a mildly below-consensus print could fuel those concerns.”
- President Trump on Wednesday laid out his long-awaited plans to slap reciprocal tariffs on countries around the world — prompting warnings from Wall Street economists that the risk of a US recession just went up.
- In a note published Wednesday, Oxford Economics economist Ryan Sweet said the economy has become “dangerously vulnerable” to a recession over the next 12 months, with the average US tariff rate set to rise to levels not seen in 100 years.
- Morningstar described tariffs as “a self-inflicted economic catastrophe,” noting recession risks over the next year have climbed to at least one-third, while the global economic outlook will experience “an entirely new level of uncertainty.”
- JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli highlighted the expected hit to purchasing power, which could turn disposable income growth negative in the second half of the year and contract consumer spending: “This impact alone could take the economy perilously close to slipping into recession.”
- Bank of America, which categorized the stagflationary scenario as “much more likely now,” said rising inflation and falling GDP could push the economy “to the precipice of recession.”
- But some say overarching growth fears will force the Fed to act more aggressively.
- Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro, argued negative growth effects will outweigh inflation concerns. He’s predicting four interest rate cuts by year-end, roughly on par with current market expectations between three to four.
- Read more here.
- In a question about Thursday’s stock market sell-off driven by tariffs, President Trump said “it’s going very well.”
- Trump added that the “markets are going to boom” and “the country is going to boom.”
- Tech stocks plummeted on Thursday, with Apple (AAPL) leading “Magnificent Seven” names lower following President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement the day prior.
- Shares of Apple, on track for their worst day since March 2020, cratered over 8% in afternoon trade as the stock erased $300 billion from its market cap. The largest risk, according to analysts, centers on the iPhone maker’s overseas production hubs, which are particularly vulnerable to the tariffed countries.
- “Apple produces basically all their iPhones in China, and the question will be around exceptions and exemptions on this tariff policy if those companies are building more operations, factories, and plants in the US like Apple announced in February,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note to clients following the announcement.
- As trade tensions escalate, Apple has moved to increase its supply chain beyond just China, boosting manufacturing in places like India and Vietnam. But with the new tariff announcements set to impact those countries too, there’s now limited room for reprieve.
- Other Magnificent Seven players also faced significant selling action. In aggregate, that cohort of stocks is currently on track to eliminate over $800 billion from their collective market caps.
- In afternoon trade, Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA) each fell 7%, followed by a 6% drop in both Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA). Meta (META) dipped 3%, while Microsoft (MSFT) was off just under 2%
- Read more here.
- President Trump’s shocking tariff announcement on Wednesday has markets reeling as investors, economists, and the public try to make sense of how these actions will weigh on the US and global economies in the months ahead.
- In a note to clients on Thursday, economists at Wells Fargo led by Brendan McKenna wrote, “Liberation Day will also be a strong test of our deglobalization and fragmentation view.”
- The firm added (emphasis added):
- While Trump’s new tariff program announced Wednesday may well be the start of what Wells Fargo calls an “escalate to negotiate” strategy, the scope and scale of the administration’s tariff plans make clear the international trading order that previously dictated global business logic is over.
- And serves as the kind of distinct break that cannot be put back together by future administrations, no matter their own trade goals.
- “We have also observed clear signs of global economic fragmentation — our view that the global economy is fracturing into two distinct economic blocs: one led by the U.S. and one led by China — is a trend that is likely to gather momentum in the years ahead as a result of Liberation Day,” the firm added.
- “Taking deglobalization and fragmentation a step further, in addition to a decisive shift away from China over the years, the Trump administration has also signaled a shift away from Europe this year… Point being, Liberation Day could also mark an inflection point in fragmentation.”
- In Wells Fargo’s view, this shift away not only from China but Europe creates a potential “tri-polar” economic order in which multiple distinct blocs of economic cooperation cross-tariff one another.
- Leading to a world potentially more fragmented in its trade goals, more fractured in its geopolitical agreements, and more expensive for businesses and consumers.
- RH stock (RH) is getting shellacked today on the double misfortunes of a weak outlook and new tariffs.
- Shares of the luxury home furnishings retailer fell nearly 40% as of midday trading. The stock is now trading at its lowest level since 2020.
