With a $45.6 million domestic opening weekend, Warner Bros.’ “Sinners” has set a new mark for the best box office launch for an original film since the pandemic. But that figure only scratches the surface of how historic the critical and audience acclaim has been for Ryan Coogler’s genre-blending horror tale, and why the R-rated film’s theatrical outlook is looking so bright.

On Rotten Tomatoes, “Sinners” — which takes place in 1930s Mississippi and follows a pair of gangster twins (Michael B. Jordan) who open a juke joint, only to have its grand opening crashed by vampires — has earned a fantastic 98% critics and 97% audience score, the highest RT scores for a studio wide release since Universal/DreamWorks’ “The Wild Robot” last September. “Sinners” also earned an A on CinemaScore, marking the first time in 39 years that a horror film has earned a grade that high from the audience poll that can portend strong word-of-mouth for box office business in weeks to come.

Historically, a B+ is considered a good CinemaScore grade for a horror film. Recent box office hits in the genre like “It” ($329 million domestic), “A Quiet Place” ($188 million) and “The Black Phone” ($90 million) have earned that grade. The list of horror films that have earned an A- is short, and includes classics like “Get Out” ($176 million domestic), “The Conjuring” ($137 million) and “The Silence of the Lambs.”

Before “Sinners,” one had to go back to “Poltergeist” in 1982 and “Aliens” in 1986 to find horror movies that have earned a straight A. It would be enough of an achievement for this film to break the genre’s grading curve in a way that hasn’t been seen for nearly four decades. But Warner Bros. domestic distribution chief Jeff Goldstein pointed out another way “Sinners” defied trends with audience returns on PostTrak.

Hailee Steinfeld in “Sinners” (Warner Bros. Pictures)

“With PostTrak scores, a film usually gets its highest scores on Thursday previews and on Friday, because that’s when the biggest fans show up. Then more general audiences see the film on Saturday and Sunday and it levels out a little,” he explained to TheWrap. “With ‘Sinners,’ we’ve actually seen the PostTrak scores get higher as the weekend has progressed.”

On Thursday, 80% of preview screening moviegoers polled by PostTrak said they would “definitely recommend” the film, the highest rating available in the survey. By Saturday, the percentage of moviegoers who chose “definitely recommend” increased to 84%, with the overall positive rating coming in at a fantastic 92%.

That surge in reception equated to stronger-than-expected grosses on Saturday. After earning a $19 million opening day, Friday-to-Saturday grosses for “Sinners” dropped just 14%, less than the 35% that Warner Bros. had projected.

More than a horror film

Perhaps the biggest reason why “Sinners” struck a chord with critics and audiences alike is because, like some other wildly acclaimed horror hits like “Get Out” and “Aliens,” it manages to blend genres in its story without compromising its horror core.

While Coogler brings plenty of gory kills and action when the vicious vampire Remmick (Jack O’Connell) arrives at the Smokestack Twins’ brand new juke joint, it takes a while for the film to get there. The first hour or so plays like a period drama, immersing the audience in its 1930s Mississippi setting with dialogue-heavy scenes that establish the relationship between Smoke and Stack, played by Michael B. Jordan, and the residents that join them at their new club like the humorous blues musician Delta Slim (Delroy Lindo), Stack’s white-passing ex-girlfriend Mary (Hailee Steinfeld) and the true protagonist of the film, the blues-loving preacher’s son Sammie (Miles Caton).

And even after the vampires make their entrance, Coogler offers thrilling musical numbers with genres ranging from blues to Irish folk, with a time-bending sequence that serves as an ode to the tapestry of Black culture and music as its centerpiece. Then the action kicks into high gear — the climactic fight has the energy and verve of any number of four-quadrant action films.

“Sinners” doesn’t try to please everyone, but it reveals pretty quickly that it has more to offer than one may expect from a horror movie, and its surprises and emotional beats are a big reason why so many fans are gushing about it on social media. (NOTE: spoilers in the examples below).

How big can “Sinners” get?

It’s unheard of for a film with this level of word-of-mouth, and with opening weekend estimates that increase from Friday to Sunday, to not have considerable box office legs in the weeks ahead.

And that is what Warner Bros. and its film chiefs Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy were banking on when they took a big gamble on “Sinners,” which comes with a reported $90 million net budget — 10% of which was financed by Domain Media Capital via a slate-wide deal with Warner — before marketing costs. In the competitive deal that saw “Sinners” land at WB, Warners also agreed to return the rights for the film to Coogler in 2050 and to an undisclosed first-dollar revenue share with the filmmaker.

Sources with knowledge of the production say that the break-even point for “Sinners” is approximately $170 million. Theatrically, “Sinners” may need those legs to get there as the film only made $16 million from overseas grosses.

That was to be expected as the film’s roots in the history of Black American music and culture made its appeal specific to American audiences, similar to how the Chinese film “Ne Zha 2” became the first $2 billion animated hit almost entirely from presenting a tale rooted in Chinese folklore to Chinese audiences with high production value while making less than $50 million outside of its native country.

Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan on the set of “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)

Assuming “Sinners” makes at least three times its opening weekend domestically, it will have made roughly $135 million from U.S. receipts. That would put it in line to turn a profit for Warner after post-theatrical revenue, which will include premium on-demand and pay-one streaming licensing deals with Netflix. Then there’s Coogler’s cinephile fandom that could fuel 4K Blu-ray sales.

Beyond the dollars and cents, “Sinners” could lead to a longer term relationship between Warner Bros. and Coogler, as has been the case with studios who agree to filmmaker-friendly terms with big-name directors. After releasing “Oppenheimer” at Universal after spending most of his career at Warner Bros., Christopher Nolan decided to stay with his new studio for his upcoming adaptation of Homer’s “The Odyssey,” due out next summer. Damien Chazelle, after getting final cut on his box office bomb “Babylon,” signed a first-look deal with Paramount.

When De Luca and Abdy arrived at Warner Bros. in 2023, studio insiders said that the execs made it a top priority to mend the company’s reputation with filmmakers after Nolan’s much-publicized departure. It’s part of the reason why they have given big budgets to passion projects such as “Sinners” and Paul Thomas Anderson’s upcoming “One Battle After Another.”

With “A Minecraft Movie” well on its way to joining the $1 billion club and “Sinners” looking like it has the steam to at least make its money back while establishing itself as the year’s first Oscar contender, the first test of De Luca and Abdy’s risk-taking has been cleared.

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