Wisconsin is no stranger to the national spotlight.
A longstanding member on the list of swing states going back two decades, the Badger State is regularly scrutinized by campaigns and politicos in the lead up to presidential elections – including the 2024 contest won by President Donald Trump.
This week, a Wisconsin race to control the balance of power on the state Supreme Court is shaping up to be a key temperature check on voters’ moods about both national parties – as well as a referendum on President Donald Trump, Elon Musk and GOP dominance back in Washington.
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“It’s really the first major election since Trump and Republicans took office in January,” said Barry Burden, a political science professor and director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Elections Research Center.
Wisconsin voters head to the polls Tuesday to decide whether conservative Brad Schimel or liberal Susan Crawford will fill the state Supreme Court’s open seat. The outcome determines if the state’s highest court will lean 4-3 ideologically left or right.
And with issues from abortion to redistricting potentially on the line, the statewide face-off is garnering national attention from both sides of the aisle.
On the right, Trump and his billionaire adviser Elon Musk have gone all in, throwing their political and monetary weight behind Schimel’s campaign.
Overall spending in this race has already surpassed the previous record for the country’s most expensive court race, which was set two years ago also in Wisconsin. This year’s number could exceed $100 million.
Here’s what to know about Tuesday’s election in Wisconsin and the possible reverberations.
Who is running in Wisconsin’s supreme court election?
Schimel, a Waukesha County judge, entered the Supreme Court race after losing his 2018 bid for reelection as the state’s attorney general.
He faces Susan Crawford, a circuit court judge in Dane County, which includes the city of Madison.
Both have received backing from big names on the left and right. Former vice presidential candidate and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has campaigned for Crawford, while Trump has called on voters to turn out for Schimel.
Big dollar donors shell out, including Musk
Ahead of the president, Trump’s billionaire ally jumped with two feet and eight figures into the Wisconsin race. By far the largest contributor, Musk has spent around $20 million to help Schimel.
Most recently, the world’s richest man handed out a series of $1 million checks to voters who signed his “Petition In Opposition To Activist Judges.” Musk’s political action committee, America PAC, had announced the petition on X earlier in March and promised $100 in cash to each person who signs, but made no mention of any grand prizes.
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America PAC and a Musk-funded political nonprofit, Building America’s Future, have together spent more than $15 million in Wisconsin.
Though nowhere near Musk’s spending levels, Democratic donors, including billionaire investor George Soros, have also made hefty contributions in hopes of seeing Crawford victorious.
No obvious leader in Wisconsin court election polls
There is no clear-cut leader between Crawford and Schimel heading into Tuesday.
A poll published last week by the nonpartisan group SoCal Strategies found Crawford with a 50-42 lead over Schimel.
More: Wisconsin Supreme Court Election polls: What voters are saying about the judges
In a Marquette Law School Poll survey from March, 29% of voters interviewed said they view Schimel favorably, compared to 32% who saw him unfavorably. Asked about Crawford, 19% said they think of her favorably, while 23% said unfavorably.
Momentum for Democrats?
There is broad consensus that this race is a big one for both sides.
Echoing Burden, Vice President of political for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee Jeremy Jansen said, “This is the first I’d say major election since the 2024 general.”
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Democrats are on the hunt for a comeback after a disappointing last November. Their wins in a handful of special elections so far this year have given them a much-needed charge, but Wisconsin is expected to be the best benchmark to date.
Democrat Kelly Hafermann, who lives in Madison, Wisconsin, said there is a high level of anxiety for voters paying close attention, adding that progressive voters such as herself are hyper aware of the national stakes orbiting the state Supreme Court race.
“This is do or die,” the 47-year-old higher education administrator told USA TODAY. “If we win this, this gives us the momentum to move forward. If we lose this, they’re going to be a lot of really dejected people. I have not seen a joyful voter yet.”
Knowing the importance of this particular race, Jansen said state and local elections often give the best insight into current conditions.
“Our districts are small. The folks who represent these districts, our members there, are embedded in their community in the way that maybe a U.S. Senator or U.S. Senate race is not,” he said.
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“And so,” Jansen added, “I think they’re a really great barometer of where voters are at, and I think can be a really key resource for the party.”
Report card for the Trump administration
The stakes are there for Republicans, too.
The GOP enjoys a slim margin of control in Congress, with a three-seat majority in the Senate and five seats up in the House. Trump is back in the White House, having won the popular vote in November by 1.5 percentage points.
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“But the party is behaving as if it has a mandate for really dramatic action,” Burden told USA TODAY.
“A loss by conservatives in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race would be a big symbolic setback,” he continued. “It would suggest the public is tired of that and wants the administration to stop and go in a different direction.”
Abortion among the issues on the line
Since Wisconsin has a Democratic governor and a Republican-controlled legislature, Burden said, “they’re not doing much productive lawmaking.” This often leaves the state’s Supreme Court to be the deciding voice on policy.
One hot-button issue up before the bench is a decision on a nineteenth-century abortion ban that criminalizes “the willful killing of an unborn quick child” and includes no exceptions for rape or incest.
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Crawford, Democrats’ preferred candidate, has made having a pro-abortion access stance a cornerstone of her campaign. Schimel said previously he believes there is no “constitutional right to abortion.”
Abortion loomed over Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race in 2023, in the immediate wake of the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade and longstanding national abortion precedent. The outcome of that state race two years ago flipped the Wisconsin court from a conservative to liberal majority.
Besides abortion, other issues on voters’ minds and in candidates’ campaign materials include redistricting. Democrats and Republicans are each trying to raise alarms that if their opponents win, they will have control over whether the state and federal district maps are redrawn.
“Democrats are making their intentions crystal clear: the Wisconsin Supreme Court race is their pathway to reclaiming the House majority in 2026,” Mason Di Palma, communications director for the Republican State Leadership Committee, said in a statement. “They plan to wield the court’s influence to manipulate the redistricting process in their favor and we are determined not to let that happen.”
The liberal majority court in 2023 approved changes to the state legislative map, making Wisconsin races more competitive for Democrats. But they declined a request at the time to reconsider the state’s congressional map