- On Wednesday after the market close, RH reported that it sees revenue growing 10% to 13% for the fiscal year, below Wall Street’s expectations. Its quarterly results also disappointed, with revenue coming in at $812.4 million and adjusted earnings of $1.58 per share.
- Meanwhile, President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs, which are likely to affect RH’s supply chain. According to the company’s annual report, it sources 72% of its products from Asia, 18% from North America, and 10% from Europe and other countries.
- The extent of the stock’s decline after hours stunned RH CEO Gary Friedman, who reacted partway through the earnings call:
- “Oh shit, OK,” he said midsentence. “I just looked at the screen. I hadn’t looked at it. It got hit when I think the tariff came out and everybody can see in our 10-K where we’re sourcing from. So it’s not a secret and we’re not trying to disguise it by putting everything in an Asia bucket.”
- As we’ve been writing all day, things are pretty ugly in the stock market on Thursday.
- The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) is down more than 4.7%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is down about 3.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) has fallen nearly 3%, or over 1,000 points.
- Amid a sea of red, there are still some stocks moving higher. The Consumer Staples (XLP) sector, considered a defensive sector that investors flock to when concerned about the economic growth outlook, is the lone sector in the green, up about 0.9%.
- Lamb Weston (LW) — most well-known for its frozen potato products — is the leading performer in the S&P 500, up more than 8%. Dollar General (DG) and Kroger (KR) were both up more than 4%. Phillip Morris (PM), a maker of cigarettes and other popular nicotine products like Zyn, was up more than 3% and also among the top performers in the benchmark index.
- As the chart below shows, this trade had already started playing out during the recent sell-off, with Lamb Weston, Kroger, and Phillip Morris all in positive territory over the past month while the S&P 500 sank. And as the selling over economic growth fears intensified on Thursday, so too did the buying into companies investors expect will keep chugging along even if consumers curb their spending.
- President Trump far exceeded Wall Street’s worst fears with his “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, prompting many strategists to reconsider their previously optimistic outlooks.
- “Whether the Bull Market has ended and a Bear Market has begun will be contingent on all politicians’ response, domestic and foreign, to ‘Liberation Day,'” Julian Emanuel, who leads the equity, derivatives, and quantitative strategy team at Evercore ISI, wrote in a note to clients Wednesday night. “Our base case is that the Bull Market is being severely tested but will remain intact.”
- Thursday’s losses intensified a monthlong sell-off in stocks that had already prompted several Wall Street strategist to temper their expectations for the S&P 500. Now, with Trump’s large tariffs further clouding the outlook, strategists are mapping out how much further the benchmark index could sink.
- Read more here.
- Investors are rerating their expectations for the Federal Reserve as President Trump’s hefty tariffs are expected to weigh on US economic growth.
- Markets are now pricing in four interest rate cuts for 2025, up from the range of two or three just a week prior, per Bloomberg data.
- Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note Thursday morning that he expects the Fed to cut “at least four times.” Dutta believes the lag in growth from tariffs will become the paramount concern rather than the potential upside to inflation.
- Homebuilder stocks struggled on Thursday as President Trump’s tariff plans threw a major wrench into the sector, fueling fears that higher construction costs could slow the housing recovery.
- D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI), the biggest US homebuilder, was down 3% Thursday, while Lennar (LEN) and PulteGroup (PHM) fell more than 4%, respectively. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) also declined 5%.
- Trump unveiled the details of his major tariff plan on Wednesday, offering exemptions for Canada and Mexico which provided relief to the two biggest trading partners. However, China remains in the crosshairs, still facing the full brunt of the new tariffs, with rates now well above 50% on many goods.
- Steel, aluminum, and other metals are exempt, and lumber was also spared from the new measures.
- “While the complexity of these reciprocal tariffs makes it hard to estimate the overall impact on housing, they will undoubtedly raise some construction costs,” NAHB chairman Buddy Hughes said in a statement following President Trump’s tariff announcement.
- “However, NAHB is pleased President Trump recognized the importance of critical construction inputs for housing and chose to continue current exemptions for Canadian and Mexican products, with a specific exemption for lumber from any new tariffs at this time,” Hughes added.
- Tech and Consumer Discretionary stocks led market losses on Thursday with “Magnificent 7” stocks plummeting following President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement.
