South Carolina begins its quest to repeat as the national champion, while UConn is trying to reclaim the throne atop women’s college basketball for the first time since 2016. But neither are the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament. In fact, UConn isn’t even a one-seed, but the Huskies are the second-most likely champion — behind South Carolina — per oddsmakers.

Who else is a threat? Well, the top seed in the tournament is UCLA, which is the third-most likely team in the odds. Texas and USC round out the top five most likely champions. Notre Dame comes in next at +900 to win the title, and the next listed team, NC State, is at +3500. As you can see, the women’s tournament is very top-heavy.

So what’s that mean for the futures market? For starters, there is going to be very little value. With the top teams being so much better than teams in a tier below them, upsets are pretty rare. In fact, just three teams below a No. 5 seed have made the Elite Eight since 2021, and no team seeded below a No. 3 seed has made the Final Four since 2016. Part of this reason is because seeds 1-4 get home-court advantage in the first two rounds, but it’s mostly driven by a lack of parity at the top of the sport.

2025 women’s basketball national title odds

My strategy is similar to my men’s futures strategy. I try to build a portfolio of teams that I think have a chance to make a run and spring an upset or two. This list is smaller, sure, but it’s still there. One thing that bums me out is that sportsbooks haven’t listed any odds to make the Sweet 16 like they have for the men’s tournament. But that’s a problem for another day. Let’s get to the bets.

Texas to win the national championship +700 (risk 0.25 units)

While South Carolina and UConn are the two best teams in the betting market and my model, I do not agree with UCLA being the next most likely team to win it all. That title goes to the Longhorns. Texas is in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to my projections. I love being involved with well-rounded teams in March. Making a run to a national title likely means that you’ll have to play a game where you rely on your offense as well as relying on your defense. If you’re balanced, that makes life a bit easier. Granted, the Longhorns are not a great shooting team, but they do a good job of not turning the ball over and absolutely crushing the offensive glass. Texas has three losses this year: on the road at Notre Dame, on the road at South Carolina and on a neutral floor against South Carolina. The Longhorns managed to beat South Carolina at home without making a 3-pointer. If they can avoid a disastrous shooting night, they can win the whole thing and avenge both the losses to Notre Dame and South Carolina.

Duke to win the national championship +5o00 (risk 0.1 units)

Duke to make the Final Four +600 (risk 0.25 units)

I would like to apologize to Dawn Staley and South Carolina because I’m fading them. And that’s terrifying. But Duke is off an ACC Tournament title by beating Notre Dame and NC State. The issue for Kara Lawson’s Blue Devils is on the offensive side of the ball — the defense is a top-five unit — where they rank outside the top 25 in my projections. They’re an OK shooting team, but where they have a chance to make a run is by dominating the offensive glass. They’re one of the best offensive-rebounding teams in the country, and if they can clean up the glass after missed shots, they can beat anyone. For reference, they lost to South Carolina on the road in December by 11. Revenge? Let’s hope so.

Baylor to win the national championship +20000 (risk 0.01 units)

Baylor to make the Final Four +1000 (risk 0.1 units)

Let’s do one long shot. I don’t expect much of this, but Baylor has been much better in the second half of the year than the first half, and I think the Bears are a tiny bit undervalued. They’ve only lost to UCLA (neutral site) and TCU (three times) since early January. The issue with Baylor is that I don’t know if it can compete with the elite teams in the country. But I think they’re in the weakest region. If they can avenge the UCLA loss in the Sweet 16, they’re live for the Final Four. Do I have a ton of faith in this pick? No. But Baylor is pretty good at just about everything, though not elite. If they can get hot and have variance go their way, the Bears can be the first 4-seed or higher to make the Final Four since 2021.

(Photo of Rori Harmon: Sean Rayford / Getty Images)