It’s hard to come up with any true takeaways after the Mariners split their first series of the season. Jorge Polanco looks healthy at the plate but shaky in the field, Ryan Bliss looks the opposite. The starting rotation continues to look like the biggest strength of this roster but the bullpen desperately needs some depth. It’s just one series and four games, so if you think you can come up with any definitive conclusions, you’re sorely mistaken. At this point in the season, a vibes-based assessment is as good as anything else we’ve got, and the vibes are … fine.

Tigers Mariners Tigers Mariners Game 1 Monday, March 31 | 6:40 pm RHP Jackson Jobe RHP Emerson Hancock 46% 54% Game 2 Tuesday, April 1 | 6:40 pm RHP Casey Mize RHP Logan Gilbert 39% 61% Game 3 Wednesday, April 2 | 1:10 pm LHP Tarik Skubal RHP Luis Castillo 52% 48%

Overview Tigers Mariners Edge Overview Tigers Mariners Edge Batting (wRC+) 95 (11th in AL) 104 (6th in AL) Mariners Fielding (OAA) 22 (4th) -17 (11th) Tigers Starting Pitching (FIP-) 88 (1st) 92 (3rd) Tigers Bullpen (FIP-) 95 (5th) 99 (8th) Tigers

The Tigers were one of the most surprising teams in baseball last year. At the trade deadline, they were 6.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot with just 2.8% playoff odds, but snapped off a 34-19 hot streak over the last two months of the season to secure that final playoff berth. That postseason appearance was the payoff after a long rebuilding cycle, though Detroit was measured in its offseason moves to bolster the roster for this season. They brought in Gleyber Torres on a one-year, pillow deal and brought back Jack Flaherty after trading him away at the trade deadline last year. With a ton of young talent and a few top prospects ready to make their debuts, the Tigers are counting on some key breakouts to continue their ascent.

Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+ Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+ Gleyber Torres 2B R 665 20.5% 9.8% 0.121 104 Kerry Carpenter RF L 296 25.3% 7.4% 0.303 160 Riley Greene LF L 584 26.7% 11.0% 0.217 135 Spencer Torkelson DH R 381 27.6% 8.7% 0.155 92 Colt Keith 1B L 556 19.8% 6.5% 0.120 97 Zach McKinstry 3B L 325 21.2% 7.4% 0.121 75 Jake Rogers C R 337 29.4% 6.5% 0.155 71 Trey Sweeney SS L 119 26.9% 5.9% 0.155 81 Ryan Kreidler CF R 223 31.4% 11.7% 0.121 69

The Tigers’ surge to the playoffs last summer was driven almost entirely by their pitching staff; the lineup was just along for the ride. Bringing in Torres was a good stopgap measure; he was probably a little overrated playing in New York but he’s a solid hitter who should help Detroit’s run production. The real stars of this lineup are Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter; those two enjoyed big breakouts last year and are the anchors around which this lineup operates. To really hit their ceiling, Detroit has to hope that Spencer Torkelson and Colt Keith eventually develop into stars. Torkelson has really struggled across his first three seasons in the big leagues, and if it weren’t for a few key injuries, the Tigers would have started the season with him as the second string first baseman and part-time designated hitter. As it is, they’ve got room for him at designated hitter while giving Keith full-time at-bats at first. Like Tork, Keith struggled upon his first taste of big league pitching and was moved off his position at the keystone after Torres was brought in this offseason.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Jackson Jobe 91 2/3 25.6% 12.0% 4.1% 36.0% 2.36 3.41 Emerson Hancock 60 2/3 14.7% 7.1% 14.1% 34.7% 4.75 5.69

Jackson Jobe is one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, ranked ninth overall by FanGraphs and fourth overall by Baseball Prospectus in their preseason prospect rankings. He made his very brief major league debut last September, making two short appearances out of the bullpen during the regular season and then two more relief appearances during the playoffs. He only has nine innings of experience in Triple-A, however, but Detroit is entrusting him with a rotation slot out of spring training this year. He’s got a fantastic fastball that can hit triple digits and a full repertoire of secondary offerings that includes a hard cutter, a nasty slider, and a changeup that’s improved by leaps and bounds since going pro. The one red flag that could prevent him from truly hitting his season is his merely average command. His walk rate was pretty elevated in the high minors and shows that he’s still a work in progress.

Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Casey Mize 102 1/3 17.3% 6.4% 10.9% 49.0% 4.49 3.95 Logan Gilbert 208 2/3 27.4% 4.6% 12.9% 45.1% 3.23 3.27

Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Four-seam 38.1% 95.5 93 97 98 0.333 Sinker 8.5% 95.5 105 50 84 0.330 Splitter 18.2% 86.2 103 106 86 0.322 Curveball 7.5% 79.6 95 68 137 0.353 Slider 27.7% 85.7 96 62 110 0.342

At one point, Casey Mize was one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, but injuries have held him back from making good on all that promise. He struggled upon his first taste of the big leagues and then missed almost all of 2022 and the following season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He returned to the mound mostly healthy last year and looked a little better than he had earlier in his career. His fastball was a little harder, his splitter was looking sharper, but he still lacked the true swing-and-miss offering to push his arsenal to the next level.

Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Tarik Skubal 192 30.3% 4.6% 8.8% 45.7% 2.39 2.49 Luis Castillo 175 1/3 24.3% 6.5% 12.3% 39.3% 3.64 3.91

Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Four-seam 33.2% 96.9 140 130 109 0.261 Sinker 20.6% 96.6 115 104 112 0.252 Changeup 27.1% 86.3 87 151 107 0.236 Curveball 4.2% 78.5 82 55 89 0.335 Slider 14.9% 88.7 120 98 96 0.304

Tarik Skubal was the unanimous winner of the AL Cy Young award last year, completing his ascent into the echelons of the best pitchers in baseball. Sure, he has a fastball that can hit triple digits, a rarity from the left side, but the real reason why he’s so dominant is because his repertoire is as complete as you can get. Each of his pitches plays well off his heater so that a batter rarely has any idea what pitch is incoming until it’s too late. Against righties, it’s a nasty changeup that ran a 46% whiff rate last year. Against lefties, it’s a hard, biting slider that ran a 34% whiff rate. He’s also got a sinker and curveball to deploy when he needs to mix things up, and his command is so good that he can dot any of those pitches wherever he wants. He really does have the complete package for an ace pitcher.

The Big Picture:

Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Rangers 3-1 0.750 — L-W-W-W Astros 2-1 0.667 0.5 W-L-W Angels 2-1 0.667 0.5 L-W-W Mariners 2-2 0.500 1.0 W-L-L-W Athletics 2-2 0.500 1.0 L-W-W-L

Don’t overreact to early season standings. Don’t overreact to early season standings. Don’t overreact to early season standings.