- E-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN) declined more than 9% while iPhone maker Apple (AAPL) sank more than 8%, nearing a wipeout of almost $300 billion in market cap.
- The Trump administration’s newly announced tariffs include levies on imported goods from China to the tune of 54%, while products from Vietnam include duties of 46%.
- Nvidia (NVDA) sank more than 6% after the AI giant was also downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC.
- Medical device stocks fell on Thursday amid a broader market sell-off pinned to the Trump administration’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs.
- GE Healthcare stock (GEHC) tumbled more than 10% while Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) was down more than 2% in early trading.
- Yahoo Finance’s Anjalee Khemlani reports:
- Read more here.
- Economic activity in the services sector slowed more than expected in March.
- New data from the Institute of Supply Management out Thursday showed its services PMI decreased to 50.8 in March, down from 53.5 in February. Readings above 50 indicate expansion in the sector; readings below indicate a contraction in activity.
- “Despite an increase in comments on tariff impacts and continuing concerns over potential tariffs and declining governmental spending, there was a close balance in near-term sentiment, between panelists with good outlooks and those seeing or expecting declines,” Steve Miller, the chair of Institute for Supply Management, wrote in the release.
- Given President Trump’s larger-than-expected tariff announcements on Wednesday have already spooked fears about economic growth slowing, Oxford Economics senior US economist Matthew Martin wrote that Thursday’s release will “exacerbate concerns over the health of the economy.”
- “An initial assessment of the impact of recent tariff announcements will lead us to lower our growth forecast markedly,” Martin wrote. “Odds are the economy avoids a recession, but it will be dangerously vulnerable.”
- Stock losses accelerated on Thursday morning as the Trump administration’s tariffs against US trading partners sparked fears that a trade war will lead to an economic slowdown or recession.
- By 10:40 a.m. ET, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) had tanked as much as 5%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) tanked more than 4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled more than 3.5% — over 1,500 points.
- Consumer Discretionary stocks were getting slammed during the session, with e-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN) down more than 9%.
- Gold futures (GC=F) pulled back from their record high on Thursday morning but were still outperforming the rest of the commodity complex as investors reacted to President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement.
- Futures fell more than 1% amid an overall market sell-off. Meanwhile, copper (HG=F) sank nearly 4% over fears of deteriorating demand in an escalating trade war.
- Other commodities also fell following Trump’s announcement on Wednesday imposing tariffs on its trading partners.
- Oil sank more than 7% with losses accelerating after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced it will hike oil supplies more than expected in May.
- Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi writes:
- Read more here.
- Stocks tanked on Thursday morning in reaction to President Trump’s broad reciprocal tariff announcement, sparking fears of a looming recision amid a full-blown trade war.
- The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) plummeted more than 4% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) tanked 3.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled nearly 3% — over 1,100 points.
- From retail to Big Tech, equities across the board tumbled. Megacap giants like Apple (AAPL) sank more than 7% over concerns of a disruption to supply chains in China, the source of key iPhone components. Nvidia (NVDA) and other chip stocks also declined amid similar concerns.
- Meanwhile, oil futures tanked more than 7% after members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to hike supply more than expected in May, deepening price declines sparked by President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement.
- The prospect of a trade war sparking a slowdown — or worse, a recession sent commodities lower across the board.
- Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi writes:
- Read more here.
- Oil futures tanked more than 6% on Thursday morning after members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to hike supply more than expected in May, deepening price declines sparked by President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement.
- West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) fell to hover below $67 per barrel, while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark price, declined to $70.
- The oil cartel’s decision to add 411,000 barrels a day to the market next month steepened losses in futures contracts after the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs on its trading partners.
- While energy was exempt from the levies announced on Wednesday, the move escalated the trade war, raising concerns about global demand. The tariffs sparked fears of economic slowdown, affecting oil markets.
- Tariffs on goods imported from China now total 54%. The Asian country is the world’s largest importer of crude oil.
- “54% tariff on China is a significant negative surprise. The tariffs on growing emerging economies that contribute most to crude demand growth (not absolute demand) are getting hit the hardest,” CIBC Private Wealth senior energy trader Rebecca Babin told Yahoo Finance.
