In 2011, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament underwent its most recent expansion, adding three teams to grow to a 68-team event.
With it came a new appendage to the tournament — the First Four, a collection of four games featuring eight teams that takes place annually at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
This year, the official start of the NCAA Tournament gives us two matchups pitting No. 16 seeds against one another — Alabama State against Saint Francis (Pa.) and American against Mount St. Mary’s — and another pair of games involving the tournament’s last four at-large selections: North Carolina against San Diego State and Texas against Xavier.
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These games are more than just television filler for a nation eager to immerse itself in the madness of March. They could be quite consequential.
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On two different occasions, a No. 11 seed that won a play-in game made a run all the way to the Final Four, including VCU in 2011, the first year of the current First Four model. In three other instances, a First Four team has advanced to at least the Sweet 16. And while a No. 16 seed beating a No. 1 seed is incredibly rare, having happened only twice since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the most recent time it occurred, it was a play-in team that pulled off the monumental upset, with Fairleigh Dickinson stunning Purdue two days after it knocked off Texas Southern in Dayton in 2023.
Here’s more information on how to watch this week’s First Four games, including start times and TV channels:
What time are men’s First Four games?
All times Eastern
Tuesday, March 18
- No. 16 Alabama State vs. No. 16 Saint Francis | 6:40 p.m. | truTV
- No. 11 San Diego State vs. No. 11 North Carolina | 9:10 p.m. | truTV
Watch men’s First Four with Sling TV
Wednesday, March 19
- No. 16 American University vs. No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s | 6:40 p.m. | truTV
- No. 11 Texas vs. No. 11 Xavier | 9:10 p.m. | truTV
Men’s First Four predictions, picks, odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Monday, March 17
No. 16 Alabama State vs. No. 16 Saint Francis
- Spread: Alabama State (-4.5)
- Over/under: 139.5
- Moneyline: Alabama State (-190) | Saint Francis (+155)
Prediction: Alabama State 65, Saint Francis 59
Coach Tony Madlock’s Alabama State team is rounding into form at the perfect time, with 10 wins in its past 11 games. The Red Flash are a great story, but they’re the only team in the tournament field with a losing record.
No. 11 San Diego State vs. No. 11 North Carolina
- Spread: North Carolina (-4.5)
- Over/under: 142.5
- Moneyline: North Carolina (-190) | San Diego State (+155)
Prediction: North Carolina 79, San Diego State 72
The NCAA Tournament has a nasty habit of seeing some of its final and most controversial inclusions silence at least some of the Selection Sunday critiques and make a run in the tournament. North Carolina could very well be the next data point in that trend, with a talented roster that should have enough to beat a San Diego State team that’s limping into the tournament.
No. 16 American University vs. No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s
- Spread: American (-2.5)
- Over/under: 129.5
- Moneyline: American (-145) | Mount St. Mary’s (+118)
Prediction: American 59, Mount St. Mary’s 57
The two schools, whose campuses are separated by about 60 miles, will be making a slightly out-of-the-way trip to Dayton for the chance to take part in the Big Dance. Mount St. Mary’s won the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in its third season in the league, but that impressive run will come to an end against an American squad that dethroned Colgate, the conference’s five-time reigning NCAA Tournament representative, in the Patriot League.
No. 11 Texas vs. No. 11 Xavier
- Spread: Xavier (-2.5)
- Over/under: 149.5
- Moneyline: Xavier (-155) | Texas (+125)
Prediction: Xavier 81, Texas 73
Xavier struggled for stretches earlier in the season without star big man Zach Freemantle, but since his return, Sean Miller’s Musketeers were one of the best teams in the Big East, with seven wins in their past eight games. Look for that late spurt to continue against a Texas team whose record is boosted largely by one of the least challenging non-conference schedules in the sport.
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