Everyone is talking about Florida Gators star senior guard Walter Clayton Jr., and for good reason. But there’s another guy who deserves as much, if not more, credit than Clayton: head coach Todd Golden.
Look, Clayton was sensational. He scored 30 points in the team’s 82-77 Elite Eight win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders and made two huge three-pointers in the final two minutes of the game, including the one that gave Florida the lead for good.
Despite Clayton struggling early in the game, Golden leaned on his star late. With Florida trailing 73-64 with just over 3:30 minutes left, Clayton went off. He had 10 of his 30 points in the final four minutes and assisted on two massive triples by Thomas Haugh.
However, the Gators might never have been in a position for Clayton to save their season were it not for a perfect strategic decision made by Golden.
I’ve been screaming for years that college basketball coaches don’t use the one-and-one to their advantage enough in late-game situations. But Golden did, and his team executed it flawlessly.
Todd Golden used the “foul early” strategy, and it helped his Florida Gators advance to the Final Four
With 2:50 remaining, Haugh hit a three-pointer to cut the Texas Tech lead to six points. Three seconds after the Red Raiders inbounded the ball, Florida purposefully committed a foul in the backcourt on Red Raiders forward Darrion Williams.
Because that was Florida’s eighth team foul of the second half, Williams went to the line to shoot one-and-one. He missed the front end and that’s when Clayton hit the first of his two huge threes.
On the ensuing Texas Tech position, Florida again purposefully fouled. This time, they didn’t do it immediately, but waited until JT Toppin – a 68% free throw shooter who was 0-4 from the line in the game at that point – touched the ball.
The Gators fouled him, and he, like Williams, missed the first free throw, giving the ball back to Florida. That’s when Clayton hit the go-ahead three, and they never trailed again.
It baffles me that more teams don’t foul in these situations. The median team free-throw percentage in college basketball is 72%. Only six teams in the entire country shot at least 80% from the line.
Plus, those numbers account for every free throw taken. What they don’t take into account is the pressure on a free-throw shooter late in the game, particularly in the NCAA Tournament when there are 20,000 fans and the season is on the line.
Darrion Williams, a very good free-throw shooter (83%), missed one of the biggest of his life against Florida. Pressure has a way of making the basket seem much farther away.
Even if Williams hits that free throw, or even if he hits both, it’s still not a bad decision to foul. When teams trail by multiple possessions late in games, they need to maximize their opportunities. Especially since, in college basketball, the shot clock is 30 seconds.
Theoretically, if both teams used the entire shot clock, there were only five possessions left in the game when Golden implored his team to commit that first foul against Williams.
The odds of a college basketball player making two free throws in that situation is low, especially when you’re talking about guys who shoot 75% or worse from the line.
Florida was always going to have to make big shots down the stretch. Even with perfect strategy, coming back from down nine points in three minutes is a tall task. In fact, Texas Tech had over a 95% win probability at that point.
But Golden’s decision gave his team the best chance to do it. Teams need to maximize late-game possessions and give themselves as many shots as possible. The best way to do that is to foul early and not allow the opponent to run those precious seconds off the clock.
Even if Tech had hit a couple of those free throws, Florida still would have been able to trade one-point possessions for three-point possessions and save time in the process.
Teams should take note of what Todd Golden and the Florida Gators did late in their win over Texas Tech. They’re now headed to the Final Four, and they wouldn’t be there without those moves by Golden.